[opendtv] Re: Selling Out
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2007 16:06:59 -0500
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> IMHO, the all you can watch buffets are going the way of those
> cheap pig-out buffet restaurants. People are now more interested
> in quality and service than quantity.
>
> If a viewer can subscribe to their favorite pre-produced shows
> the only thing left will be live events.
[ ... ]
> Live sports content is still a major draw, but the leagues are
> beginning to understand that they too can go direct,
This is all very confusing, I think.
I see opinion pieces claiming that the 700 MHz spectrum will go to
non-subscription, ad-supported services. This "new trend" sounds mighty
similar to broadcast OTA TV, even if the service might be two-way.
"Going direct," as far as I can tell, can only be done if the business
in question buys OTA spectrum and sets up its own transmitters.
Otherwise, the consumer would get that content via some sort of
subscription service (cable broadband, telco ADSL/IPTV/FiOS, DBS).
Possibly, cable companies and telcos could increase the percentage of
their service dedicated to broadband, and decrease the fraction used for
the "all-you-can-eat buffet." Possibly, this would be in response to
greater demand for individualized, on-demand content from a zillion
possible sources, and decreased demand for the all-you-can-eat buffet
choice. But is there any indication that there's a move to this? Are the
Gen Xers and Gen Yers dropping their expensive premium packages in favor
of broadband-only service and perhaps a basic TV tier? I haven't read
anything to even hint this might be happening.
If it does happen, and that's a big if IMO, then possibly OTA
broadcasters could actually benefit, as you suggested. Especially so if
they beef up their offerings on their multicast channels. A combination
of OTA with good multicast choice, plus a broadband Internet pipe, makes
a whole lot of sense to me.
IP multicast works well in an IPTV walled garden and for live events
over the Internet, but it does not work well for VOD. A chief attraction
of VOD is that it's on each viewer's own schedule. IPv6 should provide
enough addresses to IP multicast to make it globally useful for
non-walled-garden use.
The other thing to consider is whether the preferences of young people
change as they grow up. I think, to some extent, they do. The stereotype
of the young teenager spending hours and hours on the phone, or now even
text messaging, has been around for as many decades as the telephone has
been. The fact that this behavior does not pervade all of the adult
population after so many years is telling.
Bert
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