[opendtv] Re: Pay TV Providers Benefit from DTV Transition
- From: Tom Barry <trbarry@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 13 Jul 2009 20:38:47 -0400
Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
> I've been waiting for some news about what happened to OTA TV usage
> after the transition ended on 12 June. From what this article says, the
> first article I encountered on the sbject, it looks like OTA lost around
> 653,000 households, and that this was 27 percent less of a drop than had
> been anticipated.
>
> Assuming the figure is correct, and assuming 110M TV households, the new
> figure suggests that there's been a 0.6 percent drop overall, in
> households dependent on OTA TV exclusively.
>
> The piece goes on to say that future gains by subscription media will be
> greater, so as to match their predictions, which I find to be a really
> odd assertion.
>
> My expectation, instead, is that as more time passes, people and
> broadcasters will sort out their digital reception and transmission
> problems, and the exodus may not increase so much. Also, the economic
> downturn is probably making OTA households think twice before making
> such a new committment.
>
> Bert
>
> -------------------------------------------
> http://www.tvtechnology.com/article/83644
>
> Pay TV Providers Benefit from DTV Transition
> 07.13.2009.
>
> NEW YORK: Cable, satellite and telcoTV providers will net around 653,000
> new subscribers because of the digital transition. Wachovia analysts had
> previously expected the uptake to reach around 900,000.
>
> Before the June 12 DTV transition, around 18.3 million households were
> thought to be entirely reliant on over-the-air reception. The majority
> obtained digital receivers of some type to adapt. Around 2 million had
> let it slide in the weeks after the transition.
>
> Cable is expected to score most of the broadcast refugees, adding
> 475,000 new subscribers formerly using an antenna. Direct broadcast
> satellite providers should see around 137,000; and telcos, 41,000.
> Wachovia said the pay providers likely saw the greatest gains during the
> first quarter. Comcast took in 90,000; Time Warner Cable, 80,000;
> DirecTV, 47,000; Dish, 35,000; and Cablevision, 50,000.
>
> "We believe cable will see more of an impact from the transition in Q3
> versus Q2... given that fewer households converted to pay TV as a result
> of the transition than we had originally anticipated; that cable
> operators perform their quarterly sub counts one to two weeks prior to
> quarter end; and recent management comments regarding the difficult
> economic environment--which likely offset subscriber gains from the
> digital transition," the analysts wrote.
>
> Consequently, 2Q estimates for Comcast, Time Warner and Cablevision were
> reduced, but slightly increased for Q3. -- Deborah D. McAdams
>
>
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I think part of the confusing statistics and the reason subscription
media picks up more than the number of households lost is very few
households lost ALL their channels. But there were probably many that
lost one or two.
- Tom
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