[opendtv] Pay TV Providers Benefit from DTV Transition
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 13 Jul 2009 12:33:48 -0400
I've been waiting for some news about what happened to OTA TV usage
after the transition ended on 12 June. From what this article says, the
first article I encountered on the sbject, it looks like OTA lost around
653,000 households, and that this was 27 percent less of a drop than had
been anticipated.
Assuming the figure is correct, and assuming 110M TV households, the new
figure suggests that there's been a 0.6 percent drop overall, in
households dependent on OTA TV exclusively.
The piece goes on to say that future gains by subscription media will be
greater, so as to match their predictions, which I find to be a really
odd assertion.
My expectation, instead, is that as more time passes, people and
broadcasters will sort out their digital reception and transmission
problems, and the exodus may not increase so much. Also, the economic
downturn is probably making OTA households think twice before making
such a new committment.
Bert
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http://www.tvtechnology.com/article/83644
Pay TV Providers Benefit from DTV Transition
07.13.2009.
NEW YORK: Cable, satellite and telcoTV providers will net around 653,000
new subscribers because of the digital transition. Wachovia analysts had
previously expected the uptake to reach around 900,000.
Before the June 12 DTV transition, around 18.3 million households were
thought to be entirely reliant on over-the-air reception. The majority
obtained digital receivers of some type to adapt. Around 2 million had
let it slide in the weeks after the transition.
Cable is expected to score most of the broadcast refugees, adding
475,000 new subscribers formerly using an antenna. Direct broadcast
satellite providers should see around 137,000; and telcos, 41,000.
Wachovia said the pay providers likely saw the greatest gains during the
first quarter. Comcast took in 90,000; Time Warner Cable, 80,000;
DirecTV, 47,000; Dish, 35,000; and Cablevision, 50,000.
"We believe cable will see more of an impact from the transition in Q3
versus Q2... given that fewer households converted to pay TV as a result
of the transition than we had originally anticipated; that cable
operators perform their quarterly sub counts one to two weeks prior to
quarter end; and recent management comments regarding the difficult
economic environment--which likely offset subscriber gains from the
digital transition," the analysts wrote.
Consequently, 2Q estimates for Comcast, Time Warner and Cablevision were
reduced, but slightly increased for Q3. -- Deborah D. McAdams
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