[opendtv] Re: News; Music sharing doesn't kill CD sales, study says
- From: "Babbitt, Mike" <MGB@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 31 Mar 2004 10:50:36 -0800
While I appreciate Mr=2E Birkmaier's enthusiasm in distributing these=0D=0A=
interesting factoids, I would appreciate being removed from this general=0D=
=0Aemail list as my inbox is quickly being overrun and my delete key is=0D=
=0Awearing out=2E=0D=0A=0D=0ABest regards,=0D=0AMike Babbitt =0D=0ABroadcas=
t Field Service Engineer =0D=0ADolby Laboratories =0D=0A100 Potrero Ave=2E =
=0D=0ASan Francisco, CA 94103 =0D=0AMgb@dolby=2Ecom =0D=0A415-645-4000 fax =
=0D=0A415-645-5108 voice =0D=0A=0D=0A=0D=0A-----Original Message-----=0D=0A=
From: opendtv-bounce@freelists=2Eorg [mailto:opendtv-bounce@freelists=2Eorg=
]=0D=0AOn Behalf Of Craig Birkmaier=0D=0ASent: Wednesday, March 31, 2004 10=
:22 AM=0D=0ATo: OpenDTV Mail List=0D=0ASubject: [opendtv] News; Music shari=
ng doesn't kill CD sales, study says=0D=0A=0D=0AMusic sharing doesn't kill =
CD sales, study says=0D=0A=0D=0AMarch 31, 2004 12:00am=0D=0ASource: CNET Ne=
tworks, Inc=2E=0D=0A=0D=0A2004-03-29, CNET Networks: A study of=3D20=0D=0Af=
ile-sharing's effects on music sales says online=3D20=0D=0Amusic trading ap=
pears to have had little part in=3D20=0D=0Athe recent slide in CD sales=2E=
=0D=0A=0D=0A=3D46or the study, released Monday, researchers at=3D20=0D=0AHa=
rvard University and the University of North=3D20=0D=0ACarolina tracked mus=
ic downloads over 17 weeks in=3D20=0D=0A2002, matching data on file transfe=
rs with actual=3D20=0D=0Amarket performance of the songs and albums being=
=3D20=0D=0Adownloaded=2E Even high levels of file-swapping=3D20=0D=0Aseemed=
to translate into an effect on album sales=3D20=0D=0Athat was "statistical=
ly indistinguishable from=3D20=0D=0Azero," they wrote=2E=0D=0A=0D=0A"We fin=
d that file sharing has only had a limited=3D20=0D=0Aeffect on record sales=
," the study's authors=3D20=0D=0Awrote=2E "While downloads occur on a vast =
scale,=3D20=0D=0Amost users are likely individuals who would not=3D20=0D=0A=
have bought the album even in the absence of file=3D20=0D=0Asharing=2E"=0D=
=0A=0D=0AThe study, the most detailed economic modeling=3D20=0D=0Asurvey to=
use data obtained directly from=3D20=0D=0Afile-sharing networks, is sure t=
o rekindle=3D20=0D=0Adebates over the effects of widely used software=3D20=
=0D=0Asuch as Kazaa or Morpheus on an ailing record=3D20=0D=0Abusiness=2E=
=0D=0A=0D=0ABig record labels have seen their sales slide=3D20=0D=0Aprecipi=
tously in the past several years, and have=3D20=0D=0Ablamed the falling rev=
enue in large part on=3D20=0D=0Arampant free music downloads online=2E Othe=
rs have=3D20=0D=0Apointed to additional factors, such as lower=3D20=0D=0Aho=
usehold spending during the recession, and=3D20=0D=0Aincreased competition =
from other entertainment=3D20=0D=0Aforms such as DVDs and video games, each=
of which=3D20=0D=0Ahave grown over the same time period=2E=0D=0A=0D=0AExec=
utives at file-sharing companies welcomed the=3D20=0D=0Asurvey, saying it s=
hould help persuade reluctant=3D20=0D=0Arecord company executives to use pe=
er-to-peer=3D20=0D=0Anetworks as distribution channels for music=0D=0A=0D=
=0AThe study, performed by Harvard Business School=3D20=0D=0Aassociate prof=
essor Felix Oberholzer and=3D20=0D=0AUniversity of North Carolina, Chapel H=
ill=3D20=0D=0Aassociate professor Koleman Strumpf, used logs=3D20=0D=0Afrom=
two OpenNap servers in late 2002 to observe=3D20=0D=0Aabout 1=2E75 million=
downloads over their 17 week=3D20=0D=0Asample period=2E=0D=0A=0D=0AThat sa=
mple revealed interesting behavioral, as=3D20=0D=0Awell as economic, data=
=2E Researchers found that=3D20=0D=0Athe average user logged in only twice =
during that=3D20=0D=0Aperiod, downloading about 17 songs=2E Some people=3D2=
0=0D=0Avastly overshot that average, however--one user=3D20=0D=0Aapparently=
logged in 71 times, downloading more=3D20=0D=0Athan 5,000 songs=2E=0D=0A=
=0D=0AThe two professors narrowed their sample base by=3D20=0D=0Achoosing a=
random sample of 500 albums from the=3D20=0D=0Asales charts of various mus=
ic genres, and then=3D20=0D=0Acompared the sales of these albums to the num=
ber=3D20=0D=0Aof associated downloads=2E=0D=0A=0D=0AEven in the most pessim=
istic version of their=3D20=0D=0Amodel, they found that it would take about=
5,000=3D20=0D=0Adownloads to displace sales of just one physical=3D20=0D=
=0ACD, the authors wrote=2E Despite the huge scale of=3D20=0D=0Adownloading=
worldwide, that would be only a tiny=3D20=0D=0Acontribution to the overall=
slide in album sales=3D20=0D=0Aover the past several years, they said=2E=
=0D=0A=0D=0AMoreover, their data seemed to show that=3D20=0D=0Adownloads co=
uld even have a slight positive=3D20=0D=0Aeffect on the sales of the top al=
bums, the=3D20=0D=0Aresearchers said=2E=0D=0A=0D=0AThe study is unlikely to=
be the last word on the=3D20=0D=0Aissue=2E Previous studies have been rele=
ased=3D20=0D=0Ashowing that file sharing had both positive and=3D20=0D=0Ane=
gative effects on music sales=2E=0D=0A=0D=0AThe Recording Industry Associat=
ion of America was=3D20=0D=0Aquick to dismiss the results as inconsistent w=
ith=3D20=0D=0Aearlier findings=2E=0D=0A=0D=0A"Countless well-respected grou=
ps and analysts,=3D20=0D=0Aincluding Edison Research, Forrester, and the=3D=
20=0D=0AUniversity of Texas, among others, have all=3D20=0D=0Adetermined=0D=
=0A=0D=0Athat illegal file sharing has adversely impacted=3D20=0D=0Athe sal=
es of CDs," RIAA spokeswoman Amy Weiss=3D20=0D=0Asaid in a statement=2E "Ou=
r own surveys show that=3D20=0D=0Athose who are downloading more are buying=
less=2E"=3D20=0D=0A=3D2Eend (paragraph)<<CNET Networks -- 03/29/04>>=0D=0A=
=0D=0A<< Copyright =3DA92004 CNET Networks, Inc=2E >>=0D=0A=0D=0A=0D=0A=0D=
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