[opendtv] Re: How much TV program distribution the MVPDs are providing

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2015 20:43:42 -0400

Regards
Regards
Craig

On Sep 1, 2015, at 7:13 PM, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Short answer, maybe 1/3 of the total, it turns out.

Using Craig's source:

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/247581/time-shifted-tv-is-the-default.html

53% of TV is watched non-linear, meaning 47% is watched linear.

That 47% watched linear is made of some OTA TV and some TVE linear streaming,
in addition to the MVPDs own linear streams.

Good so far...

Since this breakdown is not documented in the above link, let's be very
conservative and postulate that only 5% is watched OTA, and 5% is streamed to
mobile or other devices, using TVE or CBS All Access.

Now it does not seem hard to believe that only 37% of that linear TV program
consumption is actually using MPEG-2 TS broadcast streams from the MVPDs, and
the rest either IP or OTA.

Now you drove straight into the ditch.

What did the article say about the 53%?

On to the non-linear viewing.

The above link says that 53%, of that 53% non-linear viewing, is provided by
"DVR and VOD." Then down at the bottom, it breaks down what that means. They
are talking about shows recorded on DVR or on TiVO, and some also using the
presumably in-system VOD proprietary service.

You're getting warm.

What is the source of the content recorded on a MVPD DVR or a Tivo?

For most of what the article discussed it is the MPEG-2 transports streams that
would otherwise be viewed "live." The Tivo Roamio can record content from an
antenna, a MVPD, and it allows access to a variety of OTT services - there is
little reason to record Programs from the OTT services as most are available
on demand.

Bottom line, most of the 53% is just time shifted viewing of the live linear
streams.

Well, I'll assign all of the "DVR/TiVO and VOD" to be from the MVPD source.
So that says that 28% of MVPD STB time is taken up with handling of on demand
TV programming, while we already said that 37% was taken up with linear
program carriage.
This is a total misrepresentation. There is nothing in common between the 47%
viewed live and the 53% that is time shifted.

So in total, the MVPD STB is processing maybe 37 + 29 = 66% of TV programs
consumed by the public.
I don't agree with your math, but this is closer to reality.

About 80% of U.S. homes subscribe to a MVPD service. But about 40% of U.S.
homes subscribe to Netflix. Obviously there is significant overlap.

The eMarketer study I mentioned yesterday substantiates the percentage of total
streaming viewing to be 23%. So if you want to be generous, you could say that
77% of the viewing of the 80% that subscribe to a MVPD service is live, which
is 61%.

Obviously this number is low as it does not account for people using antennas ,
but I think it fair to say that the MVPDs are delivering about 2/3s of the TV
viewed in the U.S.


Now on to the question of how much TV programming is carried by IP.

I have postulated that 5% of linear viewing is carried by IP. Add to that the
47% of on demand viewing, the fraction not being handled by the MVPD STB.
Since 53% of all TV consumption is time shifted, and 47% of that time shifted
TV uses IP, that means that a very conservative estimate of IP use is 30% as
of today. 25% for time shifted and 5% for linear.

You are still confusing the numbers.

I think the real number is close to 23%.

I would point out that two days ago you were claiming it was more than 50%.
Yesterday it was 40%. Today you claim 30%

Welcome back to reality!

But let's not forget that AT&T Uverse and Verizon FiOS both use IP for their
VOD in-system service, as opposed to MPEG-2 TS on demand streams. So that 30%
figure is sure to be low.

This is irrelevant. Some cable systems are using IP too. But this is all on the
private side of the MVPD system, not the broadband side. The TVE apps do use
the Internet.

So you can begin to understand the complexity in measuring all of this stuff.

There you have it. It is most likely the case that the amount of TV
programming being sent as linear streams, through MVPD STBs, is about the
same as the amount of TV programming sent over IP, as of the beginning of the
year. Pretty amazing, eh?
Not even close, by your own numbers.

And I was beginning to think that there was some hope...


Regards
Craig

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