Short answer, maybe 1/3 of the total, it turns out.
Using Craig's source:
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/247581/time-shifted-tv-is-the-default.html
53% of TV is watched non-linear, meaning 47% is watched linear.
That 47% watched linear is made of some OTA TV and some TVE linear streaming,
in addition to the MVPDs own linear streams.
Since this breakdown is not documented in the above link, let's be very
conservative and postulate that only 5% is watched OTA, and 5% is streamed to
mobile or other devices, using TVE or CBS All Access.
Now it does not seem hard to believe that only 37% of that linear TV program
consumption is actually using MPEG-2 TS broadcast streams from the MVPDs, and
the rest either IP or OTA.
On to the non-linear viewing.
The above link says that 53%, of that 53% non-linear viewing, is provided by
"DVR and VOD." Then down at the bottom, it breaks down what that means. They
are talking about shows recorded on DVR or on TiVO, and some also using the
presumably in-system VOD proprietary service.
Well, I'll assign all of the "DVR/TiVO and VOD" to be from the MVPD source. So
that says that 28% of MVPD STB time is taken up with handling of on demand TV
programming, while we already said that 37% was taken up with linear program
carriage.
So in total, the MVPD STB is processing maybe 37 + 29 = 66% of TV programs
consumed by the public.
Now on to the question of how much TV programming is carried by IP.
I have postulated that 5% of linear viewing is carried by IP. Add to that the
47% of on demand viewing, the fraction not being handled by the MVPD STB. Since
53% of all TV consumption is time shifted, and 47% of that time shifted TV uses
IP, that means that a very conservative estimate of IP use is 30% as of today.
25% for time shifted and 5% for linear.
But let's not forget that AT&T Uverse and Verizon FiOS both use IP for their
VOD in-system service, as opposed to MPEG-2 TS on demand streams. So that 30%
figure is sure to be low.
There you have it. It is most likely the case that the amount of TV programming
being sent as linear streams, through MVPD STBs, is about the same as the
amount of TV programming sent over IP, as of the beginning of the year. Pretty
amazing, eh?
Bert
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