[opendtv] Re: Analyst predicts stalemate in next-gen DVD war
- From: Tom Barry <trbarry@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2006 20:24:22 -0400
It may well end in a stalemate but the first round is going pretty
conclusively to HD-DVD. If you check AVS Forum you will find the BluRay
fans are canceling their pre-orders and returning their Samsung players
in droves. <http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=690621>
It turns out that only single layer BD discs are currently available,
leaving only 25 MB on a platter. But the first gen discs are using only
MPEG-2 and that just doesn't seem to be enough space, at least given the
Sony encoder being used.
The net result is that at the current time BD costs about twice as much
as HD-DVD and the movies on average do not look anywhere near as good.
Who knows, maybe BD will ship dual layer with AVC encoding real soon
now. But otherwise I think they are in real trouble.
- Tom
Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
> Seems to me that even Beta vs VHS would have been a stalemate, had
> players been able to play both formats.
>
> The reason 45s and 33 1/3 LPs coexisted for so many years was because
> the vast majority of players sold from 1949 or 1950 could play both
> formats. (They would probably still be going strong, were it not for the
> fact that the CD introduced an incompatible physical format.) 78s were
> another matter. Tonearms optimized for LPs could play 45s well enough,
> but really could not play 78s well. And vice versa.
>
> Bert
>
> -------------------------------
> Analyst predicts stalemate in next-gen DVD war
>
> Dylan McGrath
> (06/23/2006 8:06 PM EDT)
> URL: http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=3D189601178
>
> SAN FRANCISCO - The conventional wisdom holds that, much like the
> Betamax-VHS war of the early 1980s, one format will emerge the winner of
> the HD DVD versus Blu-Ray next-generation DVD format battle that is
> shaping up to start this summer. But that's not necessarily the case,
> according to at least one industry analyst.
>
> Chris Crotty, senior analyst of the consumer electronics segment at
> market research firm iSuppli Corp., believes the DVD format war will
> result in stalemate, at least in the short term.
>
> For one thing, according to Crotty, neither technology offers a distinct
> technology advantage over the other. "It's not as if you can point to
> one of them and say, 'this is significantly better, for these reasons,'
> " Crotty told EE Times Friday (June 23).
>
> Both formats, for example, are build on the Advanced Access Content
> System (AACS), the new standard for content distribution and digital
> rights management intended to limit sharing and copying of the next
> generation of DVDs.
>
> A second rationale for Crotty's predicted stalemate is content
> providers. For now, some have said they will publish in both formats,
> and some say they will publish in only one.
>
> "I personally think that studios are very interested in making money,"
> Crotty said. "You have to think that the smart studios are going to have
> to ask themselves very seriously, 'are we leaving money on the table?'"
>
> Just as video game companies routinely publish games for use on
> different gaming systems, the majority of studios will soon be
> publishing movies for both HD DVD and Blu-Ray, Crotty said, adding that
> the resources and effort required to publish on two DVD formats are
> significantly less than programming video games to work on other
> consoles.
>
> Crotty acknowledged that publishing in both formats would be tougher for
> a company like Sony Pictures. Sony Corp. and Matsushita Electric
> Industrial Co. are the primary backers of the Blu-Ray Disk format.
>
> Crotty said that it's likely that forward-thinking consumer electronics
> companies will offer DVD players that support both formats by the
> holiday season. Companies like South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co.
> Ltd. and LG Electronics Co. Ltd. are rumored to be developing
> dual-format players, he said.
>
> HD DVD versus Blu-Ray will be a lot different than Beta versus VHS,
> Crotty said. For one thing, unlike the 1980s, when VHS bested Beta,
> which was considered to be the better technology, through sheer
> marketing efforts, today's consumers have access to a great deal more
> information through the Internet. Once companies bring to market players
> that support both formats, it will also be less of an issue, he said.
>
> "The consumers in the market will not tolerate two formats, unless it
> doesn't matter, unless it's moot," Crotty said.
>
> Toshiba, the main backer of HD DVD, has fired the first shot in the
> next-generation DVD format war. The company got the technology out of
> the gate ahead of its Blu-Ray rivals and is now offering an HD DVD
> player for $499 that, an iSuppli "teardown" analysis revealed, actually
> contains nearly $700 worth of components. Toshiba's willingness to take
> a loss of nearly $200 per unit is a clear indication that the company is
> trying to press its first-to-market advantage by permeating the market
> with HD DVD. But Crotty noted that the strategy may backfire, invoking
> the law of unintended consequences.
>
> "There are already reports that companies that sell high-end computers
> are buying the player to rip out the drive and install it in a
> computer," Crotty said. "The only reason they can do that is because
> Toshiba has priced it so low."
>
> Companies such as Zoran Corp. are currently developing chip sets for
> next-generation DVD players that are "format agnostic," Crotty noted.
>
> Toshiba and its Blu-Ray rivals tried last year to reach a compromise on
> the next-generation DVD standard. But the effortsbroke down last May,
> with each side saying they would go ahead with their own
> formats-creating a situation where consumers will be forced to choose
> between equipment and content for two different formats.
>
> "If you just stand back from a business strategy standpoint, it's a
> little absurd to think, 'we're going to win,' given how entrenched the
> other side is," Crotty said. He acknowledged that one format may
> eventually win out, noting that each has some subtle non-technology
> advantages.
>
> Crotty pointed to a surprising factor that could influence the ultimate
> outcome of the DVD format war. "Some people will argue that the ultimate
> winner in these situation is based on what the adult film business
> adopts," he said, noting that that industry sells a very high volume of
> DVDs.
>
> All material on this site Copyright 2006 CMP Media LLC. All rights
> reserved.
>
>
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