[nasional_list] [ppiindia] Liberalisme dan Mahalnya Makanan - Re: [LISI] The end of cheap food & World food stocks dwindling rapidly
- From: A Nizami <nizaminz@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: LISI@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, ekonomi-nasional@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, ppiindia@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 27 Dec 2007 23:23:59 -0800 (PST)
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** Beasiswa dalam negeri dan luar negeri S1 S2 S3 dan post-doctoral
scholarship, kunjungi
http://informasi-beasiswa.blogspot.com **Iya. Dengan sistem ekonomi liberal
memang para pemilik modal besar makin menggila. Mereka merambah bidang
pertanian dan peternakan yang dulu hanya dikelola oleh para petani dan peternak
kecil yang jauh dari bidang ekspor. Produk para petani/peternak kecil dilempar
ke pasar dalam negeri dengan harga yang terjangkau.
Namun ketika pengusaha besar memasuki sektor pertanian dan peternakan, mereka
paham benar dengan ekspor. Ketika harga produk pertanian/peternakan lebih
tinggi di luar negeri, mereka lebih memilih mengekspor barangnya ke luar negeri
sehingga rakyat dalam negeri kesulitan dalam mencari makanan. Jika pun ada
harus membayar dengan harga yang mahal.
Sebagai contoh produk kelapa sawit. Ketika harga luar negeri lebih menarik,
para pengusaha besar kelapa sawit segera mengekspor produknya ke luar negeri.
Mereka baru mau menjual produk mereka ke dalam negeri kalau rakyat membayar
dengan harga yang sama dengan harga luar negeri. Padahal kalau mereka dipaksa
menyamakan UMR buruh mereka hingga sama dengan UMR luar negeri seperti AS,
Kanada, Eropa, atau Australia mereka tidak akan mau.
Harga minyak kelapa pun membubung dari rp 6 ribu/kg hingga rp 11 ribu/kg.
Saat ini pun di pasar harga barang2 melonjak hebat.
Jadi pernyataan Sri Mulyani yang mengatakan perekonomian naik 6% tidak
berdampak apa2 bagi mayoritas rakyat Indonesia. Mencari kerja masih susah, gaji
tidak naik, sementara harga barang naik lebih dari 10% setiap tahun.
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----- Original Message ----
From: sidqy suyitno <sidqy_suyitno@xxxxxxxxx>
To: sidqy_suyitno@xxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, December 28, 2007 1:38:54 PM
Subject: [LISI] The end of cheap food & World food stocks dwindling rapidly
The end of cheap
food
Dec 6th 2007
From The Economist print edition http://www.economis t.com/opinion/
displaystory. cfm?story_ id=10252015
Rising food
prices are a threat to many; they also present the world with an enormous
opportunity
FOR as long as most people can remember,
food has been getting cheaper and farming has been in decline. In 1974-2005
food prices on world markets fell by three-quarters in real terms. Food today
is so cheap that the West is battling gluttony even as it scrapes piles of
half-eaten leftovers into the bin.
That is why this year?s price rise
has been so extraordinary. Since the spring, wheat prices have doubled and
almost every crop under the sun?maize, milk, oilseeds, you name it?is at or
near a peak in nominal terms. The
Economist?s food-price index is higher today than at any time since
it was created in 1845 (see chart). Even in real terms, prices have jumped by
75% since 2005. No doubt farmers will meet higher prices with investment and
more production, but dearer food is likely to persist for years (see article).
That is because ?agflation? is underpinned by long-running changes in diet that
accompany the growing wealth of emerging economies?the Chinese consumer who ate
20kg (44lb) of meat in 1985 will scoff over 50kg of the stuff this year. That
in turn pushes up demand for grain: it takes 8kg of grain to produce one of
beef.
But the rise in
prices is also the self-inflicted result of America?s reckless ethanol
subsidies. This year
biofuels will take a third of America?s (record) maize harvest. That affects
food
markets directly: fill up an SUV?s fuel tank with ethanol and you have used
enough maize to feed a person for a year. And it affects them indirectly, as
farmers switch to maize from other crops. The 30m tonnes of extra maize going
to ethanol this year amounts to half the fall in the world?s overall grain
stocks.
Dearer food has
the capacity to do enormous good and enormous harm. It will hurt urban
consumers, especially in poor countries, by increasing the price of what is
already the most expensive item in their household budgets. It will benefit
farmers and agricultural communities by increasing the rewards of their labour;
in many poor rural places it will boost the most important source of jobs and
economic growth.
Although the cost
of food is determined by fundamental patterns of demand and supply, the balance
between good and ill also depends in part on governments. If politicians do
nothing, or the wrong things, the world faces more misery, especially among the
urban poor. If they get policy right, they can help increase the wealth of the
poorest nations, aid the rural poor, rescue farming from subsidies and
neglect?and minimise the harm to the slum-dwellers and landless labourers. So
far, the auguries look gloomy.
In the trough
That, at least,
is the lesson of half a century of food policy. Whatever the supposed
threat?the lack of food security, rural poverty, environmental stewardship?the
world seems to have only one solution: government intervention. Most of the
subsidies and trade barriers have come at a huge cost. The trillions of dollars
spent supporting farmers in rich countries have led to higher taxes, worse
food, intensively farmed monocultures, overproduction and world prices that
wreck the lives of poor farmers in the emerging markets. And for what? Despite
the help, plenty of Western farmers have been beset by poverty. Increasing
productivity means you need fewer farmers, which steadily drives the least
efficient off the land. Even a vast subsidy cannot reverse that.
With agflation,
policy has reached a new level of self-parody. Take America?s supposedly
verdant ethanol subsidies. It
is not just that they are supporting a relatively dirty version of ethanol (far
better to import Brazil?s sugar-based liquor); they are also
offsetting older grain subsidies that lowered prices by encouraging
overproduction.
Intervention multiplies like lies. Now countries such as Russia and Venezuela
have imposed price controls?an aid to
consumers?to offset America?s aid to ethanol producers. Meanwhile, high
grain prices are persuading people to clear forests to plant more maize.
Dearer food is a
chance to break this dizzying cycle. Higher market prices make it possible to
reduce subsidies without hurting incomes. A farm bill is now going through
America?s Congress. The European Union has promised
a root-and-branch review (not yet reform) of its farm-support scheme. The
reforms of the past few decades have, in fact, grappled with the rich world?s
farm programmes?but only timidly. Now comes the chance for politicians to show
that they are serious when they say they want to put agriculture right.
Cutting
rich-world subsidies and trade barriers would help taxpayers; it could revive
the stalled Doha round of world trade talks, boosting the
world economy; and, most important, it would directly help many of the world?s
poor. In terms of economic policy, it is hard to think of a greater good.
Where
government help is really needed
Three-quarters of
the world?s poor live in rural areas. The depressed world prices created by
farm policies over the past few decades have had a devastating effect. There
has been a long-term fall in investment in farming and the things that sustain
it, such as irrigation. The share of public spending going to agriculture in
developing countries has fallen by half since 1980. Poor countries that used to
export food now import it.
Reducing
subsidies in the West would help reverse this. The World Bank reckons that if
you free up agricultural trade, the prices of things poor countries specialise
in (like cotton) would rise and developing countries would capture the gains by
increasing exports. And because farming accounts for two-thirds of jobs in the
poorest countries, it is the most important contributor to the early stages of
economic growth. According to the World Bank, the really poor get three times
as much extra income from an increase in farm productivity as from the same
gain in industry or services. In the long term, thriving farms and open markets
provide a secure food supply.
However, there is
an obvious catch?and one that justifies government help. High prices have a
mixed impact on poverty: they hurt anyone who loses more from dear food than he
gains from a higher income. And that means over a billion urban consumers (and
some landless labourers), many of whom are politically influential in poor
countries. Given the speed of this year?s food-price rises, governments in
emerging markets have no alternative but to try to soften the blow.
Where they can,
these governments should subsidise the incomes of the poor, rather than food
itself, because that minimises price distortions. Where food subsidies are
unavoidable, they should be temporary and targeted on the poor. So far, most
government interventions in the poor world have failed these tests: politicians
who seem to think cheap food part of the natural order of things have slapped
on price controls and export restraints, which hurt farmers and will almost
certainly fail.
Over the past few
years, a sense has grown that the rich are hogging the world?s wealth. In poor
countries, widening income inequality takes the form of a gap between city and
country: incomes have been rising faster for urban dwellers than for rural
ones. If handled properly, dearer food is a once-in-a-generatio n chance to
narrow income disparities and to wean rich farmers from subsidies and help poor
ones. The ultimate reward, though, is not merely theirs: it is to make the
world richer and fairer.
An
expensive dinner
Nov 3rd 2007
From
Economist.com http://www.economis t.com/world/ international/ displaystory.
cfm?story_ id=10085859
Alarm is
growing about rising food prices
?THE world?s most
vulnerable who spend 60% of their income on food have been priced out of the
food market,? is the alarming warning from Josette Sheeran, head of the United
Nations? World Food Programme (WFP). As the price of wheat, maize, corn and
other commodities that make up the world?s basic foodstuffs is soaring the
poorest people in the poorest countries are the hardest hit. And as prices
shoot up helping them is getting tougher too. The WFP?s food costs increased by
more than 50% over the past five years. Ms Sheeran predicts that they will
increase by another 35% in the next couple of years too.
For many years
the least developed nations have worried about food security, especially
countries at war and those battling droughts and other climatic hardships.
Meanwhile the world?s richest nations have produced more than enough for their
needs and spent more time and effort worrying about the problems related to an
abundance of food. These range from the health risks associated with ballooning
rates of obesity to subsidies for uncompetitive farmers, particularly from the
European Union. Despite efforts to tackle spending on farm subsidies, over 40%
of the entire EU budget still goes towards supporting agriculture.
?Until two years
ago we had too much food, but it was badly and unequally distributed,? says
Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the intergovernmental group for grains trade
at the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), a UN agency. Today about 850m
people, mostly women and children, remain chronically hungry while 1.1 billion
are obese or overweight.
Food is scarcer
now thanks to market liberalisation, which helped to cut excess production and
lower stocks. At the same time demand for grains and other food commodities has
shot up in China, India and other countries with rapidly growing
economies. The biofuel industry is gobbling up an increasing share of the corn
and sugar crops. And this year floods and droughts around the world destroyed
much of the harvest in countries such as Britain, which had one of the wettest
years in
recent history, and Australia, which had one of the driest.
Concern about the
cost of food is even spreading beyond the world?s poor countries. Last month
Italians took to the street in Rome and Milan to protest against an increase in
pasta
prices. They are eating less too: Italians? pasta and bread consumption dropped
7.4% and milk consumption fell by 2.6% in the first eight months of the year
according to Coldiretti, a farmers? association.
Efforts to find
solutions have been complicated by political manipulation. This month the
Russian government introduced price controls in the run-up to parliamentary
elections in December. This will temporarily help the country?s poor but leave
them more exposed to the impact of price increases after controls are lifted.
Jacques Diouf, head of the FAO, predicts that more countries will introduce
food-price controls while others will scrap import tariffs on food or increase
subsidies for food production.
And efforts to
alleviate one problem, finding an alternative to oil, has brought strong
condemnation from a proponent of another, feeding the world?s starving poor.
Jean Ziegler, the UN?s independent expert on the right to food, calls the
growing use of crops to replace petrol as a crime against humanity and wants a
five-year moratorium on biofuel production.
Periods of high
prices followed by times of low prices are common in agricultural markets. What
makes the current cycle different from previous periods of high prices is the
rise has hit nearly all food commodities. In the past farmers producing a
plentiful crop attracting low prices would switch to one in shorter supply that
would earn them more. And stocks are so tight at the moment that there is not
much of a buffer if bad weather next year effects crops again, according to the
FAO?s Mr Abassian.
Prices will
probably remain high for the next year or two while the world is adapting to
food scarcity. What happens next will reveal the resilience of the world?s
food-supply system, predicts Ms Sheeran. Her programme, she says, is battling
with a host of adverse circumstances. In addition to higher prices for food the
WFP has to cope with climatic change, a rapidly increasing world population and
the decline in the rich world?s aid budgets. Ms Sheeran refers to this as the
post food-surplus era. The fat probably won?t get any thinner but the effects
on the world?s poorest and hungriest could be devastating.
World
food stocks dwindling rapidly, UN warns
By Elisabeth
Rosenthal
Published:
December 17, 2007 http://www.iht. com/articles/ 2007/12/17/ europe/food. php
ROME: In an "unforeseen and
unprecedented" shift, the world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food
prices are soaring to historic levels, the top food and agriculture official of
the United Nations warned Monday.
The changes created
"a very serious risk that fewer people will be able to get food,"
particularly in the developing world, said Jacques Diouf, head of the UN Food
and Agriculture Organization.
The agency's food
price index rose by more than 40 percent this year, compared with 9 percent the
year before - a rate that was already unacceptable, he said. New figures show
that the total cost of foodstuffs imported by the neediest countries rose 25
percent, to $107 million, in the last year.
At the same time,
reserves of cereals are severely depleted, FAO records show. World wheat stores
declined 11 percent this year, to the lowest level since 1980. That corresponds
to 12 weeks of the world's total consumption - much less than the average of 18
weeks consumption in storage during the period 2000-2005. There are only 8
weeks of corn left, down from 11 weeks in the earlier period.
Prices of wheat
and oilseeds are at record highs, Diouf said Monday. Wheat prices have risen by
$130 per ton, or 52 percent, since a year ago. U.S. wheat futures broke $10 a
bushel for the
first time Monday, the agricultural equivalent of $100 a barrel oil. (Page 16)
Diouf blamed a
confluence of recent supply and demand factors for the crisis, and he predicted
that those factors were here to stay. On the supply side, these include the
early effects of global warming, which has decreased crop yields in some
crucial places, and a shift away from farming for human consumption toward
crops for biofuels and cattle feed. Demand for grain is increasing with the
world
population, and more is diverted to feed cattle as the population of upwardly
mobile meat-eaters grows.
"We're
concerned that we are facing the perfect storm for the world's hungry,"
said Josette Sheeran, executive director of the World Food Program, in a
telephone interview. She said that her agency's food procurement costs had gone
up 50 percent in the past 5 years and that some poor people are being
"priced out of the food market."
To make matters
worse, high oil prices have doubled shipping costs in the past year, putting
enormous stress on poor nations that need to import food as well as the
humanitarian agencies that provide it.
"You can
debate why this is all happening, but what's most important to us is that it's
a long-term trend, reversing decades of decreasing food prices," Sheeran
said.
Climate
specialists say that the vulnerability will only increase as further effects of
climate change are felt. "If there's a significant change in climate in
one of our high production areas, if there is a disease that effects a major
crop, we are in a very risky situation," said Mark Howden of the
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Canberra.
Already
"unusual weather events," linked to climate change - such as
droughts, floods and storms - have decreased production in important exporting
countries like Australia and Ukraine, Diouf said.
In Southern Australia, a significant reduction in rainfall in the
past few years led some farmers to sell their land and move to Tasmania, where
water is more reliable, said Howden,
one of the authors of a recent series of papers in the Procedings of the
National Academy of Sciences on climate change and the world food supply.
"In the U.S., Australia, and Europe, there's a very substantial capacity to
adapt
to the effects on food - with money, technology, research and
development, " Howden said. "In the developing world, there
isn't."
Sheeran said,
that on a recent trip to Mali, she was told that food stocks were at an
all time low. The World Food Program feeds millions of children in schools and
people with HIV/AIDS. Poor nutrition in these groups increased the risk serious
disease and death.
Diouf suggested
that all countries and international agencies would have to "revisit"
agricultural and aid policies they had adopted "in a different economic
environment. " For example, with food and oil prices approaching record, it
may not make sense to send food aid to poorer countries, but instead to focus
on helping farmers grow food locally.
FAO plans to
start a new initiative that will offer farmers in poor countries vouchers that
can be redeemed for seeds and fertilizer, and will try to help them adapt to
climate change.
The recent
scientific papers concluded that farmers could adjust to 1 degree Celsius (1.8
degrees Fahrenheit) to 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees) of warming by switching
to more resilient species, changing planting times, or storing water for
irrigation, for example.
But that after
that, "all bets are off," said Francesco Tubiello, of Columbia University
Earth Institute. "Many people assume that we will never have a problem
with food production on a global scale, but there is a strong potential for
negative surprises."
In Europe, officials said they were already adjusting
policies to the reality of higher prices. The European Union recently suspended
a "set-aside" of land for next year - a longstanding program that
essentially paid farmers to leave 10 percent of their land untilled as a way to
increase farm prices and reduce surpluses. Also, starting in January, import
tariffs on all cereal will be eliminated for six months, to make it easier for
European countries to buy grain from elsewhere. But that may make it even
harder for poor countries to obtain the grain they need.
In an effort to
promote free markets, the European Union has been in the process of reducing
farm subsidies and this has accelerated the process.
"It's much
easier to do with the new economics," said Michael Mann a spokesman for
the EU agriculture commission. "We saw this coming to a certain extent,
but we are surprised at how quickly it is happening."
But he noted that
farm prices the last few decades have been lower than at any time in history,
so the change seems extremely dramatic.
Diouf noted that
there had been "tension and political unrest related to food markets"
in a number of poor countries this year, including Morocco, Senegal and
Mauritania. "We need to play a catalytic role to
quickly boost crop production in the most affected countries," he said.
Part of the
current problem is an outgrowth of prosperity. More people in the world now eat
meat, diverting grain from humans to livestock. A more complicated issue is the
use of crops to make biofuels, which are often heavily subsidized. A major
factor in rising corn prices globally is that many farmers in the United States
are now selling their corn to make
subsidized ethanol.
Mann said the
European Union had intentionally set low targets for biofuel use - 10 per cent
by 2020 - to limit food price rises and that it plans to import some biofuel.
"We don't want all our farmers switching from food to biofuel," he
said.
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