Hi Steve, yes I think this virus has changed everything people don’t want to
ride mass transit buses etc. with a lot of people and now they are not allowed
to have many people on board anyway and they cannot gather in groups of no more
than 10 so yes this virus has definitely changed a lot of things things will
never be the same again but I’m afraid we are looking at the new normal from
here on in. And I believe the masks are going to be a part of us for a long
time to come. Peg.
On May 29, 2020, at 3:11 PM, Steve <pipeguy920@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I think this virus has changed the equation; people are more unlikely to ride
mass-transit and risk exposure to others' germs while this virus is still
rampant.
Steve
WHEELS. Will Driverless Cars Also Be Riderless?. By Jim Motavalli.
Fleets of vehicles roaming streets waiting to be hailed are more efficient.
But the coronavirus has made people think twice about the future of car
ownership even when autonomous tech arrives.
It was a difficult question even before the coronavirus pandemic hit: When
self-driving cars eventually rule the roads, will Americans own their cars or
make use of ride-hailing fleets?.
The challenge is now threefold. Self-driving car technology had already
reached a plateau, and getting to full Level 5 autonomy will be more
difficult than many had thought. With the nation's economy hobbled by the
virus, investment is slowing. And to car owners, their private automobile is
now a sanctuary, and it's unclear how long that attitude will persist.
A CarGurus.com poll of 400 active car shoppers, conducted in May for this
article, asked, 'What is your overall opinion about the development of
self-driving cars?"
It showed 22 percent of customers were excited by the prospect. A survey of
auto owners in 2019 showed 31 percent of them were excited for autonomous
cars.
The question about the long-term future for the world's cars is far from
settled, and the experts (some of whom see disaster for the planet if people
own autonomous cars as we own our cars now) differ sharply in their
perception of where we're heading.
Last year, Tesla's chief, Elon Musk, predicted that his company would have a
million 'robotaxis' on the road in 2020. To put it mildly, that's not
happening.
Mr. Musk said in April that the cars would simply have the "functionality"
this year. "Regulatory approval is the big unknown," he said in a tweet.
The outlook is now cloudy.
"The top priority of automakers around the globe is to conserve cash and
generate revenue as they ramp up plants," said Michelle Krebs, executive
analyst for Cox Automotive. "That has pushed future technologies, like
autonomous vehicles and even some electric vehicles, not off the stove but to
the back burner temporarily."
Jessica Caldwell, executive director of Insights at Edmunds.com, adds that
achieving the twin goals of autonomy and electrification 'was challenging
even back when the market was healthy and functional. Americans had been
opening up to the idea of the robotaxi, but the pandemic is making passengers
think about the last person to ride in any ride-share vehicle, driver or no.
A survey by the IBM Institute for Business Value, released this month, found
that half of those surveyed intended to make reduced or zero use of shared
ride-hailing once restrictions are lifted.
There was equal skepticism about public transit.
"A large percentage of the population will look to alternatives, like the
personal vehicle," said Ben Stanley, global automotive business lead at the
IBM unit. "You control who's in that."
Robin Chase, a co-founder of Zipcar, which offers hourly rentals, argues that
private ownership of self-driving vehicles is a recipe for more congestion
and pollution, unemployment for millions of drivers, and huge losses of
transportation revenue from taxes, parking, traffic tickets and
registrations. She added that attitudes toward the automobile were changing.
"Most people think of cars in a very utilitarian way," she said. "For some of
us, cars are a status symbol, but for most, especially millennials, they're a
means to an end. People don't want to spend all their money on cars."
Ms. Chase is one of many who look forward to an era of shared autonomy that
will take a big chunk of today's autos off the road, freeing up space for
people. In this scenario, the cars left on the road would be in use most of
the time, efficiently serving a multitude of consumers and eliminating the
need for a great deal of parking.
Today's cars are, on average, parked 95 percent of the time. Susan Shaheen,
professor of civil and environmental engineering and co-director of the
Transportation Sustainability Research Center at the University of
California, Berkeley, agreed via email that shared automated vehicles 'have
the potential to support pooled rides and reduced vehicle ownership,' but she
cautions that more research is needed to understand their full impact on
consumer behavior -- including vehicle miles traveled.
The effect of the virus "on consumer perceptions regarding hygiene, and the
health and safety of shared and pooled vehicles, will need to be carefully
considered," she added.
Still, a major turnabout in vehicle ownership could be in the offing.
"Autonomous cars will definitely be shared," said Sam Abuelsamid, the
Detroit-based principal analyst at Guidehouse Insights, who cites practical
reasons. He added that consumers were already paying $38,000 on average for
new cars and trucks, and that especially in the early years, self-driving
technology would add $5,000 to $20,000 to the vehicles' price.
"Self-driving cars will remain very unaffordable for a long time," he said.
John DeCicco, associate director and research professor at the University of
Michigan Energy Institute, takes the opposite view. He doesn't think there is
a business case for huge fleets of shared autonomous cars.
"The reason the privately owned automobile has been so successful is that
individual owners capitalize the largest cost of the system -- we buy the
cars, and put a lot of emotional content into them," he said. That
willingness to buy into the system does not extend to the expensive and
shared self-driving car, Mr. DeCicco said. "When it's not their own car,
people want the cheapest ride possible," he said. "They don't want to pay for
the acquisition of the vehicles or their upkeep."
The costs of the fleets fielded by Uber, Lyft and other such services are
borne by their gig economy drivers, but the switch to autonomy could require
ride-hailing services to become large-scale fleet owners or lease holders.
"The fundamental financial equation for mass-scale, non-individually owned
vehicles is difficult, and always has been," Mr. DeCicco said.
In a 2019 Energy Institute report, Mr. DeCicco laid out a nightmare scenario
for environmentalists. "Although the timing of full automation and the forms
it will eventually take are highly uncertain, its long-run effect is likely
to be greater transportation activity over all because it will cut the cost
of mobility and increase the convenience, flexibility and variety of ways to
move both people and goods," the report said.
Some analysts see a mix of cars on the road, including in Europe. 'Some
clearly will be privately owned, but having empty cars running errands or
circling for their owners is something that city streets were simply not
designed for,' Philippe Crist, adviser for innovation and foresight at the
International Transport Forum of the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development, said via email. That means that European cities will favor
shared use of autonomous cars, he added. The question of ownership is
unsettled, in part, because the technology is still evolving. 'The real
challenge has been to make automated vehicles that consistently equal or
surpass the driving performance of an average safe driver in all conditions
and in all situations,' Mr. Crist said. 'It turns out humans are pretty good
at that. Self-driving cars might move faster to full autonomy if they could
talk to each other and to technology-enhanced buildings, traffic lights and
other elements of the infrastructure. Mr. DeCicco laments that the federal
government has been slow to adopt so-called vehicle-to-everything
regulations, also known as V2X. 'An unwillingness to invest in V2X will slow
down progress,' he said. Advances were finally being made even without
federal standards, Mr. Abuelsamid said, although there are two competing
technologies. Some V2X was first installed on Cadillacs in 2017, and elements
of the technology will be made available on Ford and General Motors vehicles
in 2022 and 2023, he said. 'V2X is definitely a benefit,' Mr. Abuelsamid
said. 'With just onboard technology, cars can't see what's around that blind
curve or what's in front of that truck. If V2X is widely deployed, it will
result in extended situational awareness. And faster deployment of autonomous
cars. In 2017, Ms. Chase instigated the Shared Mobility Principles for
Livable Cities, created with the World Resources Institute, the Rocky
Mountain Institute, the Natural Resources Defense Council, Transportation for
America, C40 Cities and the World Business Council for Sustainable
Development, among others. There are more than 180 public and private
endorsers. One principle is that autonomous vehicles 'are part of shared
fleets, well-regulated, and zero emission. It does seem likely that
self-driving cars will be electric, because the industry is moving in that
direction in tandem with its push for autonomy. But whether they'll also be
shared is far from certain.. PHOTOS: Self-driving Uber vehicles in a lot in
Pittsburgh. One vision of the future sees fleets of cars hailed as people
need a lift. But in a recent survey, 22 percent of car shoppers were excited
about autonomous cars, down from 31 percent in 2019. (PHOTOGRAPH BY GENE J.
PUSKAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS); Self-driving cars by Optimus Ride at the Brooklyn
Navy Yard last year, above, and a Zipcar in Manhattan. Economic turmoil has
forced carmakers to put autonomous technology on the back burner for now.
