[msb-alumni] WHEELS. Will Driverless Cars Also Be Riderless?.

From: Steve <pipeguy920@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <msb-alumni@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 29 May 2020 15:11:12 -0400

BlankI think this virus has changed the equation; people are more unlikely to
ride
mass-transit and risk exposure to others' germs while this virus is still
rampant.
Steve

WHEELS. Will Driverless Cars Also Be Riderless?. By Jim Motavalli.

Fleets of vehicles roaming streets waiting to be hailed are more efficient. But
the
coronavirus has made people think twice about the future of car ownership even
when
autonomous tech arrives.

It was a difficult question even before the coronavirus pandemic hit: When
self-driving cars eventually rule the roads, will Americans own their cars or
make
use of ride-hailing fleets?.

The challenge is now threefold. Self-driving car technology had already reached
a
plateau, and getting to full Level 5 autonomy will be more difficult than many
had
thought. With the nation's economy hobbled by the virus, investment is slowing.
And
to car owners, their private automobile is now a sanctuary, and it's unclear
how long
that attitude will persist.

A CarGurus.com poll of 400 active car shoppers, conducted in May for this
article,
asked, 'What is your overall opinion about the development of self-driving
cars?"

It showed 22 percent of customers were excited by the prospect. A survey of
auto
owners in 2019 showed 31 percent of them were excited for autonomous cars.

The question about the long-term future for the world's cars is far from
settled, and
the experts (some of whom see disaster for the planet if people own autonomous
cars
as we own our cars now) differ sharply in their perception of where we're
heading.

Last year, Tesla's chief, Elon Musk, predicted that his company would have a
million
'robotaxis' on the road in 2020. To put it mildly, that's not happening.

Mr. Musk said in April that the cars would simply have the "functionality" this
year.
"Regulatory approval is the big unknown," he said in a tweet.

The outlook is now cloudy.

"The top priority of automakers around the globe is to conserve cash and
generate
revenue as they ramp up plants," said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst for Cox
Automotive. "That has pushed future technologies, like autonomous vehicles and
even
some electric vehicles, not off the stove but to the back burner temporarily."

Jessica Caldwell, executive director of Insights at Edmunds.com, adds that
achieving
the twin goals of autonomy and electrification 'was challenging even back when
the
market was healthy and functional. Americans had been opening up to the idea of
the
robotaxi, but the pandemic is making passengers think about the last person to
ride
in any ride-share vehicle, driver or no. A survey by the IBM Institute for
Business
Value, released this month, found that half of those surveyed intended to make
reduced or zero use of shared ride-hailing once restrictions are lifted.

There was equal skepticism about public transit.
"A large percentage of the population will look to alternatives, like the
personal
vehicle," said Ben Stanley, global automotive business lead at the IBM unit.
"You
control who's in that."

Robin Chase, a co-founder of Zipcar, which offers hourly rentals, argues that
private
ownership of self-driving vehicles is a recipe for more congestion and
pollution,
unemployment for millions of drivers, and huge losses of transportation revenue
from
taxes, parking, traffic tickets and registrations. She added that attitudes
toward
the automobile were changing.

"Most people think of cars in a very utilitarian way," she said. "For some of
us,
cars are a status symbol, but for most, especially millennials, they're a means
to an
end. People don't want to spend all their money on cars."

Ms. Chase is one of many who look forward to an era of shared autonomy that
will take
a big chunk of today's autos off the road, freeing up space for people. In this
scenario, the cars left on the road would be in use most of the time,
efficiently
serving a multitude of consumers and eliminating the need for a great deal of
parking.

Today's cars are, on average, parked 95 percent of the time. Susan Shaheen,
professor
of civil and environmental engineering and co-director of the Transportation
Sustainability Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley,
agreed via
email that shared automated vehicles 'have the potential to support pooled
rides and
reduced vehicle ownership,' but she cautions that more research is needed to
understand their full impact on consumer behavior -- including vehicle miles
traveled.

The effect of the virus "on consumer perceptions regarding hygiene, and the
health
and safety of shared and pooled vehicles, will need to be carefully
considered," she
added.

Still, a major turnabout in vehicle ownership could be in the offing.

"Autonomous cars will definitely be shared," said Sam Abuelsamid, the
Detroit-based
principal analyst at Guidehouse Insights, who cites practical reasons. He added
that
consumers were already paying $38,000 on average for new cars and trucks, and
that
especially in the early years, self-driving technology would add $5,000 to
$20,000 to
the vehicles' price.

"Self-driving cars will remain very unaffordable for a long time," he said.

John DeCicco, associate director and research professor at the University of
Michigan
Energy Institute, takes the opposite view. He doesn't think there is a business
case
for huge fleets of shared autonomous cars.

"The reason the privately owned automobile has been so successful is that
individual
owners capitalize the largest cost of the system -- we buy the cars, and put a
lot of
emotional content into them," he said. That willingness to buy into the system
does
not extend to the expensive and shared self-driving car, Mr. DeCicco said.
"When it's
not their own car, people want the cheapest ride possible," he said. "They
don't want
to pay for the acquisition of the vehicles or their upkeep."

The costs of the fleets fielded by Uber, Lyft and other such services are borne
by
their gig economy drivers, but the switch to autonomy could require
ride-hailing
services to become large-scale fleet owners or lease holders.

"The fundamental financial equation for mass-scale, non-individually owned
vehicles
is difficult, and always has been," Mr. DeCicco said.

In a 2019 Energy Institute report, Mr. DeCicco laid out a nightmare scenario
for
environmentalists. "Although the timing of full automation and the forms it
will
eventually take are highly uncertain, its long-run effect is likely to be
greater
transportation activity over all because it will cut the cost of mobility and
increase the convenience, flexibility and variety of ways to move both people
and
goods," the report said.

Some analysts see a mix of cars on the road, including in Europe. 'Some clearly
will
be privately owned, but having empty cars running errands or circling for their
owners is something that city streets were simply not designed for,' Philippe
Crist,
adviser for innovation and foresight at the International Transport Forum of
the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said via email. That
means
that European cities will favor shared use of autonomous cars, he added. The
question
of ownership is unsettled, in part, because the technology is still evolving.
'The
real challenge has been to make automated vehicles that consistently equal or
surpass
the driving performance of an average safe driver in all conditions and in all
situations,' Mr. Crist said. 'It turns out humans are pretty good at that.
Self-driving cars might move faster to full autonomy if they could talk to each
other
and to technology-enhanced buildings, traffic lights and other elements of the
infrastructure. Mr. DeCicco laments that the federal government has been slow
to
adopt so-called vehicle-to-everything regulations, also known as V2X. 'An
unwillingness to invest in V2X will slow down progress,' he said. Advances were
finally being made even without federal standards, Mr. Abuelsamid said,
although
there are two competing technologies. Some V2X was first installed on Cadillacs
in
2017, and elements of the technology will be made available on Ford and General
Motors vehicles in 2022 and 2023, he said. 'V2X is definitely a benefit,' Mr.
Abuelsamid said. 'With just onboard technology, cars can't see what's around
that
blind curve or what's in front of that truck. If V2X is widely deployed, it
will
result in extended situational awareness. And faster deployment of autonomous
cars.
In 2017, Ms. Chase instigated the Shared Mobility Principles for Livable
Cities,
created with the World Resources Institute, the Rocky Mountain Institute, the
Natural
Resources Defense Council, Transportation for America, C40 Cities and the World
Business Council for Sustainable Development, among others. There are more than
180
public and private endorsers. One principle is that autonomous vehicles 'are
part of
shared fleets, well-regulated, and zero emission. It does seem likely that
self-driving cars will be electric, because the industry is moving in that
direction
in tandem with its push for autonomy. But whether they'll also be shared is far
from
certain.. PHOTOS: Self-driving Uber vehicles in a lot in Pittsburgh. One vision
of
the future sees fleets of cars hailed as people need a lift. But in a recent
survey,
22 percent of car shoppers were excited about autonomous cars, down from 31
percent
in 2019. (PHOTOGRAPH BY GENE J. PUSKAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS); Self-driving cars by
Optimus Ride at the Brooklyn Navy Yard last year, above, and a Zipcar in
Manhattan.
Economic turmoil has forced carmakers to put autonomous technology on the back
burner
for now.

[msb-alumni] WHEELS. Will Driverless Cars Also Be Riderless?.

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