[lit-ideas] Re: flu vaccine, some background
- From: David Ritchie <ritchierd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 10:55:53 -0700
On of the reasons we are hearing about 'flu' vaccines is the debate over the
swine 'flu' vaccination program in the nineteen seventies, and President
Ford's role in promoting an over-optimistic reading of the situation.
I recommend chapter five, "The Swine 'Flu' Immunization Program" in Diana B.
Dutton, "Worse Than The Disease; Pitfalls of Medical Progress (Cambridge
U.P., 1988) The conclusion runs, "In short, the swine flu story was *not*
inevitable. There were alternative actions and decisions that might have
produced a happier ending. Many were the steps that critics tried in vain
to bring about. Their failure highlights the dangers of relying too heavily
on the views of technical experts, whose unswerving confidence in the safety
and efficacy of meidcal intervention (even in the name of prevention) seemed
to bling them to impending problems, and of insulating national health
policy from public scrutiny. The lessons seem clear in hindsight. Harder
will be knowing how and when to apply them next time."
To reinforce the point that 'flu' has long been deadly, here are the
mortality figures from 'flu' for England and Wales from 1890-1907 (source:
Britannica)
1890 4,523
1891 16,686
1892 15,737
1893 9,669
1894 6,625
1895 12,880
1896 3,753
1897 6,088
1898 10,405
1899 12,417
1900 16,245
1901 5,666
1902 7,366
1903 6,322
1904 5,694
1905 6,953
1906 6,310
1907 9,245
The death rates per million varied between 122 and 574.
Early epidemics are hard to track but Brittanica suggests there were ones in
1403, 1427, 1510 1557, 1580, 1676, 1703, 1732, 1737, 1762, 1782, 1787, 1803,
1833, 1837, 1847. Britannica notes a falling away of incidence from then
until 1889, when there were only 55 deaths from 'flu' in England and Wales.
Then it came back.
David Ritchie
Portland, Oregon
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