[list_indonesia] [ppiindia] Hugo Chávez and Petro Populism (3/3)
- From: "Ambon" <sea@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <"Undisclosed-Recipient:;"@freelists.org>
- Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 12:01:58 +0200
** Mailing-List Indonesia Nasional Milis PPI-India www.ppi-india.da.ru **
Hugo Ch=E1vez and Petro Populism
T he organized opposition to Ch=E1vez is rather thin on the ground these da=
ys, having been largely discredited by the right-wing extremism of their co=
up and the economic devastation caused by their oil strike. So I visit the =
offices of the right-wing tabloid As=ED Es la Noticia, owned by one of Vene=
zuela's top-circulation dailies, El Nacional.=20
"Look, Ch=E1vez won the referendum. People have to accept that," says the e=
ditor, Albor Rodriguez. She is in her early 30s, an escu=E1lido all the way=
, but she respects the facts.=20
Standing erect at her desk, one black-clad shoulder tipped forward, she tak=
es long drags on her cigarette between comments. "There is no 'Castro commu=
nist' here. That's ridiculous. They say there are Cubans in the government =
and the security. But there is no proof. However, does Ch=E1vez have autocr=
atic tendencies? Yes! He comes from the military. Does his government, or h=
e himself, know what they are doing? No! His head is a mix--a marmalade of =
notions and slogans. He speaks without thinking. He makes innuendoes about =
Condoleezza Rice being in love with him. That's insane. He's totally errati=
c."=20
Albor, to my surprise, is almost as harsh on the opposition: "They lost bec=
ause Ch=E1vez has a deep emotional connection with the people, and they hav=
e no connection with the people. Also, he has spent a lot of money on the b=
arrios. He pours money into the barrios."=20
She explains that when her paper reported on the real work of the missions,=
some readers accused her of lying and "having gone to the moon to find the=
se things." She explains: "The opposition lied to itself. They were deluded=
and now they are smashed." With that rather definitive summation, she puts=
out her cigarette and invites me to lunch.=20
There are some in the opposition whose critique focuses less on Ch=E1vez's =
supposed abuses of power and more on the government's alleged mismanagement=
and left-wing economic tomfoolery. Oscar Garcia Mendoza is president of Ba=
nco Venezolano de Credito, a very old and conservative bank. He's what Ch=
=E1vez would call an "oligarch," the official enemy: a capitalist financier=
. But when I meet him in his beautiful corner office on the ninth floor of =
a Modernist highrise, he is beaming. He wears a dark blue suit, his gray ha=
ir is cropped stylishly short and he has that healthy look that seems to co=
me from being rich and relaxed.=20
Classical music filters out from speakers in the ceiling; on the table are =
fine Cuban cigars. We sit in bent plywood and leather Herman Miller chairs,=
and gaze out across the city through a glass wall lined with thick green p=
lants.=20
"Business has never been better," says Garcia. "This government is totally =
incompetent. They have no idea what they are doing. The head of their land =
reform, Eliezer Otaiza, is a former male stripper. And did you see they jus=
t appointed Carlos Lanz, a former terrorist kidnapper, a communist, as head=
of Alcasa, our largest aluminum company?" Through it all, Garcia wears a s=
lightly suppressed grin as if he thinks the whole thing is hilarious. "I me=
an, can you imagine that?"=20
In a way, Lanz's appointment is not so outrageous: Another former guerrilla=
, Ali Rodriguez Araque, once minister of mining and energy, then head of OP=
EC, is now foreign minister and widely respected as a level-headed negotiat=
or.=20
Garcia also has some very concrete criticisms. He says that the current eco=
nomic boom is a chimera based on oil prices. In 2004 government spending ju=
mped 47 percent, much of which went to pay for healthcare and education--th=
e missions. But despite the oil windfall, the government has had to borrow =
heavily. Instead of turning to international financiers, it has increased i=
ts internal debt to Venezuelan banks.=20
Garcia says that in the past four years this internal debt has gone from $2=
billion to more than $27 billion. The Finance Ministry confirms these figu=
res and says that 60 percent of this debt is held in government bonds.=20
"But what makes this really crazy," says Garcia, "is that the government is=
depositing all its oil revenue in the same banks at about 5 percent, then =
borrowing it back at 14 percent. It's a very easy way for bankers to make m=
oney. That's why I say this is a government for the rich."=20
Last year Venezuelan banks made $1.38 billion in profits, just a bit more t=
han they did the year before. And most of that money came from lending to t=
he Ch=E1vez government and trading in special government-approved, dollar-d=
enominated bonds, a legal loophole in the new currency-control law. Garcia'=
s bank actually does no business with the government, but the huge increase=
in oil revenues has doubled his loan portfolio. The economy is awash in mo=
ney: Growth was 17.3 percent in 2004.=20
So if the economy is booming, why does Garcia dislike Ch=E1vez?=20
"These people are crooks," he says. "Look, Venezuela has always been corrup=
t, but these guys are the worst." When I point out that the government just=
fired 120 managers in Zulia state for corruption, Garcia waves it away as =
insufficient.=20
"What are they doing with all the money? They are not investing. They spend=
it all on food and medicine. As soon as oil goes down, their party is over=
." So what should the government do to avoid this? "They should privatize e=
verything."=20
Getting a Ch=E1vez government response to charges of mismanagement, corrupt=
ion and overdependence on freakishly high oil prices is difficult. My inqui=
ries are fed into the labyrinthine bureaucracy of the Information Ministry,=
where every few days a new official loses my paperwork and needs a full CV=
and another letter from my editors and another complete written explanatio=
n of my project.=20
After three weeks no one in the Ch=E1vez government has come forth with an =
on-the-record statement except for one laid-back spokesperson at the Higher=
Education Ministry.=20
Finally an old friend gets me an interview with his boss, Jorge Giordani, a=
former academic who befriended Ch=E1vez during the rebellious paratrooper'=
s stint in jail and is now the planning and development minister. On matter=
s of economic development, Giordani is the revolution's brain. We meet in h=
is office near the top of South America's tallest building, one of a pair o=
f towers, the other of which stands half-burned, its gold-tinted, mirrored =
windows blown out and black, the result of a recent accident caused by bad =
maintenance.=20
Giordani is tall, gray and hunched. He wears big glasses, a tie, a brown ca=
rdigan sweater and has a short white Abe Lincoln beard. He evades most spec=
ific questions. As for corruption, he says simply: "We are not doing enough=
. It is a very serious problem."=20
Mostly he offers a long but interesting explanation of Venezuela's historic=
al development and its lack of internal economic integration. We move from =
map to map as he explicates the economic geography of various regions.=20
Many Chavistas hope that investing in physical infrastructure, health and e=
ducation will open new, nonpetroleum industries in high technology, busines=
s services, healthcare and agriculture. When I ask Giordani how the country=
plans to wean itself from oil, about land reform and about the many so-cal=
led "endogenous" development projects being promoted, he sighs and shakes h=
is head as if I am na=EFve.=20
"We've been fighting political battles for most of our time in office. Many=
people have learned to read in the last few years, but how long will it ta=
ke for them to work in high technology, or medicine, or services? Ten years=
? A generation? We are fighting a very individualistic, rentier culture. Ev=
erything has been 'Mama state, Papa state, give me oil money.' To organize =
people is extremely hard."=20
After a long, roundabout discussion in which I press him on the question of=
import substitution and new industrialization, he settles on one key point=
: Venezuela's only real hope lies in regional economic integration. Only th=
en will internal markets be big enough to nurture alternative technologies =
and new industries that might otherwise threaten current multinational mono=
polies.=20
Giordani seems weary and cynical. "No, I am just practical," he says with a=
chuckle. "Development in Venezuela will take at least fifty years."=20
And how long will the oil last?=20
"Maybe twenty years, maybe thirty."=20
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