[climatematters] The Truth as we know it

  • From: Leslie Coelho <lesliecoelho@xxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "climatematters@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <climatematters@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2007 13:44:35 +0000

Hi, since my previous newsletter in which I admitted that I was some what 
confused about the causes of Climate Change I have been doing some more 
research. Here's what I've found out. The director of last weeks Channel 4 
Documentary has a some what dubious history see 
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2000/03/16/modified-truth/ for more information.
If you want to know more about the causes of climate change then I'd recommend 
reading this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attribution_of_recent_climate_change 
entry on wikipedia, but to summaries
The exact proportion of this warming that is due to human influence is still 
open to question, but the current scientific "consensus", as expressed in 2007 
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that Most of the 
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century 
is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas 
concentrations where "very likely" means greater than 90% probability. 
Another candidate mechanism for climate change is solar forcing. Most global 
climate model (GCM) studies indicate that the direct effects of solar variation 
would be too small to significantly affect climate. Much of the solar research 
centers around possible mechanisms to amplify the effect, possibly through 
increasing solar activity reducing cosmic ray flux and, speculatively, 
modifying cloud cover [8]; however there is no agreement on whether this is 
correct within the scientific community. Since GCM can reproduce observed 
temperature trends (including early 20th century changes, where solar forcing 
is non-negligible) there is no obvious need for a high sensitivity to solar 
forcing. Indeed, a significantly higher sensitivity to solar forcing would make 
early 20th century temperature change inexplicableThe plateau in warming from 
the 1940s to 1960s can be attributed largely to sulphate aerosol cooling 

It may be asserted that in the ice core record, temperature starts rising about 
800 years before CO2 increases; therefore CO2 cannot have caused temperature 
changes in the past; therefore it cannot be causing temperature changes today. 
Temperature does indeed lead CO2 during deglaciations (but not at all times); 
but this does not prove that CO2 has no effect on climate. From studying all 
the available data (not just ice cores), the probable sequence of events at a 
termination goes something like this. Some (currently unknown) process causes 
Antarctica and the surrounding ocean to warm. This process also causes CO2 to 
start rising, about 800 years later. Then CO2 further warms the whole planet, 
because of its heat-trapping properties. This leads to even further CO2 
release. So CO2 during ice ages should be thought of as a "feedback" [23].
For the full details see 
And a review of last weeks programme in the Independant 
reveals the following
Some scientists still disagree - that is the nature of science - but their 
numbers are diminishing, and few are leaders in their fields. A recent survey 
of 928 published scientific papers found not one that dissented over the 
reality of global warming. Even President Bush admitted - through gritted teeth 
- in January's State of the Union speech that the climate change presented "a 
major challenge".

Standing with Dominic Lawson on the sceptic's barricades are his father (or to 
give him proper deference, Lord Lawson of Blaby) and his brother-in-law 
Christopher Monckton, Lord Monckton of Brenchley. Surprisingly, there is much 
common ground between sceptics and the environmentalists. Lord Lawson, for 
example, says that there is "little doubt that the 20th century ended warmer 
than it began".
In conclusion the evidence strongly suggest that our western life style are 
affecting the environment in an adverse and potentially dangerous way, it looks 
like we really are going to have to cut our carbon emission and our dependancy 
on Fossil Fuels.
LeslieReduce    the amount of the Earth's resources that we use.Reuse      
don't just bin it, could someone else make use of it?Recycle   Can the 
materials be made into something new?

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