I’m a day trader and I usually look to trade both sides of the coin at most
times, but I am switching to selling mode only for the foreseeable future.
Please note that I’m not calling for a huge correction though I do think it’s
definitely possible. I’m just erring on the side of short for a while as I
think it’s unlikely that we see any bounces in the short term.
On Feb 24, 2020, at 3:40 PM, cchengbusiness <cchengbusiness@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Looking at the CNBC and Bloomberg reporting today, I'm not sure they are
fully discounting the risks yet. Based on what we've seen with China, Korea,
and the cruise ships, when you get hundreds of confirmed cases like in Italy,
you may also have thousands of carriers who have traveled and infected others.
Yes the central banks are going to throw everything at this. But be prepared
for continued reporting of escalating numbers from the already hit regions
(Korea, Japan, Italy, Australia, etc.). Cases will pop up in other European
countries like Germany etc., as people have already traveled from Italy.
What will happen to markets as a string of European countries begin
announcing cases; more countries begin lockdown like in Italy; air and rail
travel gets limited or disrupted; dampened economic activity as people stay
home; supply chain disruption, etc.? How will that affect company financials?
How will that affect investor sentiment? I hear talking heads saying 2-4
months of the virus like it's no big deal, as if bounce back is inevitable.
But if this stays for 2-4 months, so much of the real and financial economy
will be affected and create secondary effects.
Yeah stocking up on some groceries is not a bad idea. If virus spreads here
in a major way, CDC and gov needs to offer free treatment to clean this up.
Otherwise, with our healthcare system and costs, so many will go untreated,
infect others, and create a huge problem.
-Charles
On Mon, Feb 24, 2020 at 9:56 AM Bobby Tumser <bobtsgt@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:bobtsgt@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Well said Charles. The markets are seeing how serious this is and taking
action to cover their asses. Mixing in the outreach of the virus with the
global markets in general has finally gained the attention of the fund
managers. I have been waiting for this buying opportunity myself. I got my
grocery list ready!
On Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 5:24 AM Alan Shrock <alan.shrock@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:alan.shrock@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
IAU iShares Gold Trust has already jumped from 15.71 at the close of regular
trading hours on Friday to 16.07 when I just checked it a few minutes ago.
On Mon, Feb 24, 2020 at 12:01 AM cchengbusiness <cchengbusiness@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:cchengbusiness@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Hi all,
Just want to alert everyone to be prepared for a potentially large selloff
and volatility tomorrow and in the days ahead. If you have been following
the news regarding the Corona virus and market's base case assessment of a
V-shaped recovery, you should understand that a lot changed this weekend.
Just offering a couple of my thoughts on the issue:
1) Global Pandemic - The rapid spread in Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, and
other countries means that the probability of this becoming a global pandemic
has become elevated, if not likely. Many densely populated and vulnerable
countries (Indonesia, SE Asia, India, etc.) may be obscuring infected cases
due to lack of testing. Japan may very well end up postponing the Olympics.
Europe will also be confronting a challenging situation given the amount of
tourists in Italy and open borders. The greatest challenge this virus
presents is that it spreads quickly and is very hard to detect. Thus
disruption to transport and normal activity becomes likely even as
governments take the proper and necessary containment measures.
2) Demand Side Disruption - depressed economic activity as people stay home
from due to virus. This is especially problematic if this becomes global.
3) Supply Chain Disruption - supply chain issues will no longer be limited
to China production, but also Korea and Japan (e.g. Samsung factory lockdown
after 1 confirmed infection). Also the interconnectivity of Asia means risks
of infection and supply chain disruption is compounded. This is without
taking into account Europe or countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, India,
Pakistan, which have far less capacity to fight the virus compared to East
Asian and developed countries.
4) Narrative/Sentiment Adjustment - V-shaped recovery out of the window, we
are dealing with a protracted crisis. Belief in central bank printing and
debt fueled asset inflation will be tested.
5) China - Stabilized enough to resume economic activity. There will be more
infections across the country as activities resumes, and they will throw
drugs (GILD, ABBV, and other treatments) at the problem. But the healthcare
system is unlikely to be overwhelmed like in Wuhan. Essentially if they don't
resume, millions of small businesses will go out of business. Their hope is
that with better treatment, fatality rate will be contained to around 2009
H1N1 levels.
6) What to buy? - GILD, ABBV, [inverse ETFs, VIX etfs, these are risky and
may be priced high already; don't buy unless you fully understand them] Gold,
defensive
My heart hopes the best for the people and economy, but my head says
protracted crisis and a wild week in stocks ahead. Hope everyone the best
and stay healthy.
-Charles
On Wed, Feb 12, 2020 at 11:07 PM cchengbusiness <cchengbusiness@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:cchengbusiness@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Yeah the markets have definitely been underestimating the severity of the
outbreak and its impact on the Chinese and global economy, not to mention
lives. I bought some TVIX below 39 today for that exact reason. Doesn't
necessarily mean it's a disastrous scenario, but a lot of institutional
investors are too optimistic and uninformed about epidemiology/China (VIX
below 14). To much to go into, but just throwing a couple of things out there:
1) There has been a massive under-reporting of cases in Wuhan/Hubei. Nobody
knows the exact number as many are carriers without symptoms, but the math
models of 200k-500k is much more reasonable than the official figure.
Today's spike is just the official figure needing to catch up to the actual
figures.
2) Markets seem assured that this would be a V-shape recovery in China,
partly due to Chinese stimulus. This is hardly guaranteed, they are not fully
discounting the risks.
Now some good news:
3) There has not been rumors of major outbreaks from post-holiday migration
back into the cities. This is the most important element to pay attention
to. Without outbreak outside of Hubei, the situation is contained. But if
this happens, this will get ugly, and stocks will definitely dive.
4) Though highly infectious, the actual fatality rate is much lower than 2%,
maybe around the 2009 H1N1 range. The reported fatality rate is higher
because while there's been a large under-reporting of fatalities, there's
been a far greater under-reporting of infections.
To be clear, this is not advice to sell positions. The probability of
minimized long-term impact is still good. But there are still major risks
that have not been cleared and potential volatility ahead. We probably won't
get a good sense until end of Feb at earliest.
As to why stocks are so high? Simple, all the world's central banks have been
printing money and leveraging like crazy since 2008. Without that, the
economies would crash harder than '08. But it's also hard to bet against
them because their monetary policies essentially inflates away the value of
cash and bonds.
-Charles
On Wed, Feb 12, 2020 at 3:26 PM Chuck Kremer <chuckkremer@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:chuckkremer@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Feels like 2000 to me.
-Chuck
On Feb 12, 2020, at 3:23 PM, Bob T <bobtsgt@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:bobtsgt@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
I agree that we are seeing some weird times right now. Global virus is
attacking and killing more then SARS did but yet markets continue to go back
up. A company can beat earnings and bring in higher then expected revenues
but yet the stock price takes a hit because they are calling for a slight
slow down in the future year. I for one have been slowly taking some
profits on certain positions, waiting for the chance to buy them cheaper.
Bobby
From: cchengbusiness <mailto:cchengbusiness@xxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2020 9:35 AM
To: cincysmi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:cincysmi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [cincysmi] Re: And Now For A Bearish Note
This is not necessarily a commentary on how much irrational exuberance there
is in the market, but I can think of three potential causes of the lull in
shipping:
1) Currently, the corona virus crisis has had significant impact on
shipping both to and from China. This is also evident in the commodities
trade.
2) Previous the trade war situation between US, China, and to a lesser
degree Europe.
3) China was already in something of an economic slowdown even before the
trade war, which had depressed demand for durable goods (cars, etc.) and
industrial goods (Caterpillar, Siemens, German exports, etc.)
Since China accounts for such a significant portion of international trade,
I imagine it's bound to impact shipping. Now how these situations resolve
itself may offer insight into how the shipping indexes recovers.
Best,
Charles
On Wed, Feb 12, 2020 at 6:12 AM Alan Shrock <alan.shrock@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:alan.shrock@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Both the Baltic Dry Index and the Cass Freight Index have been in a downward
trend for a while.
The Baltic Dry Index is related to shipping activity, while the Cass Freight
Index is related to land-based transportation of goods.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic ;
<https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic>
https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index
<https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index>
The attached graph shows the disparity in to growth of the Wilshire 5000
index versus Gross Domestic Product.. While the fact that GDP does not
include the value of services might explain some of the disparity in growth
rates, it still points to the fact that the markets have gotten ahead of the
value of goods produced.
Factor in that the Federal Reserve has been pumping tens of billions of
dollars per day into the repo market for months and I see an unsustainable
bubble in the making.
I think that we are seeing some irrational exuberance in the markets.
--
Alan W, Shrock
9513 Colegate Way
West Chester, OH 45011-9419
(513) 497-2634 (Mobile)
Latitude 39.319576500
Longitude -84.461717800
"Are we being good ancestors?" - Jonas Salk
--
Alan W, Shrock
9513 Colegate Way
West Chester, OH 45011-9419
(513) 497-2634 (Mobile)
Latitude 39.319576500
Longitude -84.461717800
"Are we being good ancestors?" - Jonas Salk
