Feels like 2000 to me.
-Chuck
On Feb 12, 2020, at 3:23 PM, Bob T <bobtsgt@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I agree that we are seeing some weird times right now. Global virus is
attacking and killing more then SARS did but yet markets continue to go back
up. A company can beat earnings and bring in higher then expected revenues
but yet the stock price takes a hit because they are calling for a slight
slow down in the future year. I for one have been slowly taking some profits
on certain positions, waiting for the chance to buy them cheaper.
Bobby
From: cchengbusiness <mailto:cchengbusiness@xxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2020 9:35 AM
To: cincysmi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:cincysmi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [cincysmi] Re: And Now For A Bearish Note
This is not necessarily a commentary on how much irrational exuberance there
is in the market, but I can think of three potential causes of the lull in
shipping:
1) Currently, the corona virus crisis has had significant impact on shipping
both to and from China. This is also evident in the commodities trade.
2) Previous the trade war situation between US, China, and to a lesser
degree Europe.
3) China was already in something of an economic slowdown even before the
trade war, which had depressed demand for durable goods (cars, etc.) and
industrial goods (Caterpillar, Siemens, German exports, etc.)
Since China accounts for such a significant portion of international trade, I
imagine it's bound to impact shipping. Now how these situations resolve
itself may offer insight into how the shipping indexes recovers.
Best,
Charles
On Wed, Feb 12, 2020 at 6:12 AM Alan Shrock <alan.shrock@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:alan.shrock@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Both the Baltic Dry Index and the Cass Freight Index have been in a downward
trend for a while.
The Baltic Dry Index is related to shipping activity, while the Cass Freight
Index is related to land-based transportation of goods.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic ;
<https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic>
https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index
<https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index>
The attached graph shows the disparity in to growth of the Wilshire 5000
index versus Gross Domestic Product.. While the fact that GDP does not
include the value of services might explain some of the disparity in growth
rates, it still points to the fact that the markets have gotten ahead of the
value of goods produced.
Factor in that the Federal Reserve has been pumping tens of billions of
dollars per day into the repo market for months and I see an unsustainable
bubble in the making.
I think that we are seeing some irrational exuberance in the markets.
--
Alan W, Shrock
9513 Colegate Way
West Chester, OH 45011-9419
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"Are we being good ancestors?" - Jonas Salk
