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Vol. 80/No. 46 December 12, 2016
(front page)
Washington’s China ‘pivot’ falters as Asia trade pact dies
BY MARK THOMPSON
President-elect Donald Trump announced Nov. 21 that on his first day in
office he will issue notice of Washington’s withdrawal from the
Trans-Pacific Partnership. The trade and regulatory agreement,
negotiated with 11 other Pacific governments over the past decade, was
touted by outgoing President Barack Obama as a signal achievement of his
presidency and a core part of the “pivot” to Asia, which was a hallmark
of Washington’s foreign policy for the past five years.
The “pivot,” later renamed a “rebalance,” was a political and military
course intended to counter the ascending economic and military weight of
China. But Beijing has continued to expand trade and political ties
across Asia and the Pacific, further eroding the domination of the
region that was one of U.S. imperialism’s main prizes from the slaughter
of World War II.
Trump made opposition to the TPP, accompanied by nationalist demagogy, a
central plank in his campaign as the Republican presidential candidate.
It was also the policy of his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton.
Ratification of the pact in Congress already faced opposition among both
parties, and within days of the election the White House announced it
would not proceed.
The TPP, which excluded China, was an attempt by Washington to assemble
a political bloc as a counter to Beijing in the region. Defense
Secretary Ashton Carter described it as being as “important to me as
another aircraft carrier.” Its collapse is a blow to U.S. strength in
the region.
The collapse has accelerated moves by many of Washington’s Pacific
allies to finalize an alternative regional trade agreement with Beijing.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership includes the 10 members
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations along with Australia,
India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and China.
Beijing has also been pushing for adoption of a trade agreement among
the 21 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, an
association of Pacific rim countries, which met in Peru Nov. 19-20. A
number of APEC governments in Latin America are now looking to join the
RCEP.
Last year, Beijing launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Against Washington’s opposition, 57 governments signed on, including
most U.S. allies except Tokyo. Beijing is already expanding trade and
investment with countries across Asia and the Pacific.
Conflicts over the composition of regional trade blocs are primarily
about political and military alliances, not trade. There are already 147
“free trade” agreements among countries in Asia, with 68 more under
negotiation. The TPP was intended to ensure that Washington “called the
shots” in Asia, as Obama put it, and not Beijing.
As part of the “pivot” to counter China, the Obama administration had
planned to shift the weight of the U.S. armed forces to the Pacific,
opening new bases, increasing military exercises in the region and
positioning 60 percent of its naval warships there by 2020.
But this was premised on the winding down of U.S. military interventions
in Afghanistan and Iraq. Instead, these conflicts have intensified, as
has Washington’s military involvement there and in Syria, Somalia and
elsewhere. Although maintaining the overwhelming supremacy it has held
for decades, Washington’s military and naval power in the Pacific has
continued to diminish, even as Beijing expands its military buildup in
the South China Sea.
This shifting weight was reflected in the Philippines, a former colony
and ally, following the election of President Rodrigo Duterte in May. He
announced a scaling down of military ties to Washington and withdrew
from U.S. naval patrols in the South China Sea.
During his campaign for president, Trump lambasted the TPP as a
“disaster” that would mean job losses in the U.S. He attacked “jobs
theft” by Asian countries and singled out China as “the No. 1 abuser,”
saying, “They suck the blood out of us and we owe them money.” He urged
the use of U.S. “economic power” and hefty import tariffs against
competition by Chinese imports.
Trump called on the governments of Japan and South Korea to do more to
beef up their armed forces and said they should “pay up” for U.S.
military bases in those countries. He said he would increase the size of
the U.S. military.
“A strong military presence will be a clear signal to China and other
nations in Asia,” said Trump’s campaign website. But a senior defense
adviser to Trump, former CIA head James Woolsey, in a Nov. 10 opinion
piece in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post, said he anticipated a
“much warmer” response from the new administration to China’s regional
economic initiatives and said Obama’s refusal to join the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank had been a “strategic mistake.”
“We understand China’s desire to reform global institutions” to reflect
its greater economic and military weight, Woolsey said.
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