Trump in Last Days is like a Wounded animal, and 3rd Parties are Urging him
to Lash out at Iran
MIDDLE EAST MONITOR
01/07/2021
By Oraib Al-Rantawi | -
( Middle East Monitor) - Just one drop will be enough for the cup of tension
between the US and Iran in Iraq and the Gulf to overflow. Everyone's fingers
are on the trigger as each side accuses the other of preparing to launch a
pre-emptive strike; any sense of trust is completely gone. There is plenty
of opportunity for misunderstanding and the door is open for any third party
to cross the line of heightened tension and start a huge fire.
Both sides are on the edge and there are no able mediators available to
persuade them to take even one step back. Iran will respond to any attack,
both directly and through its proxies in the region. In order to be
convincing and save what face it has left after the blows it has suffered,
Iran's response must include Iranians, not just its allies.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, has drawn a new red line; he is like a wounded
animal getting more dangerous the closer he is to leave the White House,
willingly or otherwise. One American killed in Iraq or the surrounding
region by Iran or its allies will be enough to convince the outgoing US
president to pull the trigger.
At this critical moment, therefore, the importance and danger of such a
third party increases, as every action it takes could be the reason for the
US and Iran stepping over the edge. Hence, Iran's intelligence-based warning
that Israel is plotting a false flag operation against an American target in
order to drag the Trump administration by the neck into a war with Tehran.
This is the option preferred by the Netanyahu government, and it has always
looked for ways for it to happen. The Israeli leader is desperate to use
Trump's remaining time in office to ignite a military confrontation with
Iran.
The Arab states, particularly in the Gulf, have an interest in clipping
Iran's wings and want to stop Tehran's nuclear programme and its development
of advanced ballistic missiles. However, these countries fear war in case of
shrapnel heads in their direction and hit their oil and gas facilities
causing widespread devastation. The Gulf States have no interest in a
comprehensive military confrontation and are aware that US aircraft and
missiles will be launched from their land, territorial waters, and airspace.
They also know that Iran has made it clear that they will be in the firing
line, as its response to a US strike will not be limited to American
targets, but will extend to Washington's allies. Gulf diplomats have been
busy recently to avoid such a scenario.
Another possible third party with an interest in lighting the fuse is one or
more of the many jihadist groups in the region, including Daesh. They have
the financial and logistical resources to do so, and their leaders would
love nothing more than to see their sworn enemies engaging in a fierce war.
The threats by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that missiles from
Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad will be aimed at Israel were not
meaningless. Israel is, after all, the regional party most enthusiastic
about war, and it is far beyond Iran's range. Such an attack would be more
damaging than the Iraqi missiles fired towards Israel in 1991. What would
really harm Israel is fire from Gaza, Southern Lebanon, and Syria
simultaneously, along with anything that Iran may throw its way. Iranian
comments in this respect are, perhaps, sufficient to deter Israel from
translating what is going on in its criminal mind into action.
This article first appeared in Arabic in Addustour on 4 January 2021.
Oraib Rantawi is the founder and director general of the Amman-based Al Quds
Center for Political Studies and an established writer and columnist. He has
authored and edited several strategic studies and organized and participated
in seminars and conferences in Jordan and internationally. He is also a
frequent commentator and analyst on television and has produced his own show
"Qadaya wa Ahdath" (Issues and Events.)
Via Middle East Monitor
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not
necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor or Informed
Comment.
