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How Israeli moves in Jerusalem are scotching Trump's 'ultimate deal'
Jonathan Cook on May 30, 2017 9 Comments
Trump Make Israel Great Again poster in Jerusalem, paid for by the Friends
of Zion Museum, Jerusalem. (Photo: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun)
A decision by Donald Trump this Thursday could prove fateful for the
immediate future of Jerusalem, the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict and
the region.
He must decide whether to renew a presidential waiver, signed by his
predecessor, Barack Obama, that expires on June 1. The six-month waiver
delays implementing a law passed by Congress in 1995 that requires the U.S.
to recognize occupied Jerusalem as Israel's capital and relocate its embassy
there from Tel Aviv.
It is a law every president for the past 22 years has balked at. It would
pre-empt the Oslo accords and negate Washington's assumed role as "honest
broker". Carrying out Congress's wish would deny the Palestinians East
Jerusalem, the only credible capital of a future Palestinian state.
But equally significantly, the law would recognise Israel's efforts to claim
sovereignty over the Old City's holy places, especially the incendiary site
of Al Aqsa mosque. That could provoke a conflagration both locally, among
Palestinians, and more generally in the Middle East.
Trump's key advisers are reported to be bitterly divided. Some, such as
secretary of state Rex Tillerson, warn that, if the president fails to
approve the deferral, his claims to be crafting the "ultimate deal" to bring
peace to the region will be doomed from the outset.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies, including in the
U.S. Congress, are doing their best to pressure Trump in the opposite
direction.
On Sunday, Netanyahu staged a provocative stunt, holding his weekly cabinet
meeting in a tunnel under Al Aqsa mosque compound to announce measures to
bring millions more Jewish visitors to the occupied Old City, including a
new cable car to the edge of the mosque.
It was Netanyahu's decision to open the Western Wall Tunnel in 1996, when he
first became prime minister, that brought the Oslo process into almost
terminal crisis at an early stage. Three days of clashes killed more than
100 Palestinians and 17 Israeli soldiers.
Next Tuesday, meanwhile, the U.S. Congress and Israel's parliament in
Jerusalem are due to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Israel's illegal
occupation of the city in a ceremony conducted via video link.
The Jerusalem Post reported on Monday that either Trump or vice-president
Mike Pence are due to participate, in what could be interpreted as the first
tacit recognition by the White House of Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
That would be a continuation of Trump's break with official US policy
towards Jerusalem during his visit to the region last week. He became the
first sitting president to visit the Jewish prayer plaza at the Western
Wall, below Al Aqsa. It was unclear whether his advisers had explained that
where he stood had been a Palestinian neighbourhood 50 years ago, before it
was ethnically cleansed.
Trump stuffed a note into the wall, in what observers hoped was a plea for
divine help in solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
But the Western Wall visit was more probably an effort to placate his core
supporters. Christian evangelicals paid for dozens of billboards across
Jerusalem reminding Trump that he won the election only because of their
votes - and that they expect the U.S. embassy to be moved to Jerusalem.
The day after Trump's departure, Netanyahu exploited the president's
attendance at the wall to further damage prospects for peacemaking. He made
a provocative speech to mark "Jerusalem Day", Israel's annual show of
strength in East Jerusalem.
He claimed that Trump had disproved the "lies" promoted by the United
Nations cultural body, Unesco, when it voted this month to re-state that
Jerusalem is occupied.
In truth, it was Netanyahu who indulged in gross mendacity, claiming that
East Jerusalem had been "desolate" and "neglected" before its occupation.
Israel had "redeemed" the city, he said, while Al Aqsa mosque would "always
remain under Israeli sovereignty".
His supporters tried to give that claim concrete expression by staging the
largest-ever march through the Old City on Jerusalem Day. Palestinians were
forced into hiding or fled early as police allowed 60,000 Jewish
ultra-nationalists to besiege the heart of East Jerusalem.
In a sign of the power balance in Israel, a small group of 50 left-wing Jews
- many from the U.S. - linked arms to try to block the march at the Old
City's entrance. Footage showed police brutally arresting them, grabbing
them in chokeholds and breaking one woman's arm.
Jerusalem is the most intractable of the final-status issues set out in the
Oslo process. Those expecting miracles of Trump are going to be
disappointed. His commitment to pressuring Netanyahu is weak, while the
Israeli prime minister's commitment to making concessions is non-existent.
Whether Trump signs the waiver or not on Thursday, all indications are that
the US president - faced with domestic pressures and an intransigent Israeli
government - is going nowhere with his "ultimate deal".
The only real question to be decided on Thursday is whether Trump prefers to
take the fast or protracted route to failure.
A version of this article first appeared in the National, Abu Dhabi on May
29, 2017 under the headline "Thursday marks the first test of Donald Trump's
'ultimate deal.'"
