Published on Alternet (http://www.alternet.org)
Home > Bernie Won All the Focus Groups & Online Polls - So Why Is the Media
Saying Hillary Won the Debate?
________________________________________
Bernie Won All the Focus Groups & Online Polls - So Why Is the Media Saying
Hillary Won the Debate?
By Adam Johnson [1] / AlterNet [2]
October 14, 2015
Who "won" a debate is inherently subjective. The idea of "winning" a debate
necessarily entails a goal to be achieved. What this goal is, therefore,
says as much about the person judging its achievement than the goal itself.
Pundits are ostensibly supposed to judge whether or not a candidate said
what "the voters" want to hear. But what ends up happening, invariably, is
they end up judging whether or not the candidate said what they think voters
wanted to hear. This, after all, is why pundits exist, to act a clergy class
charged with interpreting people's own inscrutable opinions for them. The
chasm between what the pundits saw and what the public was quite big last
night.
Bernie Sanders by all objective measures won the debate. Hands down. I don't
say this as a personal analysis of the debate - the very idea of "winning" a
debate is silly to me. I say this because based on the only relatively
objective metric we have, online polls and focus groups, he did win. And
it's not even close.
Sanders won the CNN focus group, [3] the Fusion focus group [4], and the Fox
News focus group [5] - in the latter, he even converted several Hillary
supporters. He won the Slate online poll [6], the CNN/Time online poll [7],
9News Colorado [8], The Street online poll [9], Fox5 poll, [10] the
conservative Drudge online poll [11] and the liberal Daily Kos online poll
[12]. There wasn't, to this writer's knowledge, a poll he didn't win by at
least an 18 point margin. But you wouldn't know this from reading the
establishment press. The New York Times [13], The New Yorker [14], CNN [15],
Politico [16], Slate [17], New York Magazine [18], and Vox [19] all of which
unanimously say Hillary Clinton cleaned house. What gives?
Firstly, it's important to point out that online polls, and to a lesser
extent focus groups, are obviously not scientific. But it's also important
to point out that the echo chamber musings of establishment liberal pundits
is far, far less scientific. It wasn't that the online polls and focus
groups had Sanders winning, it's that they had him winning by a lot. And it
wasn't just that the pundit classes has Clinton winning, it's that they had
her winning by a lot. This gap speaks to a larger gap that we've seen since
the beginning of Sanders campaign. The mainstream media writes off Bernie
and is constantly shocked [20] when his polls numbers go up. What explains
this phenomenon? Freddie DeBoer, writing about the gap between what the
pundits saw and what the public saw, had this to say [21]:
This morning, I've been pointing out on Twitter that the unanimity of
pro-Hillary Clinton journalism coming from the mouthpieces of establishment
Democratic politics - Slate, Vox, New York Magazine, etc. - is entirely
predictable and has no meaningful relationship to her actual performance at
the debate last night. That's because, one, the Democrats are a centrist
party that is interested in maintaining the stranglehold of the DNC
establishment on their presidential politics, and these publications toe
that line. And second, because Clinton has long been assumed to be the heavy
favorite to win the presidency, these publications are in a heated battle to
produce the most sympathetic coverage, in order to gain access. That is a
tried-and-true method of career advancement in political journalism. Ezra
Klein was a well-regarded blogger and journalist. He became the most
influential journalist in DC (and someone, I can tell you with great
confidence, that young political journalists are terrified of crossing)
through his rabid defense of Obamacare, and subsequent access to the
President. That people would try and play the same role with Clinton is as
natural and unsurprising as I can imagine.
So many establishment journalists were in a hurry to declare Clinton not
just the winner of the debate, but the election. One fairly creepy exchange
between Ryan Lizza of The New Yorker and Alec MacGillis summed it up nicely:
"Pretend" there's a race? Isn't that sort of the whole point of democracy?
To have as much debate and vetting as possible before nominating a potential
leader of the free world? Matt Yglesias at Vox also dismissed this entire
primary process out of hand:
It's unclear what the rush is. The first primary is months away and they're
ready to call it based entirely on they and their pundit buddies ad hoc
analysis of one debate. This tweet by Michael Cohen of the Boston Globe
would perfectly sum up mainstream media's cluelessness:
A "protest candidate"? If Cohen hasn't noticed the electorate is full of
piss and vinegar and rancor which is precisely why an otherwise obscure,
self-described socialist has rose in the polls the way he has.
But the question still remains: why the rush to write off Sanders? Why the
constant gap between how the public perceives Sanders and how the mainstream
media does? Why, most of all, would anyone listen to the very same pundit
class that was wrong in '08 and continues to be wrong in 2015?
Adam Johnson is an associate editor at AlterNet. Follow him on Twitter at
@adamjohnsonnyc [22].
Share on Facebook Share
Share on Twitter Tweet
Report typos and corrections to 'corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx'. [23]
[24]
________________________________________
Source URL:
http://www.alternet.org/media/bernie-won-all-focus-groups-online-polls-so-wh
y-media-saying-hillary-won-debate
Links:
[1] http://www.alternet.org/authors/adam-johnson-0
[2] http://alternet.org
[3]
http://www.politicususa.com/2015/10/14/cnn-focus-group-bernie-sanders-won-de
mocratic-debate.html
[4]
http://fusion.net/story/214234/bernie-sanders-wins-democratic-debate-focus-g
roup/
[5]
http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/10/13/frank-luntz-focus-group-says-bernie-sa
nders-was-big-winner-democratic-debate
[6]
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/10/democratic_
debate_who_won_vote_in_our_poll.html
[7]
http://time.com/4071956/democratic-debate-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-pol
l-who-won/
[8]
http://www.9news.com/story/news/local/politics/2015/10/13/democratic-preside
ntial-debate-poll-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton/73893908/
[9]
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13322968/1/poll-who-won-the-democratic-debate
-who-will-win-the-nomination.html
[10]
http://fox5sandiego.com/2015/10/13/poll-who-won-the-cnn-democratic-debate/
[11] http://www.drudgereport.com/now.htm
[12]
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/14/1432016/-Poll-Who-won-the-debate
[13]
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/us/politics/hillary-clinton-turns-up-heat-
on-bernie-sanders-in-a-sharp-debate.html
[14] https://twitter.com/RyanLizza/status/654129142070386688
[15] http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/13/politics/democratic-debate-updates/
[16]
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/the-politico-caucus-democratic-debate-
winner-loser-insider-214771
[17]
http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2015/10/hillary_clinton_and_b
ernie_sanders_at_the_democratic_debate_she_won_but.html
[18]
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/10/hillary-clinton-panic-may-have-
just-ended.html
[19] http://www.vox.com/2015/10/14/9528881/2015-democratic-debate-cnn
[20]
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/chuck-todd-astounded-by-hillarys-drop-in-polls-be
hind-bernie-sanders/
[21]
http://fredrikdeboer.com/2015/10/14/no-one-doesnt-know-whats-happening-right
-now/
[22] https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonnyc
[23] mailto:corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx?Subject=Typo on Bernie Won All the
Focus Groups & Online Polls - So Why Is the Media Saying Hillary Won the
Debate?
[24] http://www.alternet.org/
[25] http://www.alternet.org/%2Bnew_src%2B
Published on Alternet (http://www.alternet.org)
Home > Bernie Won All the Focus Groups & Online Polls - So Why Is the Media
Saying Hillary Won the Debate?
Bernie Won All the Focus Groups & Online Polls - So Why Is the Media Saying
Hillary Won the Debate?
By Adam Johnson [1] / AlterNet [2]
October 14, 2015
Who "won" a debate is inherently subjective. The idea of "winning" a debate
necessarily entails a goal to be achieved. What this goal is, therefore,
says as much about the person judging its achievement than the goal itself.
Pundits are ostensibly supposed to judge whether or not a candidate said
what "the voters" want to hear. But what ends up happening, invariably, is
they end up judging whether or not the candidate said what they think voters
wanted to hear. This, after all, is why pundits exist, to act a clergy class
charged with interpreting people's own inscrutable opinions for them. The
chasm between what the pundits saw and what the public was quite big last
night.
Bernie Sanders by all objective measures won the debate. Hands down. I don't
say this as a personal analysis of the debate - the very idea of "winning" a
debate is silly to me. I say this because based on the only relatively
objective metric we have, online polls and focus groups, he did win. And
it's not even close.
Sanders won the CNN focus group, [3] the Fusion focus group [4], and the Fox
News focus group [5] - in the latter, he even converted several Hillary
supporters. He won the Slate online poll [6], the CNN/Time online poll [7],
9News Colorado [8], The Street online poll [9], Fox5 poll, [10] the
conservative Drudge online poll [11] and the liberal Daily Kos online poll
[12]. There wasn't, to this writer's knowledge, a poll he didn't win by at
least an 18 point margin. But you wouldn't know this from reading the
establishment press. The New York Times [13], The New Yorker [14], CNN [15],
Politico [16], Slate [17], New York Magazine [18], and Vox [19] all of which
unanimously say Hillary Clinton cleaned house. What gives?
Firstly, it's important to point out that online polls, and to a lesser
extent focus groups, are obviously not scientific. But it's also important
to point out that the echo chamber musings of establishment liberal pundits
is far, far less scientific. It wasn't that the online polls and focus
groups had Sanders winning, it's that they had him winning by a lot. And it
wasn't just that the pundit classes has Clinton winning, it's that they had
her winning by a lot. This gap speaks to a larger gap that we've seen since
the beginning of Sanders campaign. The mainstream media writes off Bernie
and is constantly shocked [20] when his polls numbers go up. What explains
this phenomenon? Freddie DeBoer, writing about the gap between what the
pundits saw and what the public saw, had this to say [21]:
This morning, I've been pointing out on Twitter that the unanimity of
pro-Hillary Clinton journalism coming from the mouthpieces of establishment
Democratic politics - Slate, Vox, New York Magazine, etc. - is entirely
predictable and has no meaningful relationship to her actual performance at
the debate last night. That's because, one, the Democrats are a centrist
party that is interested in maintaining the stranglehold of the DNC
establishment on their presidential politics, and these publications toe
that line. And second, because Clinton has long been assumed to be the heavy
favorite to win the presidency, these publications are in a heated battle to
produce the most sympathetic coverage, in order to gain access. That is a
tried-and-true method of career advancement in political journalism. Ezra
Klein was a well-regarded blogger and journalist. He became the most
influential journalist in DC (and someone, I can tell you with great
confidence, that young political journalists are terrified of crossing)
through his rabid defense of Obamacare, and subsequent access to the
President. That people would try and play the same role with Clinton is as
natural and unsurprising as I can imagine.
So many establishment journalists were in a hurry to declare Clinton not
just the winner of the debate, but the election. One fairly creepy exchange
between Ryan Lizza of The New Yorker and Alec MacGillis summed it up nicely:
"Pretend" there's a race? Isn't that sort of the whole point of democracy?
To have as much debate and vetting as possible before nominating a potential
leader of the free world? Matt Yglesias at Vox also dismissed this entire
primary process out of hand:
It's unclear what the rush is. The first primary is months away and they're
ready to call it based entirely on they and their pundit buddies ad hoc
analysis of one debate. This tweet by Michael Cohen of the Boston Globe
would perfectly sum up mainstream media's cluelessness:
A "protest candidate"? If Cohen hasn't noticed the electorate is full of
piss and vinegar and rancor which is precisely why an otherwise obscure,
self-described socialist has rose in the polls the way he has.
But the question still remains: why the rush to write off Sanders? Why the
constant gap between how the public perceives Sanders and how the mainstream
media does? Why, most of all, would anyone listen to the very same pundit
class that was wrong in '08 and continues to be wrong in 2015?
Adam Johnson is an associate editor at AlterNet. Follow him on Twitter at
@adamjohnsonnyc [22].
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.
Report typos and corrections to 'corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx'. [23]
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.[24]
Source URL:
http://www.alternet.org/media/bernie-won-all-focus-groups-online-polls-so-wh
y-media-saying-hillary-won-debate
Links:
[1] http://www.alternet.org/authors/adam-johnson-0
[2] http://alternet.org
[3]
http://www.politicususa.com/2015/10/14/cnn-focus-group-bernie-sanders-won-de
mocratic-debate.html
[4]
http://fusion.net/story/214234/bernie-sanders-wins-democratic-debate-focus-g
roup/
[5]
http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/10/13/frank-luntz-focus-group-says-bernie-sa
nders-was-big-winner-democratic-debate
[6]
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/10/democratic_
debate_who_won_vote_in_our_poll.html
[7]
http://time.com/4071956/democratic-debate-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-pol
l-who-won/
[8]
http://www.9news.com/story/news/local/politics/2015/10/13/democratic-preside
ntial-debate-poll-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton/73893908/
[9]
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13322968/1/poll-who-won-the-democratic-debate
-who-will-win-the-nomination.html
[10]
http://fox5sandiego.com/2015/10/13/poll-who-won-the-cnn-democratic-debate/
[11] http://www.drudgereport.com/now.htm
[12]
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/14/1432016/-Poll-Who-won-the-debate
[13]
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/us/politics/hillary-clinton-turns-up-heat-
on-bernie-sanders-in-a-sharp-debate.html
[14] https://twitter.com/RyanLizza/status/654129142070386688
[15] http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/13/politics/democratic-debate-updates/
[16]
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/the-politico-caucus-democratic-debate-
winner-loser-insider-214771
[17]
http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2015/10/hillary_clinton_and_b
ernie_sanders_at_the_democratic_debate_she_won_but.html
[18]
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/10/hillary-clinton-panic-may-have-
just-ended.html
[19] http://www.vox.com/2015/10/14/9528881/2015-democratic-debate-cnn
[20]
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/chuck-todd-astounded-by-hillarys-drop-in-polls-be
hind-bernie-sanders/
[21]
http://fredrikdeboer.com/2015/10/14/no-one-doesnt-know-whats-happening-right
-now/
[22] https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonnyc
[23] mailto:corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx?Subject=Typo on Bernie Won All the
Focus Groups & Online Polls - So Why Is the Media Saying Hillary Won the
Debate?
[24] http://www.alternet.org/
[25] http://www.alternet.org/%2Bnew_src%2B
