Computers can never be 100% reliable because of constant changes to the
software (and probably hardware too). Maybe if companies changed the software
development paradigm to "Let's not make any changes to the software, just fix
all the bugs instead"...can't ever imagine that happening!
From: austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Christine Kent
Sent: Wednesday, 29 June 2016 11:01 AM
To: austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: atw: Re: Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation (as we know
it) will be obsolete by 2030
I am doubting that computers can EVER be made 100% reliable.
All car maintenance relies on human beings being up to the task. The electronic
diagnostics are rendering mechanics incapable of diagnosing a fault themselves,
so if the diagnostics fail - as they did in the horrible scary Peugeot I drove,
they are in trouble. Until computers are 100% reliable, the idea of
self-driving cars will sit on the shelves as a good idea that can't yet be
implemented.
There is currently a massive cover up going on by the car companies with these
electronically managed cars, who are terrified of the law suits that will rain
down on them if they ever admit to fault. I would guess the first few deaths in
self-driving vehicles will also be covered up.
It would be interesting if the Tesla vehicle has got 100% reliable electronics,
but how would you know until the first rat chewed through the insulation, or
you lived through your first flooding rains? Are the Tesla vehicles
self-driving? Or just electrically powered?
There is a human nature component to self-driving. How many of us are prepared
to trust our lives to a machine?
If you can find the time, please check out those parties before, not after, the
election. They might be worth a senate vote.
From:
austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<mailto:austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
[mailto:austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of LIVERANI Petra
Sent: Wednesday, 29 June 2016 10:45 AM
To: austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<mailto:austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: atw: Re: Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation (as we know
it) will be obsolete by 2030
Hi Christine,
Forgot to consider the electronics costs. Oh yes, only 80 moving parts but lots
of electronics that are costly to repair - presumably diagnostics will become
much more sophisticated and they'll become cheaper to maintain. That does sound
like a very scary experience and a big turnoff, however, I'm assuming it's
teething problems as opposed to something that will mean the technology is
doomed - in fact, it simply has to be rectified - we cannot continue with
fossil fuels or even biofuels. I heard that the Tesla Roadster had similar
problems but I haven't heard of the Model S having those problems - not to say
it hasn't, I simply haven't heard of it.
The online political party websites look very interesting. I will look at them
closely after the election.
Regards,
Petra
Petra Liverani
Technical Writer / UX Designer
TMC Systems Development
Operational Systems
Infrastructure and Services
Transport for NSW
T 02 8396 1617 | F 02 8396 7950 | M 0401 023 961
25 Garden St, Eveleigh NSW 2015
Use public transport... plan your trip at
transportnsw.info<http://www.transportnsw.info/>
From:
austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<mailto:austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
[mailto:austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Christine Kent
Sent: Tuesday, 28 June 2016 1:15 PM
To: austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<mailto:austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: atw: Re: Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation (as we know
it) will be obsolete by 2030
Thanks, Petra
I love the concept of disruption and his general argument. It is happening in
so many areas. But there are some flaws in this talk. He is assuming that
self-driving cars will disrupt. They will not until computers can be trusted.
One of the biggest cover-ups is going on right now with European cars that are
highly electric. They drive on diesel or petrol, but the car is controlled by
computers. A distant relative of mine died in a VW and the company has done the
biggest cover up to deny that the death resulted from the car simply shutting
down. Recently I borrowed a friend's Peugeot. I was driving along happily when
it simply shut down, leaving me abandoned inside with no controls. Fortunately
I was going slowly up a hill on a curve with no-one behind me, and was able to
roll backwards onto a kerb, which stopped me. Then the car agreed to re-start
and I was able to get home in limp home mode. Peugeot denied there was any
serious problem with the car. I then did a lot of research on-line and found a
wealth of complaints from people who were selling their highly electronic cars
because they routinely shut down and there is no way of fixing them. If you
have ever been sitting in a car with no control, you will never do it again.
Add to that the cost of working on these cars. Maybe there will be less moving
parts in electric powered cars, but computers are a nightmare to fix when they
malfunction. Software blames hardware, hardware blames software, they both
blame the user and no-one is ever held answerable - except for paying the bills
handed out by those who fail to fix the problem but charge you extortionate
prices for the privilege of having them look. I had my friend's car towed by
Peugeot to the Peugeot repairer. A week later they call me to come and pick it
up - yes they had the car for a week. I took a train and a cab to get to the
car, collected it plus the $2,000 invoice for my friend to pay (they changed
the fuse box), and drive it home. The next day, it stopped on me again. I never
drove it again. I will go as far as to say that I will never drive an
"intelligent car" again. You cannot imagine the terror until you are trapped
inside a car over which you have no control.
So a lot of what he is saying is great, but as I have spotted one false
argument for one topic I actually know something about, there may be other
fallacies in the DETAILS of his arguments. But as far as the general drift is
concerned - he is right.
For anyone paying attention to the current election, take a look at this. It is
also a future disruption. It is possible now, and working now, and two
different parties are fielding a few candidates in this election. There are two
parties because they disagree on one key and fairly critical issue - enabling
the delegation of votes. There are a few political factors to iron out, but
the technology is there.
https://voteflux.org/
http://www.onlinedirectdemocracy.org/
Think about the long term implications. True representative democracy has never
been possible before. It is possible now. How could this change our political
system?
It is one reason I keep trying to generate futuristic discussion on our
industry. We have been disrupted to the point of destruction, and we are
denying the disruption let alone the destruction. New players have come into
the gaps left by the disruption and we are pretending that nothing has changed.
Christine
From:
austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<mailto:austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
[mailto:austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of LIVERANI Petra
Sent: Tuesday, 28 June 2016 12:04 PM
To: austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<mailto:austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: atw: Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation (as we know it)
will be obsolete by 2030
Hi all,
Excellent presentation (53 minutes) by thought leader, Tony Seba, outlining the
inevitable disruption in the transport and energy space that will take place
until 2030 in large part due to the typical S-shaped technology trajectory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM
Also, below, some links to the recent TfNSW Transport Summit
Summit homepage
https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au
Link to video gallery of speakers. Note that each video link takes you to the
point in the video where the speaker is being introduced.
https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/summit16-video-gallery/
Link to various papers/videos on disruptive technologies
https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Future-Transport-Cubic-Disruptive-Technologies.pdf
Regards,
Petra
1900 - Easter Parade NYC - Spot the car
... 13 years later (1913) - Easter Parade NYC - Spot the horse
[http://mountaintownnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/EasterParade1900.jpg]
[http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4mPQ9Y_be08/VfEntwKrQcI/AAAAAAAAECY/ZXQEeLKn0DQ/s1600/Spot%2Bhorse%2Bpic%2Bcopy.jpg]
2016 - Spot the EV (electric vehicle)
2030 - Spot the ICE? (internal combustion engine vehicle)
[Tesla Autopilot - traffic lane change]
[China and other regions are also deploying fleets of electric vehicles.]
Petra Liverani
Technical Writer / UX Designer
TMC Systems Development
Operational Systems
Infrastructure and Services
Transport for NSW
T 02 8396 1617 | F 02 8396 7950 | M 0401 023 961
25 Garden St, Eveleigh NSW 2015
Use public transport... plan your trip at
transportnsw.info<http://www.transportnsw.info/>
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