[AR] Re: The end of Virgin Orbit

  • From: Rand Simberg <simberg@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2023 08:33:19 -0700

The market niche for air launch is rapid response and single-orbit rendezvous, but there's insufficient demand from USAF/USSF to support the high fixed cost.

On 3/31/23 07:35, John Stoffel wrote:

"Matthew" == Matthew JL <prmattjl@xxxxxxxxx> writes:
Inclined to agree - VO had an ultimately weak business case and the
capex to support air launch probably made them extra vulnerable to
The Squeeze.
It's been interesting how people keep thinking that the (potential)
flexibility of air launch and being able to choose where the
inclination and site will work out best, just hasn't worked out.

   747 for Virgin Orbit
   L-1011 for Orbital Sciences

These are the only two currently to have made it.  Stratolaunch is
still trying.

Just looks like the extra complexity isn't worth it, especially since
the size of the launcher airplane severely limits how large a rocket
you can launch.



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