[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: Mesoscale Discussion
- From: Keith Reedy <reedyk@xxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2010 16:33:00 -0400
Begin forwarded message:
> From: interwarn@xxxxxxxx
> Date: June 5, 2010 3:33:37 PM EDT
> To: reedyk@xxxxxx
> Subject: Mesoscale Discussion
>
>
> ACUS11 KWNS 051932
> SWOMCD
> SPC MCD 051931
> WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-052130-
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0231 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT MO INTO NRN
> IL/SRN WI
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 051931Z - 052130Z
>
> A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NOT
> BEFORE...ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
> INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING...BUT SIGNIFICANT
> INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY STILL BE
> SEVERAL HOURS AWAY.
>
> NEAR SURFACE FOCUS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM FORMATION IS STILL
> UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITHIN BANDS OF
> STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
> WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM...JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
> EAST...OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
> NORTHERN PLAINS.
>
> LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLOWLY STEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A
> REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI.
> COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH
> PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2 INCHES...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY
> TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
> THROUGH 21-23Z.
>
> DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW FIELDS NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
> CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
> STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CONTRIBUTE
> TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVEN.
> UNTIL THEN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE
> PRIMARY THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM.
>
> .KERR.. 06/05/2010
>
> ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
>
> LAT...LON 42729552 43349444 43519212 42979013 42418921 41818912
> 40759029 40599207 40689403 40799498 41309585 42729552
>
> $$
>
>
> This weather bulletin was brought to you by InterWARN at www.interwarn.com
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