[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: Mesoscale Discussion
- From: Keith Reedy <wa9dro@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2010 12:27:12 -0400
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Begin forwarded message:
> From: <interwarn@xxxxxxxx>
> Date: June 21, 2010 12:06:37 PM EDT
> To: <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Mesoscale Discussion
>
>
> ACUS11 KWNS 211604
> SWOMCD
> SPC MCD 211604
> OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-211730-
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1104 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND/SWRN OH
>
> CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
>
> VALID 211604Z - 211730Z
>
> HEAVY RAINFALL RATES 1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY 3+ IN/HR
> RATES...EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN IND AND SWRN OH AS
> SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS TRACK ESEWD IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT.
>
> LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
> CENTRAL IND ESEWD INTO SWRN AND SRN OH. AT 1545Z...AN OUTFLOW
> BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE TSTM COMPLEX LOCATED OVER IND INTERSECTED
> THE WARM FRONT IN SERN IND IN RUSH COUNTY. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL
> LAPSE RATES OVER THE OH VALLEY...VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
> WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES RISING
> THROUGH THE MID 80S ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
> WARM SECTOR. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /GPS PW INDICATED UP TO
> 2 INCHES IN WRN IND/ AND DEEP WARM CLOUD PROCESSES GIVEN FREEZING
> LEVEL UP TO 14 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATE
> POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
>
> 30 KT WNWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IND
> PER WSR-88D VADS IS RESULTING IN A WAA REGIME THAT SHOULD MAINTAIN
> NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS...WHILE THE
> MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EWD
> ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN THAT SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS WILL
> TRACK ESEWD ACROSS FAR SERN IND INTO SWRN OH THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
> AFTERNOON AND CORFIDI VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAK...TRAINING
> STORMS MAY ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATE POTENTIAL IN ANY ONE
> LOCATION.
>
> .PETERS.. 06/21/2010
>
> ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...
>
> LAT...LON 39488508 39678476 39588432 39368380 39018358 39038430
> 39118509 39078576 39488508
>
> $$
>
>
> This weather bulletin was brought to you by InterWARN at www.interwarn.com
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