Begin forwarded message: > From: interwarn@xxxxxxxx > Date: June 5, 2010 3:33:37 PM EDT > To: reedyk@xxxxxx > Subject: Mesoscale Discussion > > > ACUS11 KWNS 051932 > SWOMCD > SPC MCD 051931 > WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-052130- > > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816 > NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK > 0231 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010 > > AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT MO INTO NRN > IL/SRN WI > > CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY > > VALID 051931Z - 052130Z > > A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NOT > BEFORE...ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN > INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING...BUT SIGNIFICANT > INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY STILL BE > SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. > > NEAR SURFACE FOCUS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM FORMATION IS STILL > UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITHIN BANDS OF > STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC > WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM...JUST TO THE SOUTH AND > EAST...OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE > NORTHERN PLAINS. > > LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLOWLY STEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A > REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. > COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH > PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2 INCHES...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY > TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH > THROUGH 21-23Z. > > DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW FIELDS NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL > CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE PROCESS OF > STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CONTRIBUTE > TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVEN. > UNTIL THEN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE > PRIMARY THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM. > > .KERR.. 06/05/2010 > > ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... > > ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... > > LAT...LON 42729552 43349444 43519212 42979013 42418921 41818912 > 40759029 40599207 40689403 40799498 41309585 42729552 > > $$ > > > This weather bulletin was brought to you by InterWARN at www.interwarn.com Illiana Skywarn - Serving the Wabash Valley since 1974 Participate or Listen on: 145.230 (- / no PL) Vigo, Edgar, Clark, Vermillion, Parke, Clay and Sullivan 146.715 (- / no PL) overflow for Vermillion and Parke 444.600 (+ / no PL) UHF link into 145.230/r 146.685 (- / 151.4Hz) as a backup