[opendtv] Re: Pace 'turns the corner' and returns to profit
- From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2007 12:31:58 -0500
On 2/6/07, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> It's really not that difficult to figure out Bert.
>
> There is a vibrant market for cable and DBS STBs in the U.S.
> due to fact that 85% of U.S. homes don;t use antennas. Of
> the remaining 15% of U.S. homes, only a small percentage
> have invested in DTV.
Correction: you're talking about households, not TV sets.
> There is a vibrant market for DVB-T STBs in Europe.
Oh, I think I understand. So, Pace might lose money on every DVB-T STB
it manufactures, but it makes that up by selling in large volume.
Bert
There is no correlation between making and losing money and vibrant
markets. Companies pick markets that they THINK they can make money in
and then they TRY to make money there.
A vibrant market usually means a LOT of companies are competing at
HIGH volumes and it is possible that in such a vibrant market NO one
makes any profits.
In other markets NO one enters at all or very few and at low volumes.
These markets are perceived by the competitors as BAD markets for
whatever reason.
Australia was perceived by the pundits as being a HORRIBLE market
before the start of their digital transition. Most thought that NO
manufacturer at all would enter that market because of its size, 19
million people, the size of its broadcast channel, 7 MHz, its choice
to do triple cast of HD, SD and analog and other differences.
But today we see a VIBRANT market in OZ with 108 different STB's listed here
http://www.dba.org.au/index.asp?sectionID=18
62 digital TV sets listed here
http://www.dba.org.au/index.asp?sectionID=78
Lots of education about the transition also. Lots of in store
demonstrations of OTA.
And at 19 million people the market in OZ is less than HALF the OTA
only market that most want to say is 15% of US households or around 44
million people. If you start counting the OTA analog TV sets in other
rooms of cable or satellite households in the US the US market is FAR
bigger than the TOTAL market in OZ.
It would seem the quickest way to get an answer about this anomaly
would be to call Pace, LG and all the others who are fighting it out
in OZ and ask them why they are ignoring the far bigger US market no
matter how you count it.
I could tell you what Pace, Nokia and LG have told me but you don't
want to hear it. At least Pace and Nokia said a bit of what they
thought at the hearings in 2000. I don't think they have changed their
minds. I did get an inquiry from DiBcom about the possibility of a
market with 8-VSB and diversity a few years back and my answer was
filled with smillies.
Bob Miller
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