[opendtv] Re: News: No Motive for HDTV Rollouts
- From: "John Willkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 12:08:57 -0700
You are incorrect in the current time frame. HDTV is not a premium niche
market TODAY. It is something that people consider when they replace their
TV set. They know they can buy an analog set for $1000 or less; they also
know that for a few bucks (or a few thousand bucks) more they can buy a TV
set that will do their DVDs justice. Doing digital cable or digital OTA
justice is just icing on the cake. I should note -- again and again -- that
for a mere $300 more, these people can have a OTA stb, if their set does not
offer one.
These are medium income people -- okay, often with two household incomes.
They do not buy a premium niche product (it ain't a niche); they buy the
"next best thing."
Do you also consider DVDs to be a premium niche market?
How about high-speed internet access? (Here in San Diego, more than 55% of
the internet connections are DSL or cable modems; in Boston, it's 51%)
HDTV is a niche product. In Tijuana. If you want to go that route, all TV
is a premium niche product in parts of the third world.
John Willkie
-----Original Message-----
From: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Craig Birkmaier
Sent: Sunday, June 27, 2004 8:56 AM
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [opendtv] Re: News: No Motive for HDTV Rollouts
At 3:49 PM -0400 6/24/04, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>It's the cost of doing business. Exactly. The question should not
>be "how can I make money from HDTV," but rather, as time moves on,
>"how can I stay in business without HDTV?"
What business do you want to stay in?
I will predict once again, as I have many times in the past, that
HDTV will continue to be a premium niche market for a decade or more
to come, and that it will NEVER completely replace other video
resolutions.
Will entertainment television evolve to HDTV?
The reality is that for the most part it has been HD for decades, IF
it was shot on film, and this has been the case for most high value
content. It may not, however, have been shot widescreen.
Will news evolve to HDTV?
Don't hold your breath. The application does not require it. It
should be obvious that the ability to be anywhere, anytime that news
happens, is far more important than being there in HD. We are now
accustomed to watching low frame rate satellite videophones and stuff
shot with consumer camcorders (because the shooter was lucky enough
to capture a newsworthy event).
Will documentary evolve to HDTV?
Absolutely. It is a virtual requirement today. This form of content
is significantly improved with high quality imagery. It came as no
surprise that Discorvery would be one of the first networks to move
to HDTV.
Will TV sports evolve to HDTV?
It looks like the evolution has begun, but it may take a decade for
the networks to shift to HD for all of the sporting events they
cover. And for independent sports productions it may take
significantly longer. I would not expect to see every college
football game that is covered today shot in HD for a decade or more.
We are talking about several hundred games on any given Saturday in
the fall. The "truck" inventory is simply not available to shoot
many of these games in HD.
On the other hand, I do expect that HD is going to find an important
role in sports performance evaluation. The ability to shoot a
practice with a few cameras locked down on wide shots is
significantly more appealing than having a bunch of people shooting
close-ups with SDTV camcorders.
And then there's High school sports, which may become a more
important source of local content as the roadblocks to cheap
distribution are eliminated.
Will point of sale and digital signage evolve to HDTV?
Absolutely! These applications can benefit from the ability to
combine video and graphics easily in a high resolution environment.
This is primarily being driven by the availability of addressable
panel displays (LCD and Plasma).
Will professional communications and training evolve to HDTV?
Yes, where it is appropriate. Many professional applications need the
resolution boost of HD, especially so that they can use high
resolution graphics in combination with high resolution video. But a
video conference with the CEO via the corporate intranet is not going
to be HD any time soon.
I recently visited the facilities of the Home Shopping Network in
Clearwater. We talked about the potential of HDTV for their
applications. The response was not only NO, but HELL NO!
There is little desire to show either talent or products to their
disadvantage, and this is often what happens with HDTV. Hell, we do
all kinds of tricks to make people look good on SDTV, that involve
eliminating resolution (like wrinkle removal).
But HSN is very interested in moving to widescreen - you could call
this a major renovation of the sales floor. Imagine what you could do
if your store is suddenly 25% larger...
This has many parallels to what happened with computer displays.
People wanted more desktop real estate, not more resolution. They
wanted to have more windows open, and places to place all of those
tool pallets while working on a document, image or video production.
For HSN, widescreen means more room to sell more products with more
graphics and less "competition" between the many messages that they
are delivering simultaneously.
>This has happened so many times it should have been obvious way
>back in the early days. It's like transition to color, transition
>to hifi sound, transition to radial tires in cars, transition to
>stereo radios in cars, factory-installed air conditioning, etc
>etc. The profit motive quickly vanishes. Product designers need
>to remain up to date because if they don't, the other guy will.
>
And AM radio has experienced a rebirth...based on content, not fidelity.
We are evolving into a world with MANY visual resolutions that are
appropriate for many applications. The notion that HDTV is going to
completely replace SDTV is absurd.
Regards
Craig
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