[opendtv] Re: Analysis: Time to Screen Out Unloved Channels

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Wed, 1 Jul 2009 07:03:56 -0400

At 11:50 AM -0400 6/30/09, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
This is illogical. The conglomerates "should rightly be concerned about
the Internet?" The congloms ARE putting their content on the web, and
it's free, with minimal ad interruptions. They should be concerned?

Bert, you ain't no Mr. Spock...

Only a tiny fraction of what is delivered by cable is on the Internet; and only a fraction of what the networks deliver to local broadcasters is available as well. But this is not the point I was trying to make.

The conglomerates love cable and DBS because they offer the customer service and billing infrastructure that has made it possible to collect billions in affiliate compensation from subscribers. Even more important, these distribution infrastructures are WALLED GARDENS, as you often say - all you can eat gardens that FORCE you to pay for stuff you don't want.

Bert continues:

If 85-90 million homes drop their MVPD subscriptions, do you think
they'll stop watching TV? No. They will get it free from the Internet.
And Internet ad revenues will go up, and the congloms will put more ad
breaks in their online shows, and we'll be back to ad-supported TV, with
many ads, and no way to fast-forward them. The congloms win out, easily.

No Bert, all is not free in Internet Land today, and it is likely that more and more content will be offered for SALE or rental, not just advertiser supported.

If I have a budget of $75 per month to buy TV content, I will spend it on the stuff I WANT to watch, not on stuff that I do not want. For some content ad supported is OK, as long as I don't have to pay to see the ads, as is the case today with almost all cable networks. If I want to enjoy an entertainment experience, I'll pay to avoid the ad interruptions.

But the real benefit to Internet distribution is that independent producers can deliver content without having to go through the big gatekeepers. And that is why I said the congloms should be concerned about the Internet. It is already beginning to happen with music. TV can't be too far behind.

Who should be concerned are the MVPDs, as Peers states, and affiliated
broadcasters, or any other specialized distribution medium. Why even
discuss pay-per-view, as you do often, when those that create the most
desirable content are making it available this way?

It is your opinion that the broadcast networks create the most desirable content. I hardly watch anything they produce other than sports. And the public seems to agree with me, as the content offered by the broadcast networks is now viewed by less than 40% of the total available TV audience, and that only during prime time.


The conclusion Peers comes to, "Money saved could be returned to
customers through lower charges or redirected to broadcasters. That
would level the playing field and make it easier for the industry to
come up with a coherent approach to the Web," misses the point. If the
trend is free Internet delivery of content, with no middle-man other
than a generic broadband provider, then there's no need to save any
middleman. Those who lose out most are the MVPDs and the affiliated
broadcasters.

You're close. The MVPDs are disintermediated - they lose big time, and deservedly so.

The networks and congloms also lose because their traditional function as gatekeepers of content is diminished. Content producers can gain access to viewers without having to go through the traditional gatekeepers.


 If small networks lost affiliate compensation, they would likely move
to
 the web to distribute their content, as is the case for all kinds of
 content that is already available only via the web.

I'll bet a huge percentage of content on the web makes virtually no
income. It just sits in a server somewhere, costs little to keep there,
but generates hardly a drop of revenue. That is where ther niche content
providers will end up.

Kon addressed this well. I would add that it is not necessary to make huge amounts of money. There are many program producers making a good living producing shows at $25,000 (or less) an episode for cable networks today. As viewers shift to the Internet, the potential for self distribution will improve substantially.

Regards
Craig


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