[opendtv] Re: Analysis: Broadcast TV Faces Struggle to Stay Viable
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2009 09:17:31 -0500
At 5:57 PM -0500 3/3/09, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
> So you think that the high cost of network shows is due to
production values and hiring better talent in supporting roles?
Yes in part, of course. Compare these high cost TV episodes with the
price of half a Hollywood movie, and they're still coming in very much
less.
There are MANY movies made in Hollywood for less than $5 million. And
some of these cheap movies make money, especially in the rental
markets.
The reality is that making high quality TV shows has become too
expensive to balance out the risks. And the reason is that so many
people are taking out huge chunks of money because they can.
> The answer is that the Hollywood business model is based in
risk taking. They know that only a small percentage of the
stuff they make will make money, but they make certain that
they get paid well, even when the product sucks.
That's absurd. Movies that flop still cost many millions to make.
Whether it's in the theaters or on TV, a flop stays out there very
little time, and almost certainly loses money. I'm not interested in
your political agenda, Craig. Just the economics of movie making. If
even the good shows need to cost less, due to advertizing recession,
that's what will have to happen.
What an ass. You are agreeing with me.
This is not a political agenda Bert. It is reality. These people are
not going to take pay cuts. They will cut supply to keep the prices
up, which is exactly what has happened to prime time TV.
If a production company takes out a big loan to produce a flop, which
will not make that money back and more at the box office, someone does
lose out, Craig. That company won't stay in business very long.
Production companies do not take that kind of risk. They get
investors to take those risks, typically a big studio. This is why it
costs so much to make a pilot - there is no risk for the production
company and actors - only upside if the project is successful.
Why do the studios put up with this?
Because the rewards are so high for the projects that succeed, and
they will get most of their investment back - eventually - with
secondary distribution.
It is not the "advertising recession" that is causing this
business model to break. The number of new shows has been in
decline for as long as network ratings have been in decline,
which is now bout two decades. As with other monopolies and
oligopolies that have been milked for all they are worth
throughout history, the folks in Hollywood have been pushing
the limits - in terms of compensation - as they ride the
Network TV ship down.
I read the article that started this thread, and that was not its point.
Certainly, if Hollywood actors are demanding too much, they may have to
start asking less. The car companies pulled much of their advertizing.
Didn't you ever wonder why just about every ad on TV was about cars? I
did. Many times. Well, if that ends, something has to give.
Could it be that some advertisers are finally realizing that TV
advertising is too expensive, relative to the additional revenues
that are generated? Could it be that the auto makers have too many
brands and too many dealerships, and that the business model for the
auto industry is ALSO broken?
The "model is broken" is drama queen talk. Standard hyperbole from the
trade press. The supply-demand model continues to operate as always.
Demand for storytelling ain't going away, even if the compensation for
the storyteller will become flat or even decline some. Advertizers HAVE
left the scene, Craig, in spite of what you claim. They aren't paying
more for less, some big ones are dropping out. The networks will have to
adjust, e.g. by producing more shows like "The Outer Limits," which
always had no-name actors and seemingly simple sets. It's entirely up to
them.
Craig, you have a way of posting an article that explains things, but
don't bother reading what it says. Just use it as a spingboard to
forward your own agenda.
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black!
Regards
Craig
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