The Rand argument was written in August 2004. The essentiality of it was updated and included in the Brookings argument posted by Eric a few days ago. We considered it as I read through and posted notes on Ilan Berman's Tehran Rising. The key to the surgical strike is contained in the second paragraph of the Rand Argument and everyone else's subsequent: "Iran must not be permitted to get nuclear weapons. Even if Tehran did not threaten to use them against its neighbors or give aid to terrorists, Iran's becoming a "nuclear power," however fledgling, would radically alter regional politics and relationships in the Middle East and significantly complicate the problems facing the U.S. and others." Rand, Brookings and Berman all argued that we use diplomacy to get Iran to give up their efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. The article yesterday from Britain and the one today from Australia indicate that the White House is still hoping that diplomacy will work, but if it doesn't, and at present it doesn't appear that it will, "Iran must not be permitted to get nuclear weapons." Lawrence _____ From: lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Andy Amago Sent: Sunday, February 12, 2006 11:54 AM To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: The Surgical Strike Option and the Missing Sponge I think you're right. Lawrence might get credibility if he were to refute Rand and General William Odom *specifically*. Anyone who thinks Iraq is a success isn't interested in reality. I was surprised that the Rand piece said what I've been thinking, that Iran is scared. Scared people do strange things. All we do is make them more scared. ----- Original Message ----- From: Mike Geary <mailto:atlas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx Sent: 2/12/2006 2:22:02 PM Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: The Surgical Strike Option and the Missing Sponge I've decided that Lawrence Helm just likes planning wars, like I like writing my novel -- been doing it for 30 years, doesn't matter if it ever gets finished -- it's something to do that he gets a kick out of. And I've decided that it doesn't matter what we do about Iran -- we're going to fuck it up. It's inevitable, because we (the Bush boys) are so stupid about the whole rest of the world that we think they all think like we think they think. Think again, America. If so many people weren't killed and so much suffering involved, I'd be laughing. Actually at this moment I am laughing. I'm thinking what a great musical it would make. We could get JL to write the score, call it "Bush's Faulty Intelligence". Ah well. Mike Geary Memphis