[lit-ideas] Re: Movies, clueless terrorism experts and liquid explosives
- From: Paul Stone <pas@xxxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 15:59:12 -0400
People, for reasons unknown to me, tend to fear highly
unlikely and remote causes of harm while ignoring more
likely and familiar ones. Speaking of bears, a man
driving to a camping ground worrying about being
attacked by a bear, remains an excellent example of
this. Point being that the chances of getting injured
in a traffic accident on the way are an order of
magnitude higher than being injured in a bear attack.
Teemu, your last sentence belies the reason that people are more fearful of
flying than of driving. Statistically, yes, it is more likely that you will
get in a car accident than in a plane accident -- WAY more likely, BUT, it
WAY MORE LIKELY, given both events have happened, that you will be killed
in a plane accident.
Of course it is very rare to be attacked by a bear, but unlike what you
said literally "the chances of getting injured in a traffic accident are an
order of magnitude higher than being injured in a bear attack". It is quite
backwards. People survive auto accidents constantly with very little or no
injury... whereas if a bear actually attacks, you, as a human will almost
certainly be injured.
So, it's really not foolish for a human to be more wary of rarer
circumstances which will almost certainly kill or injure you seriously than
they are of something, that, while common, is in most cases, survivable.
paul
##########
Paul Stone
pas@xxxxxxxx
Kingsville, ON, Canada
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