[lit-ideas] Re: Hitchens Arguably on John Brown
- From: Donal McEvoy <donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 18 Oct 2011 23:12:29 +0100 (BST)
________________________________
From: Eric Yost <mr.eric.yost@xxxxxxxxx>
> Rather they are subject to “power laws,” which can result in sudden and
> dramatic change. Examples include chess, economies, diplomacy, traffic
> patterns, electrical distribution systems…and consciousness.>
All was going swimmingly, then he had to go and bring consciousness into it..
From:lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
Behalf Of Andy
>On a Venn diagram coincidence and probability would partially overlap
>with most of the circles not overlapping.
Arguably. But in a Venn diagram of all inappropriate uses of a Venn diagram,
the number of circles of inappropriate uses that partially overlap would be
more in overlapping area than the area not overlapping.
>Coincidences are by definition unrelated, random events.
Unrelated in some way perhaps [e.g. causally] but not necessarily random:
neither the murder of JFK nor the death of Huxley were "random events" even if
they are unrelated except by date. The coincidence that Jack is wearing the
same tie as me may not be a random or unrelated event but because both our
wives saw the same bargain at the same store last week.
> I'm having a hard time reconciling probability and random.
We might speak of 'random' in the context of logical probability: so that the
chance of throwing 1 twice in a row on a perfect die might be 1/36 [i.e. 1/6 x
1/6]. But this kind of 'logical probability' does not explain why it is
probable that the sun will rise tomorrow or even why it is probable I shall
shortly retire; and when we speak of events in the real world we are rarely
speaking of events that are random in the sense of "logical probability"
[where it may be equally 'random' [or equi-probable] as to which of the six
numbers on a perfect die will be face up on a throw].
Not only does God play dice [indeterminism], he plays with loaded dice
[propensities] not perfect dice with only "random" outcomes. Likewise it is
better to understood evolution as being 'blind' than as being 'random'.
Donal
"The Venn diagram point was well suspect, blood."
"Random."
England
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