[lit-ideas] For the long-term trendwatchers among us
- From: "John McCreery" <john.mccreery@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: Anthro-L <ANTHRO-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 7 Aug 2006 22:18:01 +0900
It's not global warming, but you might find interesting the following
piece I just wrote for bestoftheblogs.com
=================
It has been a number of years since I read Hedrick Smith's 1990 <a
href="http://www.hedricksmith.com/topics/theWashingtonPowerGame.shtml";>The
Power Game:How Washington Works</a> and began to consider the
implications of Smith's thesis that, by allowing candidates to speak
directly to voters, TV had (1) weakened local party organizations, (2)
concentrated campaign management in the hands of the "professionals"
(pollsters, strategists, media buyers) who claimed to understand the
new medium, and (3) trapped members of Congress in a never-ending
fundraising ratrace, to pay off the costs of the last campaign and
finance the next one. If you are curious about the material driver of
Congressional leadership opposition to Howard Dean's 50-state
strategy, with its focus on local party building, look no further.
Today, however, the online edition of <a href="AdAge.com"> Ad Age</a>,
brings me this story.
<blockquote><b>Continuing Decline in TV Selling Power
Cites 50% Drop in Viewers, 40% Hike in Prime-Time Ad Spend Over Last Decade</b>
By Abbey Klaassen
Published: August 06, 2006
NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- A study is about to give Madison Avenue a
fresh pummeling: McKinsey & Co. is telling a host of major marketers
that by 2010, traditional TV advertising will be one-third as
effective as it was in 1990
<b>Shocking statistic</b>
That shocking statistic, delivered to the company's Fortune 100
clients in a report on media proliferation, assumes a 15% decrease in
buying power driving by cost-per-thousand rate increases; a 23%
decline in ads viewed due to switching off; a 9% loss of attention to
ads due to increased multitasking and a 37% decrease in message impact
due to saturation. </blockquote>
Anyone care to join me in speculating on the <b>political
implications</b> of this development?
--
John McCreery
The Word Works, Ltd., Yokohama, JAPAN
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