[Klamath County Fire Defense Board] FW: NWS Medford Briefing Update: Slight Chance of Severe Thunderstorms Friday

From: Morgan Lindsay <mlindsay@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Morgan Lindsay <mlindsay@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 5 May 2016 21:43:39 +0000

As promised, here are the flood, storm, and landslide details from the NWS. The
Oregon Dept. of Geology has also issued a press release regarding landslides,
which are an elevated risk from these storms.

The area of concern for flash flooding in Klamath County is still Bly. The
likelihood is low, with the greatest threat existing tomorrow. There is also a
marginal chance of some thunderstorms turning severe in Klamath County, which
means hail can be 1” in diameter and wind speeds can exceed 58 mph (these are
considered damaging winds, wherein loose outdoor items can be blown away, or
roof shingles may disappear, or unstable trees and branches may be toppled).

Now is a great time to do some thunderstorm and lightning safety training –
check this website out: http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/

Don’t hesitate to contact me should you have any questions. Thanks!

Morgan Lindsay
Klamath County Emergency Management
2543 Shasta Way, Klamath Falls, OR 97603
541-851-3741 Office
541-281-8357 Cell

From: Bradley Schaaf - NOAA Federal [mailto:bradley.schaaf@xxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2016 2:05 PM
Subject: NWS Medford Briefing Update: Slight Chance of Severe Thunderstorms
Friday

Partners, conditions still appear to be favorable to have a few isolated severe
storms tomorrow. We have also updated our briefing e-mail to include the
possibility for flash flooding and landslides across portions of Modoc,
Siskiyou, Lake, and Eastern Klamath Counties. The updates are highlighted in
yellow.

[Inline image 1]

Update: Slight Chance of Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Impacts
·  Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on Friday with a slight
chance of a few isolated severe storms.
·  Large hail around 1 inch is possible as well as frequent lightning.
·  Slow storm motions could bring heavy rain and possible flash flooding or
landslides. Have issued a flash flood watch for this hazard (see attached
graphic.)
·  Best chances for severe thunderstorms are along the Cascades and eastward
(see attached graphic)

Forecast Confidence
·  High confidence of scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the area.
·  Low to medium confidence that a few isolated thunderstorms will become
severe.
·  Low to medium confidence in slow storm motions resulting in heavy rain,
flash flooding or landslides.
Timing and Strength
·  Thunderstorms:
o Thunderstorms increasing in coverage becoming scattered to numerous during
the day Friday and continuing into Friday evening.
o Storms may become severe Friday afternoon and evening. Large hail and
frequent lightning are possible.
·  Heavy rain/flash flooding:
o Slow storm motions to begin this evening with a brief break overnight. Then
as storms begin tomorrow, the flash flooding threat will go up.
o Flash flooding or landslides will be most possible in areas of steep terrain
or over burn scars.

Weather Summary

An upper low will move into California this afternoon and Friday. This will
send ample moisture and unstable air into the area bringing numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Of concern is that this low will bring the potential for
severe thunderstorms with large hail as well as frequent lighting. With weak
steering flow, these storms may be slow moving and generate the possibility for
landslides and flash flooding. There is low to medium confidence on the exact
timing and location for these storms. Please monitor the NWS forecasts for
additional details. There is a possibility for severe storms and flash flooding
beginning later this afternoon continuing through Friday evening. The best
chance will be on Friday.

For a detailed view of the hazards areas, visit the NWS Weather and Hazards
Viewer.<http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr>
Please do not reply to this email. Contact NWS Medford at (541)
773-1067<tel:%28541%29%20773-1067> for a 24x7 forecaster.

Monitor NWS Medford on the web<http://weather.gov/medford>
Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/NationalWeatherService.Medford.gov?sk=wall>
Twitter<https://twitter.com/NWSMedford> and
YouTube<https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSMedford> for further updates.

For information on how to receive our warnings via our iNWS notification
system, contact
ryan.sandler@xxxxxxxx<mailto:ryan.sandler@xxxxxxxx>.<mailto:tyree.wilde@xxxxxxxx>

Brad

--
Bradley Schaaf
Meteorologist Intern
National Weather Service
4003 Cirrus Drive
Medford, OR 97504-4198
bradley.schaaf@xxxxxxxx<mailto:bradley.schaaf@xxxxxxxx>
(541)-773-1067

Attachment: Mrgnl Risk 5-6-16.PNG
Description: Mrgnl Risk 5-6-16.PNG

Attachment: Flash Flood Watch 5-6-16.PNG
Description: Flash Flood Watch 5-6-16.PNG

Attachment: DOGAMI Landslide Press Release.pdf
Description: DOGAMI Landslide Press Release.pdf

[Klamath County Fire Defense Board] FW: NWS Medford Briefing Update: Slight Chance of Severe Thunderstorms Friday

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