[AZ-Observing] Dry winter ahead
- From: Brian Skiff <bas@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 21 Sep 2007 18:37:56 -0700 (MST)
The climatological forecasts issued by the NWS this week
indicate a dry winter for the Southwest US. This is mainly due to
developing La Nina conditions in the Pacific. The generic maps,
which are run out 14 months in advance, are here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.html
(click on individual maps for details)
.....and the associated yak-yak, mainly dealing with sea surface
temperatures, is here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html
The temperature maps are losing usefulness since they are scaled
to the 1971-2000 averages---and the warming is happening fast enough
now that there is practically no such thing as below average
temperatures in the climatological sense. (Good thing they're not
using the entire 1890-2000 dataset as the reference.)
\Brian
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