[AZ-Observing] Re: Dry winter ahead

Brian, we are certainly looking forward to some clear
dry nights up here in Payson, we got 5.71 inches in
our rain gauge for the monsoon this year.  Thanks so
much for the encouraging news!

Chris
--- Brian Skiff <bas@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>      The climatological forecasts issued by the NWS
> this week
> indicate a dry winter for the Southwest US.  This is
> mainly due to
> developing La Nina conditions in the Pacific.  The
> generic maps,
> which are run out 14 months in advance, are here:
> 
>
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.html
> 
> (click on individual maps for details)
> 
> .....and the associated yak-yak, mainly dealing with
> sea surface
> temperatures, is here:
> 
>
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html
> 
> 
> The temperature maps are losing usefulness since
> they are scaled 
> to the 1971-2000 averages---and the warming is
> happening fast enough
> now that there is practically no such thing as below
> average
> temperatures in the climatological sense.  (Good
> thing they're not
> using the entire 1890-2000 dataset as the
> reference.)
> 
> 
> \Brian
> --
> See message header for info on list archives or
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> 
> 



      
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