Support for our decision to hold BP:
Brokers' recommendations
BP received a vote of confidence from analysts at Credit Suisse, who upgraded
the company to "outperform" and now prefer it to Total, its French rival, which
they downgraded to "neutral". BP is "adopting a strategy of shrinking the
traditional business earlier with ambitious new-energies targets", they told
clients. Shell and Total, in contrast, are "likely looking to sustain the
traditional business in the 2020s while scaling up low-carbon investments”.
Nick Gallop
+44 (0)7867 808 872
nick.gallop on Skype
Begin forwarded message:
From: Times Business Briefing <noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Sharp fall in payroll numbers
Date: 15 September 2020 at 07:58:26 BST
To: nsgallop@xxxxxxxxx
Reply-To: noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
View in your browser
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TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 15 2020
BY RICHARD FLETCHER
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Good morning: The number of employees on payrolls in August was down around
695,000 compared with March 2020, data from the Office for National
Statistics reveals this morning.
Nevertheless, the headline unemployment rate in the three months to July
remained close to historic lows at 4.1 per cent — up from 3.9 per cent — as
the job retention scheme continued to mask the hit to the labour market from
the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent lockdown and social distancing
measures.
With the furlough scheme closing at the end of October, the ONS report
provides further evidence of the looming crisis. Alongside the dramatic fall
in number of people on payrolls, the ONS reports:
The number of people who are estimated to be temporarily away from work
(including furloughed workers) has fallen but was still more than 5 million
in July, with more than 2.5 million of these being away for three months or
more.
Weekly hours worked remained depressed at 186 million lower than the
pre-pandemic high but rose 17 million between June and July. Average weekly
earnings fell 1 per cent between May and July. We'll have a story from Philip
Aldrick, our economics editor, shortly on www.thetimes.co.uk/business
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=33&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>In
a brief trading update Ocado has reported that retail revenue rose by a
better-than-expected 52 per cent to £587.3 million in the 13 weeks to the end
of August. Average orders per week rose 9.6 per cent to 345,000. The online
retailer (and wannabe technology company) has been one of the lockdown
winners. Shares in the company have risen 77 per cent since the start of the
year, the second best performance in the FTSE 100 after gold miner Fresnillo.
They look set to rise even further when trading resumes sortly, with Ocado
raising full-year ebitda forecasts to "at least £40 million", up from £26
million.
Alongside the trading update, Ocado reported that "customers have responded
positively to the switchover to M&S products on September 1, with demand for
the new range driving both an increase in the number of products in customer
baskets and strong forward demand".
We'll have a story shortly from Ashley Armstrong, our retail editor, on
thetimes.co.uk/business
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=22&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>.
Elsewhere this morning:
In advance of its annual general meeting, the FTSE 250 bus and train operator
First Group has said that it is encouraged by "significant interest" from
potential buyers for the group's American bus business, which runs yellow
school bus services in the United States and Canada and owns Greyhound.
The Competition and Markets Authority said that it was investigating the
outsourcer Mitie Group's bid to buy rival Interserve's support services arm.
Others updating this morning include the defence group Chemring, the paving
company Marshalls and Polypipe, the maker of plastic pipes and drains.
Please do keep sending your thoughts, observations (and corrections) to me at
richard.fletcher@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @fletcherr
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And finally, tune in to Times Radio at 7.50ish to hear me talk through the
morning's business news with Aasmah Mir and Stig Abell and at 4.35pm to talk
through the day's market action with John Pienaar. Listen online
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=19&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>,
on DAB radio, your smart speaker or via the Times Radio app.
Stay safe,
Richard
Richard Fletcher
Business Editor
richard.fletcher@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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@fletcherr
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Ten things you need to know
1 Boris Johnson accused Brussels of putting a "revolver on the table"
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last night as he fought to quell a rebellion from the government benches
against a bill that ministers have admitted breaks international law. Simon
Coveney, Ireland's foreign minister, has said that a trade deal between
Britain and the European Union is still possible
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and that the threat by Boris Johnson's government to suspend key elements of
the Northern Ireland protocol in the withdrawal treaty is a negotiating
tactic.
2 Hundreds of millions of cider apples will be left to rot
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as farmers and drinks makers try to recover from the impact of coronavirus.
Since lockdown, cider consumption has fallen heavily, with Britons drinking
more than half a million fewer litres a week, according to Nielsen, the
market research company.
3 G4S, the world's largest security firm,
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=6&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
has come under a hostile takeover attack from Gardaworld, a much smaller
rival. The Canadian multinational, controlled by BC Partners, the private
equity firm, has made an all-cash £2.96 billion offer for G4S, having had
three approaches in the summer rebuffed.
4 TikTok's fate in America is closer to being decided
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=3&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
after its Chinese owners submitted a proposal to the Trump administration
that involves partnering with Oracle, the software provider. Bytedance, the
owner of TikTok, rejected a bid for its US operations from Microsoft and went
for the underdog.
5 The workforce of Arm Holdings
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=35&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
will receive windfalls averaging £176,000 after the $40 billion sale of the
chip designer to Nvidia, of the United States, is completed.
6 Nikola, the electric lorry maker,
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has admitted filming one of its lorries rolling downhill without an engine
two years ago in a marketing video, as Hindenburg Research, an American
short-seller, claimed last week.
7 A vote today on a vital restructuring for New Look is on a knife-edge as a
host of the fashion retailer's biggest landlords plan to object to the
proposals
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=10&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>.
8 BP has joined calls to bring forward a ban on sales of new petrol and
diesel cars
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in Britain. The company said that the ban "can, and should, be brought in
sooner than 2040", which is the present target.
9 According to Personal Group, a specialist insurer,
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=12&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
the focus on key workers, plus the value now being put on health and
welfare, is likely to prompt companies to offer benefits to workers on lower
pay and even to those on temporary contracts.
10 Abcam
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=48&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>,
a British biotechnology company, is to press ahead with its five-year growth
plan, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, and has confirmed that it is scrapping
its final dividend.Technol
Market snap
The Nikkei closed down 0.49 per cent this morning at 23,444.05. At the midday
break, the Shanghai Composite was trading up 0.28 per cent at 3,288.07
points. The FTSE 100 is forecast to open 10 points lower.
At 6.44 am the pound was trading at $1.286 against the dollar and at €1.081
against the euro. Brent crude was trading at $39.49 a barrel, down 0.30 per
cent over the session. Gold was trading at $1,967.83 an ounce, up 0.59 per
cent. The yield on the UK's benchmark 10-year gilt is 0.19 per cent.
Wall Street ended sharply higher on Monday as a spurt of multibillion-dollar
deals lifted investor optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 327.69
points, or 1.18 per cent, to 27,993.33, the S&P 500 gained 42.57 points, or
1.27 per cent, to 3,383.54 and the Nasdaq added 203.11 points, or 1.87 per
cent, to 11,056.65.
The FTSE 100 closed down 5.84 points, or 0.1 per cent, at 6,026.25 last
night. The FTSE 250 had a better day, advancing 121.39 points, or 0.69 per
cent, to 17,677.26. Callum Jones' market report
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=28&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
has more on yesterday's market movers.
Yesterday's biggest FTSE movers
International Airlines Group (+4.5%) Ticks higher following turbulent summer
Ocado Group (+3.9%) Bank of America raises price objective from £22.30 to
£34.60
Compass Group (+3.1%) Climbs to highest closing level in three months
BP (-1.9%) Outlines stark impact of Covid-19 on oil demand
Fresnillo (-3.6%) Mining sector heavyweights come under pressure
Polymetal International (-3.8%) Metal producers slip lower
Brokers' recommendations
BP received a vote of confidence from analysts at Credit Suisse, who upgraded
the company to "outperform" and now prefer it to Total, its French rival,
which they downgraded to "neutral". BP is "adopting a strategy of shrinking
the traditional business earlier with ambitious new-energies targets", they
told clients. Shell and Total, in contrast, are "likely looking to sustain
the traditional business in the 2020s while scaling up low-carbon
investments".
Peel Hunt lifted its earnings forecasts for OneSavings Bank, the Kent-based
specialist in mortgages for buy-to-let landlords and small businesses, citing
"sympathy with better-than-expected asset volumes". The broker reiterated its
"hold" rating but lifted its target from 264p to 290p.
Tempus
The new boss of Aviva is putting her money where her mouth is. The FTSE 100
insurer disclosed yesterday that Amanda Blanc, who said last month that she
believed that "we have many of the ingredients to make Aviva a winner", had
bought £1 million of shares in the company in her first purchase since
becoming chief executive in July. Should investors follow her lead?
The challenges that have faced the Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust
in the past couple of years are clear for all to see. Its financial year runs
to June 30, so its 2019 results were affected by the sell-off in stock
markets near the end of 2018; this year's results, published last week, took
into account the initial impact of Covid-19. The resulting two years of
negative absolute returns could be a cause for concern for some investors,
perhaps, but look a little deeper and the trust has comfortably outperformed
its benchmark. Read
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=25&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
the Tempus share tips in full.
Editor's picks
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Property market boom or Lloyds' Bank shares bust — which, if either, is
right?
PATRICK HOSKING – FINANCIAL EDITOR
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Nvidia's position is really not so bad
ALISTAIR OSBORNE – CHIEF BUSINESS COMMENTATOR
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The mafia can teach the prime minister a thing or two about social
capital
PHILIP ALDRICK – ECONOMICS EDITOR
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Tory MPs are pressing for another U‑turn
RACHEL SYLVESTER – POLITICAL COLUMNIST
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The big read
"At the time of the Softbank acquisition Nvidia was worth roughly the same as
Arm, but their fortunes have diverged. Under Softbank's ownership, Arm's
annual revenues have grown from $1.2 billion to $1.9 billion and investment
in future development has wiped out profits. Over the same timeframe,
Nvidia's revenues have trebled and it is valued at $320 billion with profits
soaring."
For the second time in its recent history, uncertainty hangs over the
champion of Britain's technology industry, reports Simon Duke.
Read the full story
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Elsewhere in The Times
"At their hotel in the Isére, the Team Ineos riders and support staff would
have found it a long second rest day. For the previous five years they had
come to this point in the Tour knowing the race was theirs to win. Now they
were out of contention. In only 14 months, the greatest team in the sport had
become the Tour's most notable underachiever."
Sir Dave Brailsford must accept responsibility for the way in which his
riders have been convincingly outperformed, argues David Walsh.
Read the full story
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The day's front pages
The Times
G4S, the world's largest security company, has come under a hostile takeover
attack from Gardaworld, a much smaller Canadian rival.
Employees at Arm Holdings will receive windfalls averaging £176,000 after the
sale of the chip designer to Nvidia.
TikTok's Chinese owners have submitted proposals to the Trump administration
for a partnership with Oracle in an attempt to prevent it being banned in the
United States.
Nikola, the American maker of electric lorries whose business was described
by the hedge fund Hindenburg Research last week as "a $20 billion cloud of
smoke", has admitted to filming one of its trucks rolling downhill in a
marketing video.
Boris Johnson saw off a threat to his political authority last night after
former cabinet ministers led an attempted parliamentary revolt against him.
No coronavirus tests are available in the country's ten worst hotspots for
the disease, with shortages likely to continue for weeks.
Evidence that alien life might exist in the atmosphere above Venus has been
discovered by astronomers.
Read the full update
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=17&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
Financial Times
Donald Trump's administration is to review the "technical partnership" struck
between Oracle and ByteDance, the Chinese owner of TikTok, before deciding
whether to approve the deal.
The wildfires ravaging the states of California, Oregon and Washington have
propelled climate change into the spotlight of the presidential contest
between Joe Biden and incumbent Donald Trump.
Read the full update
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=15&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
The Daily Telegraph
Nvidia's blockbuster takeover of UK chip designer Arm was facing growing
opposition last night after Downing Street announced plans to investigate the
deal amid calls for it to be blocked by the company's founder and other
industry heavyweights. There were also signs that the Chinese government was
examining the implications of the deal.
UBS chairman Axel Weber is weighing up the viability of a blockbuster tie-up
with the bank's rival Credit Suisse in a pairing former executives say could
be complicated by "people politics".
British hopes of attracting TikTok's global HQ to London were cast in doubt
last night after Donald Trump's government said the social media company had
promised to invest heavily in the US to secure backing for a tie-up with
Californian tech giant Oracle.
A desire for space after lockdown is driving "a race to suburbia" in the
rental market as tenants rush to upsize, new research shows.
Read the full update
<http://links.mailingeditorialbulletins.thetimes.co.uk/ctt?ms=MTA1MjczMjIS1&kn=42&r=MjY1NDU1MzYwNDYS1&b=0&j=MTU5MTM4NjI2NgS2&mt=1&rt=0>
The Sun
Domino's Pizza has vowed to create 5,000 jobs as it benefits from families
turning to deliveries during lockdown.
London City airport is cutting more than a third of its workers as part of
"crucial restructuring".
Vodafone will pocket £1.9billion from the sale of its Egypt business.
Tim Martin, boss of pub giant Wetherspoons, has hit back at claims that pubs
are dangerous places in the pandemic.
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