[wisb] Wisconsin's Whooper Swan

From: Jerry DeBoer <jerry937975@xxxxxxx>
To: wisbirdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2013 16:27:11 -0500
As a member of the Records Committee, we will be tasked with making a 
decision concerning the Whooper Swan that's been seen and enjoyed by 
many for nearly a week in mid-state. Having seen a few of the on-going 
discussions, I thought I'd pitch in with my two cents. Let me first list 
a few of the assumptions that the Records Committee will NOT make:
·Probability of it being wild is 51% and therefore it can be counted as 
a wild bird and ticked off by the masses. It's not an election.

·If it were a wild bird, it could have flown here from Siberia, but if 
it or its wellspring or its wellsprings wellspring had ever been in 
captivity, the bird must have originated locally.

·The bird was not pinioned and all its toes were intact, thus reducing 
the probability of escapee/released to near zero.

That being said the decision will be reached by a thorough evaluation of 
known records of Whooper Swan, particularly those records that 
demonstrate its patterns of geographical vagrancy as well as the 
seasonal distribution of those vagrants. We will consider what factors 
may have contributed to this unprecedented extension of its vagrancy 
patterns both geographically and seasonally. For example, just as a 
strong hurricane or tropical storm slamming into the coastal areas of 
the southeast U.S. increases the likelihood of a Frigatebird observation 
in Wisconsin, what weather (or any other) factor may have influenced 
this visit by a Whooper Swan?

Ultimately, we will discuss probability and if the committee cannot lean 
with an extremely high degree of confidence that this was indeed a wild 
bird, it will not be accepted as such. Lastly, I'll say this...having 
considered many of the factors already, I'm not running up to see this bird.

-- 
Thanks
Jerry DeBoer
Franksville, WI
www.wildriversgalleries.com



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[wisb] Wisconsin's Whooper Swan

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