Hello fellow Wisbirdn-ers!
I did some research on this subject, too. I've been reading what people have
written here and elsewhere, but I had a few questions I wasn't able to answer
for myself, so I felt compelled to study this further. I'm hoping I'm not the
one person that gets the subject banned on this list for going on at length!
:-) I don't THINK I've bent or broken the rules, but if I have, I apologize and
willingly present myself for wet noodle-lashing.
Before I share a portion of what I found, please keep in mind, I have not drawn
any real conclusions, I have only gathered data that may or may not figure in
to this incident. I'm just looking for answers and wondering about the
possibilities like anyone, and frankly, I don't think I have any answers yet,
just more questions.
I just think that if all the people that care about this were to put their
noggins together, maybe someone will get an a-HA moment!
The first and most obvious question is of course, what caused it? It's
imperative that someone finds an answer.
Numerous theories have been proposed, too many to include here, and easily
findable in the articles. Many suspect low-flying aircraft, and that remains a
distinct possibility, while other possibilities have been more or less
eliminated through preliminary testing.
The only problem I have with the 'aircraft' theory, is the unlikelihood that
only one of the 13 islands in the Cedar Keys was affected by a flyover. It's
not a vast area, and to nail just one island is kinda like threading a needle
with intent and purpose, one would need to target just that island. Logic flies
in the face of that, but it's surely not impossible.
One theory I chased for a while had to do with the 2010 BP oil spill. There are
many articles out there that expound ongoing, still-spreading damage to area
wildlife even 5 years later. Again, I'd be at a loss to explain why only one
island would have been impacted in this way, if it played a role.
At the time of the 1929 designation of Cedar Keys' 13 islands as a Wildlife
Refuge, the reported 100,000+ birds on Seahorse Key have since dwindled to the
current expected (roughly) 20,000. I have yet to find an explanation for this
PREVIOUS dramatic loss over time. That in and of itself could possibly provide
some clues, but I'm sure much can be traced to a dirty environment..
Cedar Keys got that designation to protect the nesting birds from human
predation for the sale of their plumes, which was said to have dropped the
population at an alarming rate. Did that predation continue unabated even after
the designation?
I wonder if the boat tours to this and the other nearby islands played a part
at all?
And how well has this ban on public access to Seahorse Key during nesting
season been enforced and/or monitored? That's a HUGE question.
MOST of the articles, though, focus on the premise that this was a sudden
event, taking place in a matter of a day or days, during a time when public
access to the island is banned.
There's no shortage of conspiracy theories out there, either, I assure all of
you! :-)
But in all cases, I have not found specifics that exactly establishes the
initial timeline. I am not understanding the lack of precision and consistency
in the reporting.
One main theory I tried to explore, was whether there had been any seismic
activity in that vicinity. Florida turns out to be one of the LEAST frequent
states to experience such things, but I wasn't ready to rule that out just yet.
I sought out seismic history maps in the area during the time spans mentioned,
and basically came up empty, but these records online generally report strong
activity, usually quakes of a magnitude more than 3. What I found, I consider
inconclusive, so I am exploring that further.
There were major earthquakes in that time span, but too far away. From there I
went on to trying to think of comparable ways man can mimic low-level seismic
activity.
And I had another nagging question. If this happened some time ago, why is the
news just reaching us as of July 7, 2015? So I thought I'd try and establish a
definitive date of when this actually took place.
Sources conflicted, but the earliest established date for the 'event' was the
3rd week in April. Some accounts say on or about April 20, others stated that
it occurred in May. So far, the earliest online mention of it I could find
online was a USFWS press release on May 13th, which was the first to mention
specifically the third week in April. http://bit.ly/1I8FhCU
When a mystery such as this occurs, you normally want to get the word out
immediately, because valuable data can be lost with the passage of every hour,
every day. I was unable to find specific dates where US Fish & Wildlfie began
exploring Seahorse Key and taking test samples. It appears that by the time of
the first 'official' press release, the incident and initial surveys/tests of
the island apparently had already taken place.
One detail not mentioned in later articles, was the lackluster return of the
white ibis. Quoting the above press release, "Recently, the colony has
experienced significant changes. First, the white ibis, normally the most
numerous nesting bird in the colony, did not return to the colony in
significant numbers this season to nest. White ibis can be nomadic nesters, and
can switch to distant locations in large numbers. Yet their numbers had been
stable at Seahorse Key for decades."
A possible problem may have already been afoot before this event? I find the
omission of that in later articles to be a glaring one, but I don't discount
that the 2 are related in some way.
Initially, this mass exodus had purportedly been first noticed by a caretaker
at Seahorse Key. Again, I am not understanding why this wasn't publicized even
sooner than May 13th. And why it took another round of 'announcements' in July
to finally catch fire, baffles me. Additionally, the earliest photos from
official sources I could find from SK this year, were taken in June. Wouldn't
the locals or USFWS have visually documented such an enormous event from day
one? Maybe they just didn't like to share.
But putting that to the side for now, in my endeavors, I added the April 20
date to my search string, and I found an interesting letter that happened to
have been written on that date. This comes from the Florida Dept Of
Environmental Protection, addressed to a Mr. Johnson of the Bureau of Ocean
Energy Management (or BOEM as it's often referred to), Gulf of Mexico Energy
Management. Effectively, this was a letter opposing "G&G Activities"
(Geological and Geophysical) permits being sought that include Florida, for the
purpose of finding likely places for off-shore drilling. The letter expresses
concern about the impact of G&G on marine life, primarily, and this is a hotly
debated issue between the government, who claim it is safe for wildlife, and
wildlife researchers who maintain more research needs to be done before coming
to that conclusion.
"G&G Activities" was a new term to me, so I looked to see what that entailed.
Among other things, a main item involved is 'seismic testing'. Seismic testing
is described in a related article written on April 27th: "Companies will do the
tests with compressed air guns that blast as loud as a howitzer under the sea,
repeated every 10 seconds or so for weeks at a time. The echoes are used to
produce maps that help company geologists figure out whether sub-sea rock
formations are likely to contain fossil fuels worth drilling."
http://bit.ly/1HDCuME
This might not figure in at all, but it opens up other possibilities of a
man-caused event that could mimic seismic activity, or even the possibility
that some oil company was trying to beat the clock on an anticipated possible
ban on their explorations?
I'm still researching, but just from what I've found thus far, I do think
there's more than meets the eye, here. And one of my suspicions is that the
story is getting used, crafted and manipulated over time for a purpose, perhaps
to create a 'public outcry' scenario that may help prevent G&G permits. And
maybe the first attempts to promote the subject matter didn't get picked up by
the bigger media outlets and a more concerted effort was made in July? Whomever
would do such a thing, bravo! But nonetheless, I would not want to be deceived
by what is being presented as fact, because anyone that finds these
inconsistencies might consider the actual facts suspect.
In this Orlando Sentinel article: http://bit.ly/1gFv44Q you find this statement:
"Mike O'Dell runs tours out of the little marina in nearby Cedar Key. He said
on a Tuesday in May he led a group out to view thousands of birds crowding the
shores of the key. On Wednesday, there was nothing."
Hmmmmmm, ok, then the birds left, came back, and then left again? See USFWS'
May 13th press release!
The mismatched data between reports hampers establishing a firm timeline, which
is disappointing. Maybe the media outlets are partly responsible for that, but
short of writing to all the people who submitted articles, it's hard to know
how those facts got changed.
Like any line of research, the answers to questions are elusive, and most often
generate more questions. I still have many.
But if I draw anything from this collection, it would be that there are odd
elements here that deserve closer inspection. And I can't help but think that
if USFWS had sought a public response sooner, maybe some other investigative
agencies could have helped search for more 'human' clues that now may no longer
exist. Missed opportunity? I sincerely hope not, but I don't see a reason to
have held information so close to the chest for ANY length of time. I'm sure
they must have had their reasons.
And what do we make of this factoid: "...the island is littered with eggs that
had been pecked but not crushed." http://bit.ly/1CH2JoI
One aspect I don't see mentioned anywhere, is whether anything could have
occurred to significantly disturb, infect or even poison the birds before
migrating from their winter homes. I fishtailed into that side-subject because
of wanting a theory that also encompasses the white ibis' absence. :-) As they
forage for food by strolling in shallow water, this also brings to mind
drifting possibilities from BP....
Since the bulk of the birds flew away to parts unknown, they can't be tested. A
few carcasses were found and tested and apparently findings were unremarkable.
I hope they were able to find and test one or some from the nearby Snake Key,
where it's said some of them escaped to.
Bottom line, lets hope the biologists can solve this mystery, because to lose a
generation of these magnificent species is already a tragedy, I'd hate to have
anyone drop the ball on trying to discover/understand and prevent whatever DID
happen.
I do know this much. When mallards wander up from the city pond into our back
yard, all it takes is the low rumble and vibrations of a large truck driving by
in front of the house to send them off flying in a panic. Whatever did happen
on Seahorse Key, if it indeed was all in one day, a true simultaneous,
multi-species flight, it makes me think it would have to have been accompanied
by a somewhat extended noise event that was loud enough and went deep enough
for the birds to feel vibrations from it.
Nest regards-
Gloria Shiraef
Manitowoc City and County
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