[The-L] Re: What's in your future?

From: Lawrence Pruyne <docpruyne@xxxxxxxxx>
To: WarwickList@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2017 20:36:27 -0500

A "musing" like this can be amusing to read,
                              and see how people think.
It is even a "mazing",
                         some may think,
                                though I for one
                                       can't get lost in it.
                      I think there is some thing
a "miss" here,
                        though it may not be a single girl.
A "mousing", however, may be amiss,
                    but not amusing or amazing,
                     especially to a mouse,
                          being a mouse hunt.
                               No, no, not amusing at all.
A "moosing", however, is not a moose hunt,
                  it's just a mis-spelled word.
A "mousseing"
                            is what the kids get

at the hairdressers.

And lo and behold,

a "massing" is what birds do

before a migration.

Wouldn't it be amazing,
and not in the least amiss,
if we all amassed
for a mousseing
before reading
an amusing
musing on the L?

(Oh jeez, Ethel, call the EMTs. He's gone off the deep end!)

On Mon, Jan 16, 2017 at 6:19 PM, Nick1 <narguimbau@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

In other words, assuming that the Limits to Growth (so far its 1970
predictions are being followed like clockwork) is pure bunk, thenby the end
of the century we'll have 11 billion people with nothing to do.  Presumably
assuming folks haven't changed too much in the interim, they'll engage
mostly in sex, drugs and starvation.to kill time.  I'm not sure your
cousin is right about the end of cars, because their being unnecessary has
never stopped anyone from having them.  Just look at all the highways
jammed with empty 5-passenger cars.  People have always been persuaded they
are necessary despite all indications to the contrary.  Except for a small
amount of driving sufficient to qualify for a license I never used so when
I went in to renew it I was given the red carpet treatment for having a
perfect driving record.  I has saved me about $400,000 (no mistakes in the
decimal pointminus $150 now and then for a cab ride to or from the
wilderness.  Since there has never been a conceivable reason for having a
5-seater to commute or do errands or go to the movies, there's no reason to
suppose that "need" will play any role in the future either.  He misses
something about third-world economics, too.Someone who is worth zero, which
he appears to say will be virtually all of us by the end of the century, is
also going to get paid zero, and paying $100 for a machine that will do
everything is an extravagance people withdollar-a-day (tops) incomes aren't
going to engage in..  People starved during the African drought not for
lack of corn in the world, but because American farmers were selling their
corn to fuel all the 5-seaters, and Africans couldn't compete in the
market  to fuel themselves.

And I think what your cousin says about law and lawyers is wrong.I went to
law school more than 40 years ago and the computer tools were available
then but.
I never lacked for work.  People have always gone to law school so they
can qualify for "licenses to practice law," not to learn law per se.  Law
is a public utility and is regulated like one.  When thre are too many
lawyers the bar exams (which by the way don't remotely test whether you
know how to be a lawyer) are made harder to pass - the passage rate on the
California bar exam was only 40% overall and onlyabout 75% for the top law
schools in 1975 (spend 3 years full time in a good school and still end up
with a 25% chance of getting nothing for the effort?), so at that rate if
you passed the exam you were pretty much assured work.  And if you go to
work for one of the major corporate law firms you ewill be richly rewarded
for inventing scams, something computers don't teach you.

And i don't know what's going to happen to education. "Liberal arts"
already seems to be disappearing.  Do you learn history in a world that
changes so fast that there isn'y any history?  Do you learn English when a
computer will correct you if you don't know how to write?  Do you learn
math when computers do it better and faster?  Well that last is a story.
My last article, about albedo warming and the end of the arctic, requires a
little calculus, it seems that's something no one knows any more which
maybe is why i'm ahead of the game.  I lost a decades-long argument with
a friend who got a graduate degree in systems analysis at the University of
California and is now a hotshot analyst at the California Energy Commission
about whether he should learn calculus.  He finally asked his UC faculty
advisor, who sad nno because it's all done with spreadsheets now..  Lord
help us!  Calculus is a way of thinking.  Spreadsheets are a way of not
thinking.

Oh well, your cousin's vision of a world in which everyonewill have
everything the could ever desire without working, is an alternative to the
peak-food-and-population-is- in- 2030 vision.  Alternative visions are
healthy.because they force us to think in a world in which computers even
do thinking better.

Nick

PS.  The real reason I have doubts about hitech is that it is pushing
wildflowers out of the way.  But here's a photo it would be really
diffeicult to get without the aid of a digital camera and a computer.

----- Original Message -----

*From:* Lawrence Pruyne <docpruyne@xxxxxxxxx>
*To:* WarwickList@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
*Sent:* Monday, January 16, 2017 12:14 AM
*Subject:* [The-L] What's in your future?

Received an interesting email from my cousin, who ran a high-tech company
for 30 years.

*What's in Your Future????*

The Future?
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.  All medical X-rays used Kodak film. Camera's, both
commercial and industrial,  security camera's- imaging of all sorts.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of
industries in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures
on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had
10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential
technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it
became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It
will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and
electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they
don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player
in the world; 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM
Watson, you can get legal advice (only for basic stuff, so far)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.  So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90%
less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate
than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software
that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will
become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for
the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will
never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for
that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million
people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one
accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that
will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will
save a million lives each year.
This will increase world over growth and populations.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car
companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,
while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will
become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an
exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning
coming impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't
last.
Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of
salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We
don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean
water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are
companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from
Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan,
your blood sample and you breath into it.

It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have
access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
Goodbye, medical establishment and their absurd medical fees.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times
faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing
shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the
large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoe at home. Amazing things are coming fast.

Only the systems for paying for these capabilities remain to be defined.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office
building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D
printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.

And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to
failure in the 21st century.

And here's the clincher---Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the
next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if
there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field
instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced
veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in
2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market
shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as
"alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the
idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood
you're in.  By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency. Of the world.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per
year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80
years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be
more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long
long time, probably way more than 100.
But over population will create severe food problems.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and
Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means,
everyone has the same access to instant world class education.

The United States of America will most likely fall to a second world
status country due to liberal voting policies.
China will become the primary power of the world.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at
school in First World countries. We have already released our software
in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this
Summer, because I see an enormous potential.
We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can
become fluent in English within half a year.

Those of you under 65 today will experience most of these.

References:
- [The-L] What's in your future?
  - From: Lawrence Pruyne
- [The-L] Re: What's in your future?
  - From: Nick1

[The-L] Re: What's in your future?

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