Oh, and by the way, your friends are wrong. Eric
________________________________
From: uupretirees-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> on
behalf of Eric Russell <ericprussell@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 9, 2021 11:20 AM
To: uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [uupretirees] Re: Fwd: The trade war and why it is a mistake
No, I did not miss the point. Our largest export to China has been air for
many years, along with empty cargo containers. One of the reasons for this
balance advantaging China is that we have been "sharing" [read: giving away]
our trade and manufacturing secrets as part of our global trade agreements.
Yes, both Republicans and Democrats have helped this along.
The bean counters have long understood that it is cheaper to offshore American
jobs than to allow our labor costs and safety regulations here to have an
effect on our manufacturing.
On the other hand, the EU, Japan and Korea seem to understand that it makes
sense to have true partnerships and make things here.
Unemployed people don't purchase large ticket items. Neither do checkout
kiosks or EZ Pass readers. A service economy, even though it does not produce
anything, keeps people employed. Our population needs to be more than clerks
and service people, though.
We were the leaders in technology and innovation, as well as manufacturing. We
can be again, even without putting up walls. We need investment in
infrastructure at all levels to become competitive again. Infrastructure is
more than roads, sewers and bridges.
I spoke with my Congressman on Tuesday. The next infrastructure bill will
include subsidies and loans for charging stations for electric
vehicles--including trucks. Yes, everything is interconnected. In order to
move forward, we have to invest in the future.
Eric
________________________________
From: uupretirees-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> on
behalf of hils. <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 9, 2021 10:40 AM
To: uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [uupretirees] Re: Fwd: The trade war and why it is a mistake
You seem to miss the point that they used to be filled with goods from his
country this country under Trump.
Bob Kasprak
==================================
-----Original Message-----
From: Eric Russell <ericprussell@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; crinum
<crinum@xxxxxxxx>; Simons, William <William.Simons@xxxxxxxxxxx>; Bill
Scheuerman <bscheuerm@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thu, Jul 8, 2021 9:17 pm
Subject: [uupretirees] Re: Fwd: The trade war and why it is a mistake
If you have taken the NJ Turnpike past Port Newark, you have seen piles to
empty containers. It does not generally pay to ship empty containers from the
East Coast back to China. There have been quite a few reports over the years
that the largest export from the US to China by volume has been cargo
containers of air.
Eric
________________________________
From: uupretirees-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> on
behalf of hils. <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 8, 2021 8:28 PM
To: uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [uupretirees] Fwd: The trade war and why it is a mistake
I have heard from friends in San Francisco that when Trump was President
container ships went back to China with loaded containers yet since Biden has
been President they are going back to China empty?
The US-China Trade War Is Still Happening – The
Diplomat<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fthediplomat.com%2F2021%2F03%2Fthe-us-china-trade-war-is-still-happening%2F&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585706297%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=vt1%2BQzAgiEQI%2BiDtcgfe%2F177eGTZ%2BSrboZTDZdjgpzE%3D&reserved=0>
Bon Kasprak
======================================
Increasing tariffs on things producers send to us simply means that the people
pay more for the same products. Telling manufacturers to make things at home
to compete with embargoed products means that we produce less. Computer chips
anyone? Have some dip with that. Eric
OPINION<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fsection%2Fopinion&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585716296%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=lqJGhVASjAwht3QX4DMMyC7HDQbRZA6hVv%2F%2FrZiBM4Y%3D&reserved=0>
PAUL KRUGMAN
The Trumpian Roots of the Chip Crisis
July 8, 2021, 7:00 p.m. ET
[https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/07/08/opinion/08krugman-lead/merlin_175317291_1c0ffd22-93a4-41d2-8088-b30baa88f2e6-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale]
[https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/07/08/opinion/08krugman-lead/merlin_175317291_1c0ffd22-93a4-41d2-8088-b30baa88f2e6-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale]
Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times
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[Paul
Krugman]<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fby%2Fpaul-krugman&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585746273%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=lhq8zlJcRJpnNu0KIxPNNxGNB5rxGZBnq2dD%2B0m4fwE%3D&reserved=0>
By Paul
Krugman<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fby%2Fpaul-krugman&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585746273%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=lhq8zlJcRJpnNu0KIxPNNxGNB5rxGZBnq2dD%2B0m4fwE%3D&reserved=0>
Opinion Columnist
What’s the current state of the U.S. economy? A quick summary might be “booming
with bottlenecks.”
And some of those bottlenecks reflect the mess created by Donald Trump’s trade
policy.
Where we are now:
Employment<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2021%2F07%2F05%2Fopinion%2Fjoe-biden-economy.html&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585756270%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=VNuelz109guV2Yfu0uyYoCuINwJ7zZPG%2BhczMg3K7YA%3D&reserved=0>
is growing at a rate we haven’t seen since 1984. So, probably, is gross
domestic
product<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.philadelphiafed.org%2Fsurveys-and-data%2Freal-time-data-research%2Fspf-q2-2021&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585766266%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=bYKnYwE5ERZf%2B8ZQunxT3ix0nDGzRtMhuERAsmqFzSg%3D&reserved=0>,
although we don’t yet have an official estimate for the second quarter. We
are, however, suffering from shortages of many items, which are crimping
production in some areas and leading to sharp price increases in others.
Some of these shortages are getting resolved. For example, two months ago,
lumber<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmarkets.businessinsider.com%2Fcommodities%2Flumber-price&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585766266%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=iDTDyTASa1TcBUkORHvviyXJjXsP7X9zpe1nzIXRYHI%3D&reserved=0>
cost almost four times as much as it did before the Covid-19 pandemic; since
then, its price has fallen more than 50 percent. Other bottlenecks, however,
seem more persistent. World trade is being held back by an inadequate supply of
standard-size shipping containers — the ubiquitous boxes that carry almost
everything, because they can be lifted directly from the decks of ships onto
railroad cars and truck beds — and experts
expect<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fqz.com%2F2027205%2Fa-shipping-container-shortage-is-snarling-global-trade%2F&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585776259%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=R4i1tOVYVWqG0HaP080Jgak%2FJxIWqQQt%2BO8oScgJvlM%3D&reserved=0>
the shortage to last at least until late this year.
And there’s another bottleneck that may be an even bigger deal than the
container shortage: a global shortage of semiconductor chips.
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You see, these days almost everything contains silicon chips. So an
insufficient supply of chips is a problem not just for producers of computers
and smartphones; there are chips in just about all durable goods, including
household appliances and, crucially, cars.
As a result, the chip shortage has had large and perhaps unexpected
ramifications. Lack of chips is limiting production of automobiles, leading
some people to buy used cars instead. And soaring used-car prices are a
surprisingly big contributor to inflation — in fact, they accounted for about a
third<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bls.gov%2Fnews.release%2Fcpi.nr0.htm&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585786258%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=s1pKnEC8tJC4EvkVa66IFhsTyCovpnaPMkjsXqBBJM8%3D&reserved=0>
of May’s total rise in consumer prices.
So why are we facing a semiconductor shortage? Part of the answer is that the
pandemic created a weird business cycle. People couldn’t go out to eat, so they
remodeled their kitchens, and they couldn’t go to the gym, so they bought
Pelotons. So demand for services is still depressed, while demand for
goods<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fpaulkrugman%2Fstatus%2F1412771406274863112&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585796252%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=p0xKOrCCeRQmBWRRhrW8mtnzOQZCcs5V%2BY%2FepH3%2F3d8%3D&reserved=0>
has soared. And as I said, practically every physical good now has a chip in
it.
But as Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics
documents in an important new
article<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignaffairs.com%2Farticles%2F2021-07-06%2Fmissing-chips&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585806249%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=7YJfHUMwLOFqiV9q3YPx4flD9zM0sqeseU2VP7YCDdk%3D&reserved=0>,
the Trump administration’s trade policy made the situation much worse.
When Trump took us into a trade war with China, there was clearly a lot he and
his advisers failed to understand about modern world trade. Among other things,
they didn’t seem to grasp that modern trade consists not of simple exchanges of
goods — they sell us cars, we sell them aircraft — but of complex supply
chains, in which the production of a given item often involves activities
spread across the globe.
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Michael Pollan Explores the Mind-Altering Plants in His Garden
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‘Legally Blonde’ Oral History: From Raunchy Script to Feminist Classic
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Given this reality, the structure of the Trump tariffs was, well, stupid: They
focused mainly on intermediate
inputs<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.piie.com%2Fblogs%2Ftrade-and-investment-policy-watch%2Ftrump-china-and-tariffs-soybeans-semiconductors&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585846222%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=57DIoOvZeYedpZ4J8BppIr7415MMfAAZwL4OBWfT08s%3D&reserved=0>
like semiconductors and capital equipment, which American companies need to
compete in the world market. As a result, multiple studies have found, the
tariffs actually
reduced<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.brookings.edu%2Fpodcast-episode%2Fhow-have-trumps-trade-wars-affected-rust-belt-jobs%2F&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585856218%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=7DZTufzlOFEPxXXJchuRAYaRjmRaO5j7ftZByZ40KNk%3D&reserved=0>
U.S. manufacturing employment.
But Trump’s trade policy wasn’t just poorly conceived. It was also erratic.
Nobody knew which products might face new tariffs or whether the tariffs he had
imposed would remain in place. And in high technology, especially
semiconductors, Trump began imposing export restrictions, again in an erratic
fashion (and with an apparent lack of awareness that, in many cases, China
could simply turn to other suppliers).
Paul Krugman’s Newsletter Get a better understanding of the economy — and an
even deeper look at what’s on Paul’s mind. Get it.
As I wrote at the
time<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2019%2F08%2F07%2Fopinion%2Ftariff-tantrums-and-recession-risks.html&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585856218%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=cjQmcRmAmAqwkBUkJ%2B7RP9UQ7VscOczSg%2B0lTE8o4I4%3D&reserved=0>,
the problem was less that Trump was a self-proclaimed Tariff Man than that he
was a capricious, unpredictable Tariff Man. And this messed up business
planning, especially in semiconductors.
Consider foreign producers selling into the U.S. market. Such producers had
little incentive to add capacity, because for all they knew, they might
suddenly face high tariffs. But U.S. producers also had little incentive to
invest, because for all they knew, the tariff protection they were relying on
might go away overnight — or they might abruptly find themselves barred from
selling into foreign markets.
Basically, international supply chains don’t work very well when the policies
of one of the world’s key economies are governed by the whims of a leader who
gets his ideas from cable TV.
Notice that I’m not being a free-trade purist here. There’s a good case for
interventionist government policy to ensure reliable supply chains — and the
Biden administration is moving in that
direction<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.whitehouse.gov%2Fbriefing-room%2Fstatements-releases%2F2021%2F06%2F08%2Ffact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-supply-chain-disruptions-task-force-to-address-short-term-supply-chain-discontinuities%2F&data=04%7C01%7C%7Cdfaca64fab914a28cd2c08d942ed2606%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637614408585866212%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=cLgrtaytOayXFjxDQVVCoKUc5iHGh532wkFaB2KX6vY%3D&reserved=0>.
It’s important, however, that this policy be designed by people who understand
the issues and that the rules of the game be clear enough to let businesses
plan.
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In other words, we need a policymaking style that’s the opposite of what we had
in the previous administration.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think bad policy is the main cause of the
bottlenecks we’re experiencing, nor do I believe that these bottlenecks will
prevent a rapid economic recovery. But Trump’s tantrum-based trade policy did
real damage, and we’re still paying the price.
