Stephens is one of the resident conservatives at the Times. Personally, I
disagree with his conclusions but he should be heard. Having said that, every
choice is a balance of desires. In this case, spending on infrastructure and
people vs. doing nothing and hoping we will recover without assistance. As the
choice eliminates the potential history of the road not taken, we will never
really know. Eric
OPINION<https://www.nytimes.com/section/opinion>
BRET STEPHENS
Biden’s Plan Promises Permanent Decline
May 3, 2021, 7:02 p.m. ET
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[Bret Stephens]<https://www.nytimes.com/by/bret-stephens>
By Bret Stephens<https://www.nytimes.com/by/bret-stephens>
Opinion Columnist
Years ago, Alexis Tsipras, the party leader of Greece’s Coalition of the
Radical Left, surprised me with a question. “Here in the United States,” the
soon-to-be prime minister asked me over breakfast in New York, “why do you not
have this phenomenon of passing money under the table?”
The subject was health care. Greece has a public health care system that, in
theory, guarantees its citizens access to necessary medical care.
Practice, however, is another matter. Patients in Greek public hospitals,
Tsipras explained, would first have to slip a doctor “an envelope with a
certain amount of money” before they could expect to get treatment. The
government, he added, underpaid its doctors and then looked the other way as
they topped up their income with bribes.
Take a close look at any country or locality in which the government offers
allegedly free or highly subsidized goods and you’ll usually discover that
there’s a catch.
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France’s subsidized day care is, by all accounts, fantastic for working parents
who get their children into it. Except there’s a perpetual shortage of
slots<https://theconversation.com/politique-educative-demmanuel-macron-ce-que-peut-en-dire-la-recherche-77379>.
In Sweden, a raft of laws protects tenants from excessively high rent. Except
wait times for apartments can be as long as 20
years<https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20160517-this-is-one-city-where-youll-never-find-a-home>.
In Britain, the National Health Service is a source of pride. Except that,
even before the pandemic, one in six patients faced wait times of more than 18
weeks for routine treatment.
These examples are worth bearing in mind as President Biden charts a course
toward the largest expansion of government since Lyndon Johnson’s Great
Society. After signing a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill in March and
proposing a $1.5 trillion discretionary budget in April (a 16 percent increase
from this year, on top of what’s likely to be at least $3 trillion in mandatory
spending on programs like Medicare and Medicaid), the president wants $2.3
trillion more for infrastructure and $1.8 trillion for new social programs.
That’s $7.5 trillion in discretionary spending. To put the number in
perspective, we spent $4.1 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars over nearly
four years to wage and win the Second World War.
What will America get for the money? The progressive bet is that it will be
things Americans like and want to keep, like universal pre-K and paid parental
leave. Progressives also bet Americans won’t mind that the Jeff Bezoses and
Elon Musks of the world will pay for all of it.
Maybe those bets will pay off. And conservatives would be foolish to dismiss
the sheer political appeal of the progressive pitch. But before the U.S. takes
this leap into a full-blown American social-welfare state, moderates in
Congress like Senator Joe Manchin or Representative Jim Costa ought to ask:
What’s the catch?
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It isn’t that the things Biden wants aren’t worth having. Many of them are. Nor
is the mammoth expense the main issue. Worthy things are often worth paying
for. And Republicans have as much credibility on the subject of deficit
spending as they do on matters of moral character in high office.
The real catch is that massive government spending has hidden costs that are
difficult to capture in numbers alone.
Take another look at Europe. Why does R&D spending in the European
Union<https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/R_%26_D_expenditure>
persistently lag that in the U.S., to say nothing of places like Japan and
South Korea? Perhaps it’s the same reason that European states cannot
adequately meet their defense
requirements<https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/19/world/europe/germany-nato-spending-target.html>:
Mandatory spending on social-welfare priorities tends to crowd out
discretionary spending.
Why does Europe’s tech start-up scene (with notable
exceptions<https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/business/biontech-covid-vaccine.html>)
so notably lag its
competitors<https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/europe-is-no-longer-an-innovation-leader-heres-how-it-can-get-ahead/>
in the U.S. and Asia? Perhaps it’s the same reason that Europe’s overall share
of the world economy has been continuously
shrinking<https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-on-the-wane-global-economics-demographics-gdp/>
despite decades of peace and economic integration: Big social safety nets
typically come at the expense of risk-taking and economic dynamism.
And why is France, which, according to the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, spends more on social welfare than any other
nation in the developed
world<https://data.oecd.org/socialexp/social-spending.htm>, such an unhappy
place, with chronically high
unemployment<https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/09/business/macron-unemployment-france.html>,
endless labor
unrest<https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/world/europe/france-strike-macron.html>,
a decades-old brain
drain<https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/22/world/europe/22iht-educSide22.html?_r=2>,
rising political
extremism<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-11/france-s-le-pen-gains-ground-for-2022-elections-poll-shows>,
a wealth tax that
failed<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/31/france-drops-75percent-supertax>
and a medical system that was on the brink of
collapse<https://www.france24.com/en/20190614-france-focus-hospitals-crisis-france-healthcare-emergency-workers-protest-strike>
long before Covid struck?
The answer is no doubt complex. But anyone making the claim that massive
government spending on social priorities will take us to the Happy Place needs
to address the French example with something other than glib references to joie
de vivre.
In his speech to Congress, the president described his jobs plan as a “once in
a generation investment in America itself.” Some of what he offers will be
popular with the public, and much of it will be popular with all the lobbies
that will benefit from opening spigots of public money.
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But investments like these, once made, are almost never reversed. The spending
will become permanent. Beyond the gargantuan cost, Congress should think very
hard about the real catch: transforming America into a kinder, gentler place of
permanent decline.
Related
More on Biden’s American Families Plan.
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/opinion/biden-family-aid.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article>
Opinion | Paul Krugman
Biden and the Future of the Family
May 3, 2021
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/opinion/biden-speech-child-care.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article>
Opinion | Michelle Goldberg
America Is Brutal to Parents. Biden Is Trying to Change That.
April 29, 2021
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Bret L. Stephens has been an Opinion columnist with The Times since April 2017.
He won a Pulitzer Prize for commentary at The Wall Street Journal in 2013 and
was previously editor in chief of The Jerusalem Post.
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