Tony --
The recent annotated checklist list 10/12 (2010, Lake County) as the
state early date, with 10/23 and 10/25 as the other regional early
dates. So it is near the state record early date, and a few days
before the early date for middle TN.
EBird can also be helpful to give context to unusual dates. The
statewide all-time bar graph for all of TN shows scattered records in
the last weeks of October, with regular reports beginning in early
November. To get more detail, you can pull up the range map for the
species in eBird and look at the larger region around TN. In general
there are October records well south of Tennessee. But if you look
specifically at the recent reports (last 30 days, the red markers on
the map), so far in 2015 there have been no reports in the
southeastern states yet this autumn. The southernmost reports are
from northern Missouri, northern Ohio, and northern New Jersey. So
there is no evidence of deep southern incursion yet this year.
Although all those southernmost records are just from the last few
days, so they may be starting to move!
It is your call based mostly on how confident you are in the
vocalizations you heard. The data suggest it is unlikely, and a very
conservative judgement is advisable, but in the bird world unlikely
things happen every day.
Bill Pulliam
Hohenwald TN
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