[texbirds] Coastal Weather/Migrant Forecast 3/22-3/28

From: John Tharp <jlt290@xxxxxxxxx>
To: Texbirds <texbirds@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sat, 22 Mar 2014 15:53:36 -0500
Since I spend many of my days as a meteorologist forecasting for the Gulf
of Mexico and Bay of Campeche I figured I'd start sharing some of the info
as we roll into spring migration since the weather can make or break
coastal birding this time of year. If this proves useful I'll try to do
this on a weekly or bi-weekly basis with a focus on the central and upper
Texas Coast. Obviously there is plenty of opportunity for me to look
foolish since I'm trying to forecast weather and birds, two things which
never seem to go as planned. John Arvin's day to day radar updates will
probably prove of more short term use on a day to day basis.
Coastal/Gulf Weather through Friday:
Moderate S-SE winds will continue across the Gulf through tonight with
plenty of nearshore Fog. A strong cold front will reach the upper coast
Sunday morning and then move slowly S through the day. Extending from
Pensacola to Brownsville by late afternoon. Strong NE winds and scattered
showers (especially over the waters) will be expected in the wake of the
front. Fresh NE winds will then continue across the northern Gulf through
Monday with intervals of showers.
A second strong cold front will then move offshore Mon Night-Early Tuesday
with enhanced northerly winds across the entire Gulf. Those strong
northerlies will turn east Wed morning and then SE by Wed PM. Strong SE
winds are then expected Wed PM through Thursday. The next front will then
roll in for Friday.

Coastal "Bird Forecast":
Obviously we are just getting started on migration so the threat of
"fallout" type conditions is much lower than it is later in the year. The
above forecast tends to favor a trickle of migrants showing at the coast
today through early tomorrow. The front tomorrow PM may allow for some
modest increase in coastal arrivals dropping in by evening. The coastal
migrant traps probably have a good chance for increased diversity and
numbers Mon-Wed AM (mostly those Sun-Mon arrivals that get stuck here) with
the northerly winds and generally unsettled weather over the northern Gulf.
Those numbers will then quickly thin out Wed PM and Thu as enthusiastic SE
winds cover much of the Gulf. However diversity will continue to increase
due to the time of year. The next front, Friday, promises a break in the SE
winds and perhaps more migrants along the coast.

Feel free to let me know if any of this info ends up being right or wrong
in your area.

John Tharp
Houston, TX


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[texbirds] Coastal Weather/Migrant Forecast 3/22-3/28

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