Re: Projecting resource requirements
- From: Mladen Gogala <mgogala@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: dnt9000@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 17:48:15 -0500
David Turner wrote:
>Can anyone point me to some documents on calculating
>resource requirements for a project? I'm ok with disk
>consumption but cpu and memory seem harder to project.
>
>
>
My favorite projection reads "it'll be OK.". The person who must make
predictions is in a very
tricky position. I'll offer you two tales about predicting:
1) Pythias, an early leader in executive decision systems and a
claimant of the "Oracle" trademark,
was asked to predict how will king's son fare off in a war. The
answer was, translated to
English:
"You will return not get killed. "
The meaning of the prediction depends on the missing comma. Such
prediction were given while Pythias
was high on laurel leaves. They used term: "Said Quixotically on
Laurel" or SQL for short.
2) A new, ultra-modern weather forecasting center was built high in the
Rockies, just above a native American village.
The tribe in the village had a shaman who, when asked to predict the
winter, blurted out that the winter is going to be
very harsh, just to be on the safe side. It was better to have too
much firewood and food then too little. Consequently,
the braves started to accumulate firewood and food in extremely
large quantities. Our shaman was very curious about
the accuracy of his forecast, so he decided to make the trip up the
cliff and visit the weather center. He was received by
the head scientist who told him that the winter is going to be harsh,
very harsh. When asked how does he know, the response
was: man, are you nuts? Look at the Indians down in the valley and
how much firewood did they accumulate!
These two stories sum up the fine art of making predictions. In essence,
you'll have to learn how to sell snake oil to
your management. You can never have too much CPU power or too much
memory. I hope that I did convey my
message across? Allegedly, the same strategy was adopted by capacity
planning software. This is also meant to
help Jared on his new job, where making predictions will be a
significant part of his new job. Allways look on the
bright side of life.
--
Mladen Gogala
Oracle DBA
Ext. 121
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