[opendtv] news: A Thin Digital TV, Without the Fat Price
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2004 08:22:08 -0500
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/18/technology/circuits/18tube.html
A Thin Digital TV, Without the Fat Price
By SETH SCHIESEL
Published: November 18, 2004
EVEN in a big-screen era, most people don't spend $6,000 or $8,000 on
a television. Over all, more than two-thirds of the TV's sold in the
United States this year will cost under $400, and around 90 percent
will cost less than $1,500, according to electronics analysts and
executives.
And fortunately for the budget conscious, slim digital televisions
are getting a lot cheaper. Non-HDTV plasma displays have proved
particularly popular, and compact rear-projection sets are
increasingly available, as are liquid-crystal-display models at small
and moderate screen sizes.
Electronics executives, in fact, say consumers appear to care a lot
more about getting a thin television than they do about high
definition. "What the industry has found out this year is that people
are willing to give up a bit on picture quality in order to have the
coolness of the flat-panel look," said Ed Wolff, a vice president at
Panasonic's display group.
That is why perhaps the hottest new segment in the TV business has
been what is known as the enhanced-definition plasma set. While such
models do not offer full high-definition quality, they have enough
pixels to display DVD's in all their glory and, even on normal
broadcasts, are usually a step up from conventional analog sets.
Furthermore, they cost around $2,000 less than a high-definition set
of the same size.
For instance, it is now possible to buy a 42-inch enhanced-definition
plasma set from a lesser-known manufacturer for around $2,000, or
from a big name like Panasonic or Samsung for around $3,000. A
high-definition plasma set at the same size costs around $5,500 from
Panasonic or as much as $8,000 from a top-line maker like Sony, and a
high-definition L.C.D. set can be still more.
Mr. Wolff said that while the industry had been predicting nationwide
sales of 500,000 or 600,000 plasma sets this year, the figure now
seems sure to exceed 700,000.
In fact, Sean M. Wargo, director for industry analysis at the
Consumer Electronics Association, said that around 60 percent of the
plasma sets sold in the nation this year would be enhanced
definition, at an average wholesale price of around $2,900, while
high definition makes up only around 40 percent, at an average price
of about $4,800. (Industry experts say the standard markup in
consumer electronics is about 20 percent.)
Two years ago, Mr. Wargo said, about 70 percent of plasma sets were
high-definition. (For technical reasons, L.C.D. units do not have a
similarly large cost difference in upgrading from enhanced definition
to high definition, which is why few enhanced-definition L.C.D. units
are available.)
As head of the television team at Circuit City, Tom Crowell has come
to know the psychology of the television buyer. "What's been
fascinating are the sacrifices that customers are willing to make to
get the flat panel," Mr. Crowell said. "They are willing to give up
high definition, because very good is good enough for most people.
It's a lot better than what they have in their house now and DVD's
are in ED quality. The desire to get the thin form factor is a
primary motivator for a lot of people."
But it is not the primary motivator for every consumer. And for a
real high-definition television in a big flat panel from a name-brand
maker, you are still almost certainly going to spend more than $4,000.
Some experts say that if mass is no object (say, 200 pounds) and if
you do not need a screen much bigger than 40 inches, the best
high-definition image quality still comes from the latest flat-screen
direct-view cathode-ray televisions. "I think C.R.T. is still the
best, if you can handle the bulk," said Michael R. Fidler, a Sony
senior vice president for marketing. And for the cheapest HDTV, a
digital C.R.T. is the best bet.
But if a C.R.T. is too fat and a flat panel is too expensive, HDTV is
also available in new digital rear-projection models that are often
only around 18 inches deep, even at a screen size of 42 inches or
more. In fact, the boxy analog rear-projection set is clearly on the
way out; Mr. Wolff of Panasonic, for instance, said that his company
wanted get out of the analog rear-projection business next year.
The new digital rear-projection technologies are known collectively
as microdisplay units, although their screens are anything but micro.
They are not as thin as plasma and L.C.D. flat panels, but they are a
lot cheaper. Samsung has been perhaps the most aggressive in
marketing its microdisplay sets, but even a top-line maker like Sony
offers a 42-inch high-definition microdisplay model for around
$2,500. That mix of size and function is why makers are projected to
sell around 1.3 million microdisplay sets this year, almost twice the
sales of plasma sets.
And then there are those whose screen-size ambitions may extend only
to 27, 23 or even (horrors!) 21 inches.
Because it is inefficient to make small plasma monitors, L.C.D.
dominates the market for flat panels at smaller sizes, which is why
they have become so popular in kitchens, dens and dorm rooms. But
L.C.D. flat-panel sets often cost twice as much as their standard
C.R.T. counterparts. For instance, Sony's 23-inch L.C.D. model (which
requires a separate tuner to display high-definition images) costs
$1,800. A similarly equipped 27-inch C.R.T. model costs only $750.
If you end up just buying another analog television this year, do not
feel inadequate. It is possible to buy a 27-inch flat-screen C.R.T.
for under $300 that surpasses the picture quality of televisions that
cost $800 five years ago. Of the roughly 26 million stand-alone
televisions that Americans will buy this year - that is, those not
including a VCR or DVD player - more than 75 percent will have
old-fashioned analog tubes.
And next year those snazzy digital models will be even cheaper.
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