[opendtv] News: Holiday HDTV Shipments Could Fall
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 20 Nov 2008 19:16:39 -0500
http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6616231.html?nid=2387&source=title&rid=341637829
Holiday HDTV Shipments Could Fall
George Winslow -- Multichannel News, 11/18/2008 1:52:00 PM
A slumping economy and woes in several large retailers could produce
the first ever drop in sales of high-definition TV sets during the
fourth quarter, according to Paul Gagnon, director of North America
TV market research at DisplaySearch, which tracks shipments to
retailers.
"We see a pretty dismal outlook for fourth-quarter shipments," Gagnon
said. "I think we could see on a unit basis, shipments actually
decline one to two percentage points year over year in the fourth
quarter. That is pretty significant because it would be the first
year-over-year decline in fourth quarter shipments for flat panels,
in particular, ever."
That prediction highlights how quickly the economy has gone south in
recent months. In August, when DisplaySearch was updating its fourth
quarter estimates, the company was still projecting a 1% to 2%
increase.
Gagnon said TV sales in July and August remained "pretty good" and
third quarter shipments showed a 21% year over year increase for LCD
TVs and a 20% increase for plasma TVs.
But, as markets plummeted in late September, consumers put the brakes
on spending and the outlook for retail sales darkened.
"Since then, Best Buy has been talking about a dramatic slowdown in
their demand and sales at Circuit City deteriorated so badly in
September and October that they had to file for bankruptcy," Gagnon
said. "When you have the two largest consumer electronics retailers
reporting dismal performance at the beginning of the fourth quarter
that doesn't bode well for the HD category."
Retailers are also likely to offer heavier than expected discounts.
Gagnon is predicting discounts in the "mid-teens to high-teens year
over year for most screen sizes," much deeper than the "high-single
digits to low-teens" price cuts the company was predicting only a few
months ago.
Still, there are several bright spots in the outlook. HDTVs are
likely to outperform other types of consumer electronics and some
stores, such as Walmart have been reporting strong demand. Price
conscious consumers are also likely to embrace smaller screen sizes.
"Unlike the early adopters of HDTV, who were keen on having the
biggest screen size, the highest resolution and the most advanced
technology, the next wave of growth will come from the second half of
the population that hasn't already adopted HDTV," he said.
"Unfortunately that group is more price sensitive, so I think the
character of the growth is going to be in more basic models and more
modest screen size than a lot of manufacturers would hope for."
In the run-up to the digital transition next year, Gagnon also notes
that sales of the traditional CRT (cathode-ray tube) sets have
improved. CRT sales actually increased in the third quarter compared
to the second quarter, reversing significant declines in recent
quarters.
"This economy is giving a boost to some of the technologies that were
fading and the CRT is seeing a bit of a revival right now," he said.
"Consumers going to the store for a new digital TV are seeing they
can get a CRT for about half the price."
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