[opendtv] Re: LA Times: From binge-viewing to cord-cutting: Four takeaways from the 2015 TCA press tour
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2015 02:44:00 +0000
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
I notice some "self-soothing" there, at the end.
I noticed you ignored most of the meaningful information in this article.
That's because they aren't the most important. Most of what you highlight is
not news and rather obvious by now (at least on this list), so it may even end
up sounding rather banal? And some of it is what I said above: "self-soothing."
I'll show and example.
"Netflix competes with us for audience, while buying previous seasons of our
popular dramas, many of which perform quite well on their service," she said.
"The truth is we're all part of one big content universe."
Aside from the fact that we know this already, it does point out one statistic
that I'm pretty certain Craig missed. When we were adding up how much TV is
consumed online ca. beginning of 2015, and came up with a very conservative
number of 30%, which is more likely a lot closer to 40%, that number was **just
TV programs**. TV shows.
For example, it included use of Netflix for time-shifted TV network content,
but did not include other Netflix material, such as movies. Ditto with Hulu. So
in fact, quite a bit more "TV material," let's call it, is viewed online, than
just that 30-40%. By now, over 50% is entirely likely.
One term that popped up multiple times was "experiment:"
This makes me chuckle. "Experiment," with new services and options, is one
thing. And sure, that's ALWAYS the case. Reality TV was also "experiment." Game
shows are initially "experiment." Big deal. What does that prove?
But to think that use of the Internet for TV, overall, is still "experiment" is
silly. I've been watching TV online, initially only for catch-up service, for
about 10 years now. To think that to the congloms, this Internet streaming is
all "experiment," simply lacks credibility. I'm not sure why Craig feels the
need to insist on this.
"NBC's Greenblatt revealed that what actually happened was far from a
binge-fest. In the end, 94% of the 'Aquarius' audience watched the traditional
way, while just 6% watched online."
Self-soothing, and proves nothing. See what the Ericsson report from today
said: "ease of use." "The traditional way" is what they're used to, but of
course, that has been changing over time. Aquarius would much more readily have
been watched on-or-immediately-after a given time 0, if only people knew how to
make this happen, and were given that option.
So, this is something Craig finds "important," while I see it as evidence of
"self-soothing" on their part. And didn't bother to highlight it.
The slide tells us that 90% of TV viewers are multitasking when the
TV is on. Slide 13 tells us only 22% of this multitasking is
related to the program on the TV.
You should pay attention to the Ericsson report on this. Especially take a look
at what people do with linear TV ads, and then ask yourself what this says
about the likelihood that ads on linear TV will have any higher status, in
short order. Live sports might be the only exception.
But the Deloitte study provides one statistic that Bert must find
to be quite frustrating.
Why frustrating? Clearly, Internet access is the most important to just about
everyone, at 94%. Cable/satellite already slipped to 80%, and is trending
downward, and I did the numbers on that already. And mobile service plans have
nothing to do with any of this. Streaming video source is only 54%, but
obviously that's rising, as cord cutting is accelerating.
Trends, Craig. Trends are the only thing that matters.
Bert
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