[opendtv] Re: IETF mboned working group co-chair on next gen Internet TV
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 7 Jan 2011 06:51:15 -0500
At 3:12 PM -0600 1/6/11, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
A bit lengthy, but definitely worth a read.
Agreed. Thanks for posting this Bert!
His main points are, as I read it anyway,
1. The Internet quickly becomes the dominant distribution medium for
any service, once it has been upgraded to be capable of carrying
that type of service. For Internet TV, we may just now be arriving
at the installed capacity and installed base of routers with the
enabling protocols.
Seems inevitable. Unfortunately we are currently caught up in the
nexus of technological change and politics. Clearly the technical
solutions exist and can be deployed today. But it may take a few
years to work through the political battles over Internet regulation
and regulation of the content marketplace.
2. IP Multicast must be made available for Internet TV to become
practical for mass viewing. A transitional technique, AMT (anysource
multicast without explicit tunnels), is now becoming available on
ISP routers. He places much hope on AMT.
3. Cablecos can reinvent themselves to benefit from this.
I'm not so sanguine about AMT as a real enabler, because the unicast
portion of ISP networks would still become jammed up during such
events as the Superbowl. And the unicast portion is now most of the
ISP networks. However, his view is that ISPs would quickly install
native IP multicast throughout their networks, once they notice AMT
traffic ramping up. Could be, since techniques for charging
appropriately for such multicasts, which were lacking previously,
are also being developed.
I'm with you on this point Bert. The question I would ask is how
difficult is it to enable IP Multicast on the current unicast
portions of the "public" Internet. The author also noted that there
is a huge opportunity to enable IP multicast when routers are
upgraded to IPv6. This seems like the logical solution, but may be
impacted by "political opportunity." That is, the cable companies in
particular may drag their feet if they feel that they are enabling
competitors...
My other doubt on multicast is that it entails the same kind of "by
appointment TV" that people are moving away from, except for some of
the more important sports programs. So I'm not sure just how much
impact it would have overall.
Clearly there is room (and need) for both. And it may turn out that
there is an economic benefit to multicasting; this would depend on
the ability of ISPs or others in the path to charge more for
unicasts. What is quite feasible is to multicast to local cache,
especially during non peak hours. So for example, a new movie or a
new episode of a TV show could be multicast to the local cache of
"subscribers" on a specific date, perhaps at 2 am. These subscribers
may have paid for the content or it could be ad supported; the key
point here is that the connection is enabled via the action of the
viewers (subscriber to or buy this program), and a single multicast
would deliver to potentially millions of viewers who would then view
the content on demand, on a range of devices.
In the end, I think the following paragraph from Giuliano's article
is the most important:
This is a critical characteristic of truly revolutionary
developments- not merely augmenting or improving existing
functionality, but rather making possible a new array of
functionality that was previously unfeasible and paving the way for
the inconceivable. Where the Web and the browser were the enabling
technologies for the multitude of innovations that we have since
experienced with the Internet, multicast will be the critical
enabler for an unforeseen world of new functions and services
towards which NextGenTV will evolve.
We have seen the TV industry dragging its feet for more than two
decades now, trying to sustain a dying business model. To be fair
they have done a remarkable job keeping the old model alive.
But the signs that it is about to be challenged are everywhere:
- the technology is falling into place to bypass the gatekeepers;
- the cost of MVPD service is reaching absurd levels, leaving plenty
of money on the table to support alternatives;
- The old formulaic content is dying; audiences for episodic TV shows
have declined dramatically, and the number of new shows being
produced is down significantly. And people have learned via the web
that they can access all kinds of niche content. Giuliano talks about
low cost producers, like high schools that can leverage their sports
and other activities to create content.
In other words, the stage is set for another revolution...
But most of the revolutionary stuff is yet to be invented.
Regards
Craig
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