[opendtv] Re: Competition
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 11 Aug 2015 00:47:01 +0000
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
What is amazing is your insistence that the ability to access content
on demand means all that came before must die.
You know how the telephone network, then the Internet, pretty much displaced
the old telegraph network entirely? "Telegrams" still existed for a number of
years, but they were not transmitted on that old, separate telegraph net
anymore. It's this sort of effect. When the new network can accommodate what
the old one was doing, plus a lot more, the new one displaces the old one,
Craig. Once again, I think about these things in engineering terms. Not letting
ambiguous popular culture terms like "TV broadcast" confuse the issue, as you
do. Not letting your nostalgic affection for "linear delivery" derail the
discussion, as you do.
There are still tens of millions who will watch the live linear
network premieres. I keep showing you the numbers, but you ignore
their reality.
Here is the most recent example of Craig once again attempting to derail the
discussion. That luddites exist is only of tangential interest here, Craig.
The easiest way, the most credible way, of guaranteeing any sort
of QoS, in fast and efficient **packet-switched networks**, is to
provide plenty of excess bandwidth. ...
But that excess capacity does not exist in many cases.
It does/can exist, especially if the MVPDs would quit wasting last-mile
bandwidth by filling it up with ~4.5 Gb/s of always-there broadcast traffic.
The broadband architecture is one in which the end user only uses the bandwidth
he needs at that time. So a household with 4 simultaneous HDTV programs running
needs about 60-80 Mb/s absolute worst case, and much less than that in practice
(thanks to stat mux), **not** 4.5 Gb/s. And upstream, there are ways of filling
up the distributed servers using "out of band" links, as we have already
discussed, and as the MVPDs know well with their own VOD in-network service.
You do not have excess capacity on your DSL service
That's true, although we can stream two simultaneous programs even there. And
as we already discussed, Verizon keeps pressuring us to go to FiOS, and has
stopped maintaining their DSL service. If something breaks, they told us either
we move to FiOS or find another ISP. Well okay, I can accept that. So excess
bandwidth already exists. And more than that, the streaming protocols are
self-adjusting. If congestion occurs, you get a reduced bandwidth stream until
the condition eases.
The infrastructure is nowhere close ...
Cycled through that enough times. My head is spinning. Tell us how that cycle
went last few times around, Craig. I can tell you exactly, because it has been
repreated so many times.
The transition will take at least a decade, probably two to three.
I asked you to provide substantiation. You really need to do the leg work,
Craig, because we have seen that otherwise, you just won't learn. In short, you
are completely wrong.
But the old businesses survive.
Yes and no. The old businesses that survive are those that adapt. A lot small
bookstores didn't survive, for example, although bookselling business has.
Now there is a thriving industry selling Apps and services for your
smart phone. But the telcos are still thriving. Obviously the wired
MVPDs will survive as broadband providers.
Telcos and MVPDs. Two examples of businesses that thrive ONLY to the extent
that they were smart enough to change.
Show me how to get ESPN without buying a bundle of linear streaming
channels.
Been over this circle a bunch of times too, Craig. You claimed that your
much-loved "the bundle" would never unravel, and it was not long after that
that John Skipper proved you wrong. Now you try to change your words to "a
bundle," from "the bundle," and I've already pointed this out to you many times.
The simple fact is, a lot of subscribers are making welfare payments to ESPN,
in a traditional MVPD. A lot of these got sick of it and shaved or cut the
cord. Disney understood. The Sling TV model changed that dramatically.
You do not listen. You try to put words in their mouths,
That's funny, Craig, because I remember distinctly quoting Bewkes, Skipper,
Moonves, and several others, time and time and time again, when you were
obstinately stuck on "will never happen." It's you who won't listen. These guys
are making the changes that you insisted "would never happen." And you still
don't listen, even after you're proven convincingly wrong.
Bert
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