[opendtv] Re: AT&T to launch DirecTV Now streaming video service before 2017 - CNET
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2016 08:59:29 -0400
On Oct 24, 2016, at 4:23 PM, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
You might at least wonder why both Dish and DirecTV have been able
to put together Internet distribution deals while others have been
shut out.
Because necessity is the mother of invention?
Unlikely.
Or could it be that both DBS services have a strong relationship with he
content owners, a national footprint, and uplink facilities that already have
access to ALL major network feeds and almost all local station feed?
The DBS companies have to do something tout de suite, so one began with
Sling, the other merging with AT&T.
Sling is an obvious experiment. Their agreement with Disney allows Disney to
pull the plug if too many subscribers cut the cord and subscribe to Sling.
AT&T is moving the ball in a slightly different direction, providing major
incentives to those who subscribe to both DirecTV and AT&T cellular.
The others, the cabled MVPDs, instead, were happier to delay the inevitable.
They can sell broadband service and they can achieve an online presence,
while retaining the legacy walled garden model, via TVE. But only you think
that this state of affairs is permanent.
Not permanent Bert. It is transitional.
DirecTV has been adding subscribers consistently, even as the
geo-limited MVPDs (including AT&T UVERSE) have been shrinking.
Prove it, Craig. Here are two links that explain why the urgency:
Already did.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/251793/pay-tv-providers-with-the-largest-number-of-subscribers-in-the-us/
This projects a drop in traditional MVPD subscriptions in the next 4 years.
Clearly, companies that don't play in the Internet domain will be at greater
risk.
Clearly AT&T is ALSO playing in the internet domain. As for the Statistica
forecast, I strongly suspect they are correct. Once there are viable internet
streaming alternatives to the facilities based MVPD bundles there could be a
large number of homes that switch to these new services; even more if there is
a significant price advantage.
http://www.statisticbrain.com/tv-cable-subscriber-statistics/
And this second link shows the demographics of DBS subscribers. Compare the
uptake of DBS with Netflix, Hulu Plus, and Amazon, for example, in the
different age groups. (Let me belabor this because you might otherwise miss
it. The Internet services are increasingly preferred by the younger age
groups. DBS is the other way around.) DBS has to evolve. They know it, even
if you have a hard time understanding trend lines.
Irrelevant. Young people grow up, start families and subscribe to MVPD bundles.
And more than half of all MVPD subscribers ALSO subscribe to Netflix, Hulu Plus
or Amazon Prime video.
The laws of the marketplace leverage technology, they are not driven
by it.
Another subject you're driving into the ditch, Craig. Technology creates
markets, and technology will often either annihilate, or at least drastically
alter, legacy markets. This is too obvious to have to belabor. It is patently
ridiculous to suggest that technology has nothing to do with markets.
The only thing that is obvious in your position is you have no clue what people
will pay for, because you refuse to pay for TV. Yes there is a pending shift
from geo-limited facilities based bundles to online equivalents. Nobody knows
how long this transition will last, but we do know that the content owners are
not going to accept less money for their content.
What they appear to be doing is eliminating the legacy middlemen, and replacing
them with distribution partners they own or trust, in order to reduce the
negative pressure of ever increasing pricing for the bundles. So there will be
an immediate price reduction, which will give them the headroom they need to
keep increasing the subscriber fees.
But one must ask how many nearly identical bundles the market
can support,
And I already explained this to you, eons ago. With migration to Internet
distribution, available to every household (at least in the US), these
competing services WILL NOT BE ABLE TO offer identical bundles. That's
another key difference between legacy MVPDs and OTT sites. It makes no sense
for OTT sites to offer identical bundles. It's not at all a case of simply
moving the legacy bundles to IP delivery. That might hold for TVE, but it's
hardly the future.
We disagree. Nobody has moved a fully competitive MVPD bundle to the Internet
yet; Hulu and AT&T say they will do this by the end of the year. The bundles
may not be. Identical, but they will all offer the same live network feeds. We
have already seen the DBS version of Dish move to a smaller core bundle with
more customer customization via add on mini bundles.
You can expect more flexibility as the bundles move to the Internet, but I
would not expect ala carte.
Funny how it takes Craig years to finally understand something, and then he
pretends that I just got it. Content is everything, Craig. The legacy MVPDs'
role is being changed by technological evolution. For some reason, this is
something you have fought tooth and nail to grasp.
Yup. Bert is starting to get it. The legacy MVPV role is the provider of
monopoly broadband. The content owners are eliminating a middleman to reduce
pressure on the price of the bundles.
So tell us, Craig. According to the latest stat YOU provided, what percentage
of TV is being viewed on demand these days? This is something else you have
been fighting tooth and nail to get.
There are two answers.
1. A large percentage of MVPD homes are time shifting via DVR. I do not
consider this to be "on demand," as it requires forethought to program the DVR.
A small percentage of MVPD homes are accessing in system on demand services
when available.
2. About 27% of all TV viewing is true on demand via Internet streaming.
Regards
Craig
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